$60 billion with a B???
SpaceX says it has agreement to acquire Cursor for $60B
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Re: SpaceX says it has agreement to acquire Cursor for $60B
#392Earlier quoted context omitted.
The entire space launch market is about $20B with multiple competitors in 2025. And by the most generous estimates it is going to be $80B by 2035. They can reuse the rockets as much as they like, the company isn’t worth $1.7T.
How can you say “The company isn’t worth X”? Isn’t the company worth exactly as much as people are willing to pay for its shares? I don’t personally think Google is worth $4T but the share price says otherwise.
You’re comparing a publicly traded company where the supply demand economics have established a price to a company whose financials are not public, and is valuing itself at $1.7T and forcing everyone’s 401Ks and pension funds to fund it. Not the same thing.
Re: SpaceX says it has agreement to acquire Cursor for $60B
#393Earlier quoted context omitted.
They had like $16B in revenue last year, half from Starlink. That’s just money in the door and the underwriters seem to think the business is worth $1.75T.
If underwriters think it’s worth $1.7T with a $16B revenue (not profit), they’re doing the same thing as the credit agencies did in 2008 by giving underwater mortgage backed securities a AAA rating.
It's not the same at all. Do you know how an IPO roadshow works at all or are you just spouting bullshit?
Re: SpaceX says it has agreement to acquire Cursor for $60B
#394What are we even doing here. I have no idea what this has to do with aerospace, but I know a bit about software and this does not look great. Cursor is obviously on a serious decline and has little to no moat in the area they are building in (IDE), which we kinda now know is maybe not even the right area (CLI). I feel like this is just a bad move?
AFAIK cursor is basically the only player right now not subsidizing tokens out the ass, and has been seeing solid growth across individual and enterprise with almost every model performing best in their harness. Not sure how that’s a serious decline.
Claude/chatGPT are not subsidizing tokens via the API and are profitable for most enterprise consumption. This meme that they lose money on every query has zero evidence and is wrong outside of the 20/200$ a month plans.
Re: SpaceX says it has agreement to acquire Cursor for $60B
#395Re: SpaceX says it has agreement to acquire Cursor for $60B
#396Earlier quoted context omitted.
They had like $16B in revenue last year, half from Starlink. That’s just money in the door and the underwriters seem to think the business is worth $1.75T.
the ability to mine the moon or asteroid belt seems extremely lucrative, the logistics of transporting materials to earth costs less than shipping them across the ocean, an astounding level of value creation.
This can’t a serious comment.
Did you notice the size of the Artemis rocket and the size of the payload it sends to the moon and back?
Do you expect there to be diamonds just laying these on the moon surface, no mining required.
Re: SpaceX says it has agreement to acquire Cursor for $60B
#397Earlier quoted context omitted.
You’ll pay massive penalties on that, another option is options (heh) but I’m not finance-literate enough to know how to pull it off.
I’ve made my peace with the “massive penalties”. I benefited from employer match in the past. I want the money now, not when I retire.
You gotta do what you think is best, but I hope for future you's sake you decide to not pull the money out. Or if you do you have other retirement plans.
I'm trying to help my parents now their at retirement age and am seeing first hand what not planning for your future looks like. They hit retirement with nothing but a small social security check every month. Not even enough to cover rent in most places.
I don't know how much you have in your 401k, but it will be worth literally hundreds of thousands more if you pull it out when you retire. You aren't just paying the penalties now, you're paying for potentially decades of compounding.
Re: SpaceX says it has agreement to acquire Cursor for $60B
#398Earlier quoted context omitted.
Matt Levine writes a bit about this - the Elon Musk Mars Conglomerate. And really if you're investing into e.g. SpaceX you're not investing into SpaceX you're investing into the Elon Musk Mars Conglomerate. And most people seem to want that. Tesla's the odd one out: it's public but it's still in there, although Musk would probably prefer it to be private too.
> Elon Musk Mars Conglomerate That’s SpaceX’s version of Tesla’s self driving car pipe dream Edit - I use self-driving car and Autopilot interchangeably
It's so pipe-dreamy that I used it for an hour today through SF rush hour traffic. Clearly never going to work though, right? right???
Re: SpaceX says it has agreement to acquire Cursor for $60B
#399Earlier quoted context omitted.
It is adversely selected, but it's not debt, it's equity, so price action can go real fast and nobody will be burned except folks who soberly-or-not opted into this. Everyone _knows_ Elon is the way he is, so nobody will be _surprised_ at things. No surprise, no crisis.
They're going to force a S&P500 index listing on IPO day so we're all going to be forced to baghold this regardless of if we want to or not unless you've got $0 in any major retirement fund.
What are you basing this on?
I'm not an expert but it looks to my like 80% of my allocation won't be tracking spacex, because it's mid cap or small cap etc, and the 20% that's in the vanguard growth index might? I assume whoever sets the rules for the fund could change the rules to say companies must be listed for X months if they want to avoid this, right?
And I can change my allocation.
edit: Actually wait, isn't it only nasdaq 100 that's tracking it early, after 15 days rather than 3 months of trading? So 0% of my 401k is exposed to buying it quickly after IPO already, I think.