I was at a big tech for last 10 years, quit my job last month - I feel 50x more productive outside than inside. Here is my take on AI's impact on productivity: First let's review what are LLMs objectively good at: 1. Writing boiler plate code 2. Translating between two different coding languages (migration) 3. Learning new things: Summarizing knowledge, explaining concepts 4. Documentation, menial tasks At a big tech…
2. Translating between two different coding languages (migration) I have a game written in XNA 100% of the code is there, including all the physics that I hand-wrote. All the assets are there. I tried to get Gemini and Claude to do it numerous times, always with utter failure of epic proportions with anything that's actually detailed. 1 - my transition from the lobby screen into gameplay? 0% replicated on all attempt…
Labor market impacts of AI: A new measure and early evidence
391–400 of 584 posts
Re: Labor market impacts of AI: A new measure and early evidence
#392Earlier quoted context omitted.
I find LLMs are good at essentially boilerplate code. It's clear what to do and it needs to be typed in. Or areas where I really have no idea where to start, because I'm not familiar with the codebase. I find anything else, I spend more time coaxing them into doing 85% of what I need that I'm better off doing it myself. So they're not useless but there's only so many times in a week that I need a function to pretty-p…
[flagged]
What I got sort of works, as in tests pass - this with Opus 4.5. It is usable, though it doesn't exist cleanly on errors despite working to death with Claude about this. On exception it exits dirtily and crashes, which is good enough for now. I had some fancy ideas about logging messages from the vendor to be able to replay them, to be able to then reproduce errors. Opus made a real hash of it, lots of "fuck it comment out the assert so the test passes". This part is unusable and worse, pollutes the working part of the project. It made a valiant effort at mocking the vendor API for testing but really badly, instead of writing 30 lines of general code, it wrote 200 lines of inconsistent special cases that don't even work altogether. Asked to fix it it just shuffles around the special cases and gets stuck.
It's written messily enough that I wouldn't touch this even to remove the dead code paths. I could block a few days for it to fix but frankly in that time I can redo it all and better. So while it works I'm not gonna touch it.
I did everything LLM proponents say. I discussed requirements. Agent had access to the API docs and vendor samples. I said think hard many times. Based on this we wrote a detailed spec, then detailed inplementation plan. I hand checked a lot of the high level definitions. And yet here I am. By the time Opus went away and started coding, we had the user facing API hammered out, key implementation details (callback -> queue -> async task in source thread routing messages etc), constraints (clean handling of exceptions, threadsafe etc). Tests it has to write. Any minor detail we didn't discuss to death was coded up like a bored junior.
And this also wasn't my first attempt, this was attempt #3. First attempt was like, here's the docs and samples, make me a Python async API. That was a disaster. Second was more like, let's discuss, make a spec, then off you go. No good. Even just taking the last attempt time, I would have spent less time doing this by hand myself from scratch.
Re: Labor market impacts of AI: A new measure and early evidence
#393People who are saying they're not seeing productivity boost, can you please share where is it failing? Because, I am terrified by the output I am getting while working on huge legacy codebases, it works. I described one of my workflow changes here: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=47271168 but in general compared to old way of working I am saving half of the steps consistently, whether its researching the codebas…
Sometimes I realise that this particular task has been slower than if I’d done it myself when I take in to account full wall clock time.
I can’t tell what type of task is going to work ahead of time yet.
Re: Labor market impacts of AI: A new measure and early evidence
#394Re: Labor market impacts of AI: A new measure and early evidence
#395Earlier quoted context omitted.
Advertising's foremost job is to sell the premise of advertising to business management. Selling the business's product is always secondary to that.
Always felt suspicious to me that so much of company dynamics are basically about selling yourself to management...and there's one team in the company who's full-time job is selling? Wonder how that will turn out.
Re: Labor market impacts of AI: A new measure and early evidence
#396Earlier quoted context omitted.
2. Translating between two different coding languages (migration) I have a game written in XNA 100% of the code is there, including all the physics that I hand-wrote. All the assets are there. I tried to get Gemini and Claude to do it numerous times, always with utter failure of epic proportions with anything that's actually detailed. 1 - my transition from the lobby screen into gameplay? 0% replicated on all attempt…
This matches my experience. Unless it's been done to death online (crud etc) it falls on its face every time.
Re: Labor market impacts of AI: A new measure and early evidence
#397Earlier quoted context omitted.
I'm not in translation, but a number of close friends are in the industry. Two trends I've noticed in the industry, which I think we're seeing mirrored in tech: 1. No one cares about quality. Even in fields you'd expect to require the 'human touch' (e.g. novel translation), publishers are replacing translators with AI. It doesn't matter if you have higher-level knowledge or skills if the company gains more from cutti…
It is not entirely true that no one cares about quality. I'd like to stay optimistic and believe that those who are demanding on the quality of their production will acquire sufficient market differentiation to prevail. After all, this has been Apple strategy since the 80's, and, even though there were some up's and down's, overall it's a success.
Re: Labor market impacts of AI: A new measure and early evidence
#398Earlier quoted context omitted.
I don’t see definitive evidence that there is some kind of Moore’s law for model improvement though. Just because this year’s model performs better than last year’s model doesn’t mean next year’s model will be another leap. Most of the big improvements this year seem to be around tooling - I still see Opus 4.6 (which is my daily driver at work) making lots of mistakes.
Things like the METR benchmark aren't sufficient? I mean Moore's law is just a rule of thumb but the curve fits METR just as well..
Re: Labor market impacts of AI: A new measure and early evidence
#399Earlier quoted context omitted.
1000x is ridiculous. What are you doing where that level of improvement is measurable. That means you are doing things that would have taken you a year of full-time work in less than half a day now. EDIT: Retracted, I think the example given below is reasonably valid.
I understand, but the improvement is actually more than that. It is not directly programming, but look at this page [1] for example. I spent years handcrafting parallel texts of English and Greek and had managed to put just under 400 books online. With AI, I managed to translate and put in parallel 1500 more books very quickly. At least 2/3 of those have never been translated into English, ever. That means I have don…
Re: Labor market impacts of AI: A new measure and early evidence
#400I was at a big tech for last 10 years, quit my job last month - I feel 50x more productive outside than inside. Here is my take on AI's impact on productivity: First let's review what are LLMs objectively good at: 1. Writing boiler plate code 2. Translating between two different coding languages (migration) 3. Learning new things: Summarizing knowledge, explaining concepts 4. Documentation, menial tasks At a big tech…
2. Translating between two different coding languages (migration) I have a game written in XNA 100% of the code is there, including all the physics that I hand-wrote. All the assets are there. I tried to get Gemini and Claude to do it numerous times, always with utter failure of epic proportions with anything that's actually detailed. 1 - my transition from the lobby screen into gameplay? 0% replicated on all attempt…
- Do not say: "just convert this"
- On critical sections you do a method-per-method-translation
- Dont forget: your 20.000 lines source at a whole will make any model to be distracted on longer tasks (and sessions, for sure)
- Do dedicated projects within Claude per each sub-module