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The only moat left is money?

elliotbonneville.com

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Re: The only moat left is money?

#391

Post by aatd86 »

handzhiev wrote: post #241
kardashev8 wrote: post #202

Earlier quoted context omitted.

could you automate a BJJ coach?

Who's going to pay for a BJJ coach when nearly everyone is out of job?

You will probably have time related free credits for AI usage. The more you sell stuff that are in demand and ship fast, the higher price you can command. Otherwise you just get basic income. People will have to be creative. Creativity doesn't scale to machines. Creative decision making has too many branches.

So time based costs for product manufacturing and procurement.

Everyone will barter again in a sense.

Better money circulation. Those who just want entertainment can also do nothing. But entertainment will be a more important field. Already the case with tiktok, everyone is becoming an interntainer(sic) these days.

You have things such as the police olympics so to speak in the UAE... :)

So coaching people, personal improvement, wellness, will be good fields to be in.

Re: The only moat left is money?

#392

Post by thegrim33 »

scoofy wrote: post #184

So, I really felt like more people should be reading Nassim Taleb's Incerto series of books. A lot of the issues that fall out of AI he dealt with in his books like ten years ago. He gives one the best pieces of advice I've ever heard: if you are going to do something for a living, make sure it is NOT scalable. If you do something that isn't really scalable, like being a welder or a tailor, then you only have to comp…

It's so interesting the amount of people with these big AI fears who think that AI is going to replace most knowledge work within a short period of time, singularity, etc., but that same AI that takes over everything .. isn't going to be smart enough to operate robotics to do plumbing or welding? Those things will be outside the limits of its intelligence?

Re: The only moat left is money?

#393

Post by throwawaytea »

iamgopal wrote: post #373
throwawaytea wrote: post #330

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You're thinking of factory welding, manufacturing or maybe repetitive pipeline welding and thinks like that. It'll be a while until a robot disassembles a trailer enough to remove the bent axle, cleans off all the paint and rust, bends the trailer back into shape where needed, cuts a custom support to makeup for some lost strength, welds it in, primers it, paints it, and assembles the trailer. Same for construction t…

If automation excels sufficiently, robot will replace bent axle with new one automatically, repair cost will be usually higher than replace cost if all things are automated

The axle gets replaced even today. The thing we were welding was the frame.

Re: The only moat left is money?

#394

Post by nerdsniper »

scoofy wrote: post #184

So, I really felt like more people should be reading Nassim Taleb's Incerto series of books. A lot of the issues that fall out of AI he dealt with in his books like ten years ago. He gives one the best pieces of advice I've ever heard: if you are going to do something for a living, make sure it is NOT scalable. If you do something that isn't really scalable, like being a welder or a tailor, then you only have to comp…

New laser welders from xTool lower the barrier to entry for welding to nearly the floor. They basically automatically push the welder tip along at the perfect rate for excellent welds, and get super deep penetration / full fusion welds every time with very little skill.

It will be difficult to know what career is ‘safe’…especially if everyone floods into it because it’s one of the last decent-paying jobs left (it wont pay well for long if everyone else loses their jobs).

Re: The only moat left is money?

#395

Post by hn_acc1 »

scoofy wrote: post #309
hn_acc1 wrote: post #299

Earlier quoted context omitted.

My mom altered clothing when I was younger - and she darned socks too. My M-I-L still sews the occasional seam for pants that are too long and were cut for my wife or daughters. But me? I buy a pair of $30 jeans at Costco. If they don't fit great, I buy a different pair of $30 jeans. I don't spend $50 to have them altered, or take it to a laundrette. If it can't be washed in our home washer/dryer, I don't buy it. And…

This is an effective strategy if you're a fit model, or close to one. If you're within the standard deviation of the sizing chart, you'll probably do fine most of the time. I like golf. Most people use a standard shaft. In fact, that shaft length is standard because most people use it. That doesn't mean there isn't an entire industry for "golf fittings" because "most" people isn't even close to everyone.

I'm in the "obese" category - 6'1", 230 lbs+. I can still wear more or less off-the-rack jeans. 40x30/38x30 (+ belt) is my size. If anything, I could use help finding the right shoes to fit. But so far, with foam insoles, I've always been able to find some kind of shoe I can wear ok.

Golf is a luxury. I've played a full course (not driving range) maybe 5 times in my life, all in Canada, because I had a couple of friends, and it was way cheaper there (IMHO). Pretty sure exactly zero people would pay me to help them size their golf club shaft when I probably couldn't break 120 on an easy course. Should I invest 10 years of expensive golfing to get to a point (BIG MAYBE!!!) where I could get close to par, so that someone would pay me? Unless I was already a golf fanatic and doing so on my own, the investment hardly seems worth it.

Now you'll say it's not golf for me - but that's my point - YES, there ARE boutique industries that don't scale (for now) where you can make some $$. IF you've already invested thousands of hours anyway to be close to an expert, AND are a people person (can sell yourself or you talents), it's possible. And if you think that can't be automated.. Pretty sure someone could tweak a golf simulator to measure shaft length vs. player height, etc and get good enough for 95% of the population. Above that, it's luxury/vanity for rich people to have a "caddy" or whatever - that's really hard to count on, especially if you live in an area where people don't golf much, or there aren't many rich people, or you don't have the connections. No rich person is going to look through the yellow pages (insert search mechanism of your choice) to find a golf pro - they'll talk to their buddies.

Does the average person have this kind of highly developed, specialized ability in ANY field? Probably not. I've played slowpitch softball for 30+ years for fun. And I'm probably a bit above average for my age in terms of being able to hit the ball due to that - there are still thousands of other players in the area better than I am, and none of them are getting paid to recommend bats.. And if they are, most of them are getting minimum wage at a sporting goods store. Age isn't a factor, so I'm competing against everyone who can swing a bat.

So sure, there ARE things that may not scale yet (and may never) - but the very thing that makes it hard to scale probably also makes it hard for the average person to become good at, and then offer a service that will actually pay them a living wage.

Re: The only moat left is money?

#396

Post by senordevnyc »

shimman wrote: post #390
senordevnyc wrote: post #388

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Really? I don't think you could come close to beating any of the major software or AI companies head-to-head with only a billion in capital.

If you gave someone the exact same budgets and resources as the major AI companies, yes I'm sure most humans on this Earth would come up with comparable (and probably even better) plans. Why are we acting as if business magnates have some special quantity in them? Sam Altman isn't an engineer, he's never worked a real job in his life. There's nothing special about him outside of the ability to lie. If you can hire to…

You could maybe create a better product with a billion dollars, I'll give you that. But that's nowhere near enough to win. It's downright laughable to think that you could beat Slack or Google Workspace with only a billion dollars.

Why do you think Slack sold for $27 billion? Why not just spend a billion and beat them? OpenAI or Anthropic have collectively raised more than $100 billion. What on earth makes you think you could replicate that AND beat them at their own game with only a billion?

Re: The only moat left is money?

#398

Post by abhaynayar »

It's funny because the post is so baseless and emotions-driven, however these kind of common-denominator (bike-shedded) articles (by definition) touch humans more deeply and evoke more emotional responses. But again one can't be against "shallow" stuff because in the end everything is about how it makes you feel.
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