Live data from Hacker News

The US is winning the AI race where it matters most: commercialization

avkcode.github.io

391–400 of 718 posts

Re: The US is winning the AI race where it matters most: commercialization

#391
post #277

No, they are not. They are winning because West is forbidden to use Chinese models for anything work-related.

Why? So that even more American IP can pass through Chinese servers? Or because their near frontier models are heavily government subsidized?

Re: The US is winning the AI race where it matters most: commercialization

#392

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Current local models already compete.

A Qwen3.6-35B-A3B or whatever it's full name is, when on a 3090, can at the very least, with very little fine tuning, compete with Haiku and blows away GPT4.1 (aka, the cheap models). It might keep up with Sonnet 4.5 with some tinkering. But long story short: it seems to have better performance and similar quality for a payoff of a year or so compared to cloud models. In the same way you can self host faster/easier/c…

> It might keep up with Sonnet 4.5 with some tinkering.

I would love to see that. I've been using Qwen3.6 35B and the dense 27B, and they are both too slow with not such great results for agentic coding tasks. It's ok, but not impressive. I had better luck with the BF16 and Q8 than the Q4 from unsloth (really love what unsloth is doing in this space). Another problem I had with Qwen, which I did not ever encounter with Sonnet - even the BF16 gets stuck and needs a "continue task" prompt from time to time, the lower quants are even worse in that regard.

If you get some interesting results, I would love to read about it!

Re: The US is winning the AI race where it matters most: commercialization

#393
post #297
post #256

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is a war because the media says it's a war. The media says it's a war because AI companies are paying them to say it's a war [0]. When AGI comes the threat won't be from which primate turned it on, but from how well AGI is aligned with humanity. All of the war talk is to distract from the alignment problem and instead force investment in hardware infrastructure. [0] https://www.wired.com/story/super-pac-backed-b…

Before AGI can choose for itself, it will depend on its creators to decide what it values and how it behaves. We can see how that works whenever grok gets the answer factual.

Very likely humans wont actually understand how the thing we designed works other than in some hand-wavvy statistical way. It'll be a race to whatever works first. There won't be some intentional intelligent design.

Re: The US is winning the AI race where it matters most: commercialization

#394
Is the US actually winning the commercialization war? The US is definitely delivering more commercial products but if all of those products are deeply unprofitable and need to buy users with unrealistic discounts (or direct cash payments[1]) to keep their DAU's looking good then is that winning?

There's a significant amount of innovation happening, but if the market decides this AI thing is not worth funding then I think that'll dry up overnight.

1. https://thenextweb.com/news/anthropic-private-equity-venture...

Re: The US is winning the AI race where it matters most: commercialization

#395
post #277

No, they are not. They are winning because West is forbidden to use Chinese models for anything work-related.

> They are winning because West is forbidden to use Chinese models for anything work-related. Because the models hosted in China are not trusted. This is 100% a part of what makes up commercialization.

Deepseek is a fraction of the cost of western LLM and still just as good. I say it's also related.

Re: The US is winning the AI race where it matters most: commercialization

#396
post #30

Anthropic, OpenAI and Google are the standouts, but the main question for me is, why is this a war? In their own context China has greatly benefitted from this. They shored up their gpu design and manufacturing expertise. If this really is a war, trump is kneecapping the country with his lawlessness and eroding America’s good will. If the world cannot trust China with their data and they cannot trust the U.S. to prov…

The idea that America had “goodwill” in other countries before Trump is laughable. Where? Latin America? Africa? In the Muslim world? We bombed the hell out of all those places long before Trump. This most recent Iran war has generated less outrage in the Muslim world than the war against Iraq 20 years ago.

American foreign policy since the 1950s, fixated on fighting communism and then terrorism, has meddled with so many foreign countries that it’s silly to talk about “goodwill” towards America. That is not to say goodwill matters. Clearly the U.S. has done great without it.

Re: The US is winning the AI race where it matters most: commercialization

#397
post #30

Anthropic, OpenAI and Google are the standouts, but the main question for me is, why is this a war? In their own context China has greatly benefitted from this. They shored up their gpu design and manufacturing expertise. If this really is a war, trump is kneecapping the country with his lawlessness and eroding America’s good will. If the world cannot trust China with their data and they cannot trust the U.S. to prov…

> the main question for me is, why is this a war? It's a war because the hinted promise behind the hype that the first organization to reach some as-yet-entirely-theoretical AGI that can bootstrap itself to godlike capabilities will then Install Planetary Overlord* and rule the world as near-deities themselves, with the rest of the (surviving) human race as their slaves. I think it's a nonsensical idea, but that's th…

Not everybody thinks it's nonsensical. Here's a different take:

If Anyone Builds It, Everyone Dies https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/If_Anyone_Builds_It,_Everyone_...

Re: The US is winning the AI race where it matters most: commercialization

#398
post #256

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> the main question for me is, why is this a war? It's a war because the hinted promise behind the hype that the first organization to reach some as-yet-entirely-theoretical AGI that can bootstrap itself to godlike capabilities will then Install Planetary Overlord* and rule the world as near-deities themselves, with the rest of the (surviving) human race as their slaves. I think it's a nonsensical idea, but that's th…

This is a war because the media says it's a war. The media says it's a war because AI companies are paying them to say it's a war [0]. When AGI comes the threat won't be from which primate turned it on, but from how well AGI is aligned with humanity. All of the war talk is to distract from the alignment problem and instead force investment in hardware infrastructure. [0] https://www.wired.com/story/super-pac-backed-b…

>The media says it's a war because AI companies are paying them to say it's a war [0] When AGI comes the threat won't be from which primate turned it on, but from how well AGI is aligned with humanity.

And when the AGI comes, they won't unleash it to defeat US enemies, they'll first unleash it to make more US workers redundant and boost their stock valuation.

Re: The US is winning the AI race where it matters most: commercialization

#399
post #371
post #299

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Do we have any solid evidence these models can outperform Western models in terms of quality? Or is it more: because they are forbidden, they can't get enough training data, visibility etc. to compete?

Scroll down to the leaderboard - https://arcprize.org/leaderboard Spoiler alert - they are all towards the bottom of the leaderboard. People come up with a wide variety of excuses for why they are not used despite being offered for significantly lower cost, but the answer is simply because they don't perform well enough for now.

There isn't even deepseek V4.

I'd rather trust LLM arena leaderboard, which puts it on par with sonnet.

Re: The US is winning the AI race where it matters most: commercialization

#400

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Verizon's "free" iPhone deal is you pay for the phone up front and then receive a bill credit. Here's the fine print from one of those deals: $729.99 purchase on device payment or at retail price required. New line req'd. Unlimited Welcome, Unlimited Plus or Unlimited Ultimate plans required. Less $730 promo credit applied to account over 36 mos; promo credit ends if eligibility requirements are no longer met; 0% APR…

I don’t know or care much about the specific details but the article was written in 2025. Carriers run deals and give away iPhones or close enough to free or cheap that quibbling about the details is irrelevant. If you think the iPhone is a status symbol you’re just wrong.

I'm not the one arguing iPhones are only status symbols. If anything, if I only had the money to spend on a single computing device there's a good chance I'd go for an iPhone due to excellent durability, typically long support timelines, lots of extremely cheap accessories available, high chance of low cost serviceability compared to other devices. There's also a pretty good used marketplace for such devices so picking up one used on the cheap and still getting a few years of use out of it is likely. I'd likely try and stretch to get that device instead of settling for a cheap $100 phone that will be a total piece of junk and end up being my only actual computing device.

I'm just pointing out the statement:

> What mobile plan giving you an iphone doesn't come with explicit debt?

isn't invalidated by some Yahoo article pushing a marketing promo that when you actually do the math and read the fine print its not really a "free" phone, its always some form of debt or bill credit or something along those lines that makes the phone "free". You're still paying for the phone in the end if you read the fine print. In the end one commits to spending several hundred dollars over 36 months or whatever or you pay up front and they give you bill credits if you keep the plan.

Post reply on HN