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Surely the crash of the US economy has to be soon

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Re: Surely the crash of the US economy has to be soon

#391

Post by repelsteeltje »

Noaidi wrote: post #207
repelsteeltje wrote: post #184

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Coincidentally: Silver plunges 30% in worst day since 1980 https://www.cnbc.com/2026/01/30/silver-gold-fall-price-usd-d...

Where was the news when silver was going up and having the best days it’s had since 1981? On January 26, 2026, silver experienced its largest one-day jump in 45 years, with front-month futures soaring by 14%. Spot silver prices surged to over $109 per ounce that day, driven by heightened safe-haven demand and industrial usage. The rally continued to push silver prices toward $120 by January 29, 2026. And regardless,…

Anyway, for now I'm primarily concerned with paying a debt for what I need (housing). While worrying somewhat about pension, I'm kind of happy I'm not too deep into where to put excess capital. First World problems.

IMO Paying your debt always seems prudent - whether we'll see huge inflation or even deflation - when you can live in the thing you're paying for.

Re: Surely the crash of the US economy has to be soon

#392

Post by YZF »

farss wrote: post #390
cjfd wrote: post #377

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Incorrect. The rules based order was first attempted after the first world war and then created after the second one. These are lessen that have been bought with blood. Lots of blood. Megaliters of it. The incredible stupidity of throwing that away is absolutely disgusting.

The "rules-based international order" was a fiction popularized by US policy makers who wanted to quietly substitute it for international law, so they could violate said laws, while still vaguely gesturing at moral authority.

International law was and is also a fiction. We have various conventions and agreements.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/International_law

"In the 1940s through the 1970s, the dissolution of the Soviet bloc and decolonisation across the world resulted in the establishment of scores of newly independent states.[67] As these former colonies became their own states, they adopted European views of international law.[68] A flurry of institutions, ranging from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development (World Bank) to the World Health Organization furthered the development of a multilateralist approach as states chose to compromise on sovereignty to benefit from international cooperation.[69] Since the 1980s, there has been an increasing focus on the phenomenon of globalisation and on protecting human rights on the global scale, particularly when minorities or indigenous communities are involved, as concerns are raised that globalisation may be increasing inequality in the international legal system.[70]"

Re: Surely the crash of the US economy has to be soon

#393

Post by diogenescynic »

yomismoaqui wrote: post #160

If you predict a crash every month and it happens after 2 years... can we call you a visionary?

There's a real estate YouTube channel that's been calling for a real estate downturn for like 8 years (pre-Pandemic). Eventually they'll be right.

Re: Surely the crash of the US economy has to be soon

#394

Post by jacquesm »

sodapopcan wrote: post #346
jacquesm wrote: post #338

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The end of 2026 was remarkably different to the world of today, and it that's logical it is - checks calendar - already 31 days ago. Now imagine another year of this.

> The end of 2026 Seems you didn't check you calendar hard enough ;)

hah! it was 6 am after a long night of hacking...

Re: Surely the crash of the US economy has to be soon

#395

Post by superfluous_g »

SllX wrote: post #152
torginus wrote: post #84

I feel like there's some credibility to 'this time it's different' The US economy depends on the country's position of world hegemon - the US dollar is the world's main reserve currency, the US enforces international order and trade rules via its military strength, it dominates technology and culture through 'US defaultism'. I dont think AI even factors in to this. The US economy is priced for global reach - if it ma…

> Should the US become an unfriendly power to the rest of the western world, it will find the demand for its currency plummeting, which I don't want to outline is a big issue. Right now this is much more of a maybe, possibly, eventually, over a long enough time horizon. As of the end of 2025, USD still made up 57% of foreign reserves vs 20% for the Euro and 3% for the Chinese renminbi. Nearly all commodities are stil…

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Re: Surely the crash of the US economy has to be soon

#397

Post by tpm »

YZF wrote: post #361
panarky wrote: post #270

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The international "rules-based order" is a good idea when most nations play by the rules most of the time, and when the most powerful at least pretend to follow the same rules as everyone else. A world order based on rules makes it possible to live at a much higher level of abstraction. Abstractions like rule of law, democracy, government currencies and stock exchanges are intangible and imaginary. They're mostly jus…

The rules based order is mostly a fabrication of recent history. Perhaps between the fall of the Soviet Union, China becoming more open, and the general peace and prosperity it seemed like it existed. Politics between countries has always been around interests. Countries have no interest in giving up their sovereignty. They may pretend to respect these "rules" when it suits them and then ignore them when it doesn't.…

> Russia and China (and many others) have never even pretended to play or accept these "rules".

This false. They have pretended to play by the rules, and when breaking them, to at least manufacture some pretext, or to deny it was a state activity at all.

One example I can give you is that when invading Czechoslovakia in 1968, the Soviet Union convinced a few Czechoslovak politicians to write a letter inviting the forces for "brotherly help", thus manufacturing a case that it's not really an invasion. They didn't have to do it, the force differential was overwhelming, but they did it because they could point at the letter on international stage.

All this may seem a bit pointless but binding them in international structures brought interesting fruit in the wake of Helsinki conference on human rights. After that they were forced to at least somewhat follow the signed documents which lead to significantly better conditions to dissidents behind the Iron Curtain. And there are many examples like this, when pointing at international rules actually made things better. So let's not throw that away.

Re: Surely the crash of the US economy has to be soon

#398

Post by willtemperley »

torginus wrote: post #84

I feel like there's some credibility to 'this time it's different' The US economy depends on the country's position of world hegemon - the US dollar is the world's main reserve currency, the US enforces international order and trade rules via its military strength, it dominates technology and culture through 'US defaultism'. I dont think AI even factors in to this. The US economy is priced for global reach - if it ma…

De-dollarisation is happening, but slowly. China has decreased its US treasury holdings by about 7% a year over the last five years [1].

It won't happen quickly because no-one would want to tank the market while they're selling.

[1] https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/foreign-treasury-...

Re: Surely the crash of the US economy has to be soon

#399

Post by tpm »

YZF wrote: post #392
farss wrote: post #390

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The "rules-based international order" was a fiction popularized by US policy makers who wanted to quietly substitute it for international law, so they could violate said laws, while still vaguely gesturing at moral authority.

International law was and is also a fiction. We have various conventions and agreements. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/International_law "In the 1940s through the 1970s, the dissolution of the Soviet bloc and decolonisation across the world resulted in the establishment of scores of newly independent states.[67] As these former colonies became their own states, they adopted European views of international law.[68] A…

> In the 1940s through the 1970s, the dissolution of the Soviet bloc

There was no dissolution of Soviet bloc during that time.

Re: Surely the crash of the US economy has to be soon

#400

Post by fuckyah »

torginus wrote: post #84

I feel like there's some credibility to 'this time it's different' The US economy depends on the country's position of world hegemon - the US dollar is the world's main reserve currency, the US enforces international order and trade rules via its military strength, it dominates technology and culture through 'US defaultism'. I dont think AI even factors in to this. The US economy is priced for global reach - if it ma…

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