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This time is different

shkspr.mobi

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Re: This time is different

#391

Post by jodrellblank »

Cthulhu_ wrote: post #338
jodrellblank wrote: post #329

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You think an artificial intelligence would have less impact on the world than the steam engine? The AI commentators are not saying that ELIZA will change the world, they’re saying that one of the big companies is moments away from an AGI. Sam Altman called a recent ChatGPT model a “PhD level expert”; wouldn’t infinite PhDs for $20/month or $200/month be transformative? That is, your objection isn’t the usual “LLMs ar…

There's potential there (with the pocket-PhDs), the question is whether it'll actually make a measurable difference in the long run. I mean I'm sure it will make a difference, the question is whether it's what they say it will be, and whether it'll be financially viable. At the current burn rate of the AI companies, it isn't - before long the first ones will have to give up. They won't die, they'll be subsumed into t…

> "I don't think LLMs will do something like that, it'll just output 10 people's worth of Stuff that will need some use."

This is why I said "isn’t the usual “LLMs aren’t going to be AGI”", but you still went straight for "LLMs aren't AGI", which was not in question.

AGI is what OpenAI says they are going for. That's the goal of all this trillion dollar investment, not to output 1000 screenplays a day, but to takeover the world, basically. What would infinite PhDs discover if they could hold all of Arxive in their 'heads' at once and see patterns in every experiment that's ever been done? What could they engineer and manufacture if they could 'concentrate' on millions of steps of a manufacturing process at once without getting fatigued or bored? What ideas could they test if they could be PhD level in a dozen subjects all at once?

Re: This time is different

#392

Post by [deleted] »

Imustaskforhelp wrote: post #308
seertaak wrote: post #237

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'd be remiss to point out we went from "LLMs are vaporware" to "people are becoming slaves to their LLMs" awful quick. > [I'm scared] you are growing dependent on stilts that could disappear any moment. First, I do control the RTX3070 I own, and that can actually do a pretty decent job nowadays with some of the 3B parameter models. Second, maybe if people like you showed as much concern for the fact that LGBT people…

> First, I do control the RTX3070 I own, and that can actually do a pretty decent job nowadays with some of the 3B parameter models. Quick question but what model are you exactly running with 3B parameter. The only decent model I can find which can compete sort of with Cloud models without costing a bank in GPU/RAM are the recently launched Qwen models (35A3B or 27B) which were released a week ago > First, I do contr…

[deleted]

Re: This time is different

#393

Post by camillomiller »

seertaak wrote: post #237
camillomiller wrote: post #181

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This comment is scary. You don’t control these technologies, you are growing dependent on stilts that could disappear any moment.

I'd be remiss to point out we went from "LLMs are vaporware" to "people are becoming slaves to their LLMs" awful quick. > [I'm scared] you are growing dependent on stilts that could disappear any moment. First, I do control the RTX3070 I own, and that can actually do a pretty decent job nowadays with some of the 3B parameter models. Second, maybe if people like you showed as much concern for the fact that LGBT people…

I am sorry, but literally fuck off. You don’t fucking know me. You don’t fucking know how much I do for the LGBTQ community, to which I belong, and honestly you just don’t fucking know shit about shit. Maybe you should start your journey by realizing how your problem is first and foremost the disgusting entitlement and victim mentality you show on this post. And also ask yourself why you seem to derive and perceive more empathy from stochastic sycophantic parrots than other human beings. But once again, let me reiterate: FUCK OFF.

Re: This time is different

#394

Post by artemonster »

seertaak wrote: post #153
artemonster wrote: post #137

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Can you elaborate your choice about asymmetric multimethods? I also tinker with my PL and wanted to hear your reasonings and ideas

Sure! First, here are references, in case you want to deep dive: 1. http://lucacardelli.name/Papers/Binary.pdf 2. https://www.researchgate.net/publication/221321423_Parasitic... Second, asymmetric multimethods give something up: symmetry is a desirable property -- it's more faithful to mathematics, for instance. There's a priori no reason to preference the first argument over the second. So why do I think they are pr…

Thanks for elaborated reply, both papers Ive seen too. I have mostly same views, but I really dislike that there is no clean solution for binary methods, i.e. add( float, int), where symmetric add(int, float) ends up being a boilerplate. Also I think in asymmetric case its hard to handle dispatch when it has failed to produce method when looking in first argument. i.e. dispatching "collide" with Asteroid, Ship, if collider method is found in Ship, how to bind "this", where does Asteroid is bound. Anyways, good luck with your experiments!

Re: This time is different

#395

Post by _zagj »

camillomiller wrote: post #393
seertaak wrote: post #237

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'd be remiss to point out we went from "LLMs are vaporware" to "people are becoming slaves to their LLMs" awful quick. > [I'm scared] you are growing dependent on stilts that could disappear any moment. First, I do control the RTX3070 I own, and that can actually do a pretty decent job nowadays with some of the 3B parameter models. Second, maybe if people like you showed as much concern for the fact that LGBT people…

I am sorry, but literally fuck off. You don’t fucking know me. You don’t fucking know how much I do for the LGBTQ community, to which I belong, and honestly you just don’t fucking know shit about shit. Maybe you should start your journey by realizing how your problem is first and foremost the disgusting entitlement and victim mentality you show on this post. And also ask yourself why you seem to derive and perceive m…

Peak HN: two people arguing over who's gayer in a thread about AI hype.

Re: This time is different

#396

Post by camillomiller »

_zagj wrote: post #395
camillomiller wrote: post #393

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I am sorry, but literally fuck off. You don’t fucking know me. You don’t fucking know how much I do for the LGBTQ community, to which I belong, and honestly you just don’t fucking know shit about shit. Maybe you should start your journey by realizing how your problem is first and foremost the disgusting entitlement and victim mentality you show on this post. And also ask yourself why you seem to derive and perceive m…

Peak HN: two people arguing over who's gayer in a thread about AI hype.

I’m arguing that I don’t need any deranged ai-addicted internet poster with a victim mentality to tell me how the fuck I live my life. Has nothing to do with my sexuality.

Re: This time is different

#397

Post by ineedasername »

Cthulhu_ wrote: post #338
jodrellblank wrote: post #329

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You think an artificial intelligence would have less impact on the world than the steam engine? The AI commentators are not saying that ELIZA will change the world, they’re saying that one of the big companies is moments away from an AGI. Sam Altman called a recent ChatGPT model a “PhD level expert”; wouldn’t infinite PhDs for $20/month or $200/month be transformative? That is, your objection isn’t the usual “LLMs ar…

There's potential there (with the pocket-PhDs), the question is whether it'll actually make a measurable difference in the long run. I mean I'm sure it will make a difference, the question is whether it's what they say it will be, and whether it'll be financially viable. At the current burn rate of the AI companies, it isn't - before long the first ones will have to give up. They won't die, they'll be subsumed into t…

A PhD generating knowledge has a cumulative effect that an equivalent intelligence generating prose purely for entertainment does not. And a whole bunch of that work isn’t really about novel insights, it’s about filling in gaps and doing knowledge work that assists people who are capable of having those insights. AI doing this enables them, also making it possible for more people to do the same.

Re: This time is different

#398

Post by generallyjosh »

qsera wrote: post #341
generallyjosh wrote: post #331

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There are lots of intelligent people looking at AI and imagining its potential Are you just saying that you're more intelligent than them? You can see clearly, where all the steam engine technicians can't?

What are they saying that contradicts with something I said?

Well, you said:

The potential of the current crop of LLM/AIs will stop at being a very powerful tool to search large volumes of text using free-form questions.

I do think that pretty clearly contradicts with what a lot of people who make/use LLM models are saying haha

Re: This time is different

#400

Post by naravara »

doyougnu wrote: post #177
naravara wrote: post #88

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think a good analogy will be the way word processors changed printing. Suddenly anyone with access to a computer had the ability to do professional level editing and layout. Most of them didn’t have the taste or skills to use the tools to the fullest, but it still opened up a ton of possibilities that weren’t available before because it was never practical to hire an actual professional to do a poster for a dinky c…

I think this is exactly right. I've been thinking of "this time" as similar to the advent of digital spreadsheets. Spreadsheets existed for thousands of years but spreadsheet programs transformed spreadsheet work that took hours or weeks into seconds. You still had to know what you were doing, and if you knew what you were doing you were easily 10x faster than those that didn't. I think we are in a similar situation…

For now the code assistance mostly works within your existing IDE and dev tools. So as long as there is rough parity across the different model vendors I think it should actually be pretty straightforward to swap between them. In fact the few enterprise tools I’ve seen shipping now have a drop-down to pick which model you want to use per instance. You can pick Gemini to do one thing and Claude to do something else and Llama for a third thing if you want. They’re all outputting into conventional programming languages so they can all read and proof each others’ work.
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