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How China built its ‘Manhattan Project’ to rival the West in AI chips

japantimes.co.jp

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Re: How China built its ‘Manhattan Project’ to rival the West in AI chips

#391

Post by jampekka »

krona wrote: post #383
yanhangyhy wrote: post #367

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You’re not wrong to think that way. But now there’s less and less left for China to “copy,” and it’s hard to argue that many things aren’t being invented by China itself. Perhaps the real question is this: why is it that places that used to be technologically advanced no longer produce new, original inventions? Is it fear of China copying them? Did the U.S. decide not to develop a sixth-generation fighter jet because…

Can't wait to see the first Nobel prize in physics being awarded to a scientist who is actually a product of Chinese academy. Any moment now.

Nobel prizes in physics are awarded typically with lag of 20-30 years. In early 2000s China was still a relative backwater economically (and academically). In 2000 US R&D spending was over 8 times China's. Now China has likely surpassed USA. It surpassed EU already in about 2014.

Working in academia, the rise of China academically is palpable. There's an avalance of Chinese research published, and a reasonable chunk of it very high quality, and getting better.

https://www.statista.com/chart/20553/gross-domestic-expendit...

https://itif.org/publications/2025/06/30/china-outpacing-us-...

Re: How China built its ‘Manhattan Project’ to rival the West in AI chips

#392

Post by Ekaros »

yosefk wrote: post #357
vasco wrote: post #354

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> since it wasn’t made by God, we can definitely make it ourselves. This implies copying what someone else did. Rather than inventing something new. I know it's not what you meant but if it wasn't made by God it's because it's already made by someone else. The sentence says to me more about copying than some relentless pursuit. The people who invented the thing to copy, those were more relentless presumably. And then…

The Chinese are ahead at too many things at this point to think they're only good at copying

And it is not like making a copy for cheaper isn't something that requires skill and innovation. Or then iterate on that copy. Didn't Roomba just fail to these copies. If west was truly so much more innovative and better shouldn't they as company be infinitely ahead still?

Re: How China built its ‘Manhattan Project’ to rival the West in AI chips

#393

Post by Ekaros »

terminalshort wrote: post #264
pogue wrote: post #256

Earlier quoted context omitted.

When did this whole quarterly profits thing start and what lead to it?

It's not real. Companies routinely lose money for years in pursuit of long term growth. But for some reason people love to use this as an explanation of everything wrong in our country.

Growth in this case can also be growth of valuation. Or maybe that is in general the goal. Get the market cap or nominal valuation to go up.

Some money is lost to push up this valuation or valuation based on some future sales, or market share or anything...

Re: How China built its ‘Manhattan Project’ to rival the West in AI chips

#394

Post by immibis »

roadside_picnic wrote: post #292
tempest_ wrote: post #268

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Completely destroying the US is not ideal for him How can you say? The ultra wealthy are not playing team sports. If the country burned tomorrow they would just sit on their yacht or buy citizenship somewhere else. Sure the lion share of his investments are currently in the US, but that could easily change.

Most cynically? I sincerely believe there's more value he can extract from American workers if he can keep the ride going on just a bit longer. For example: it's better to keep the stock market a float a volatile so he can transfer a bit more wealth from the American people before it does eventually break down. Yes, they'll all be on yachts when the shit hits the fan, but they're still fighting to figure out who get…

He also has dementia so he probably can't plan that far ahead. He's operating on a very short term feedback cycle: this reporter asked me a question that makes me look bad, so I call her piggy. That's the timescale we're operating on. Not even quarterly profits but moment-to-moment.

Re: How China built its ‘Manhattan Project’ to rival the West in AI chips

#395

Post by immibis »

terminalshort wrote: post #266
xmprt wrote: post #86

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It might be a bit nihilistic but at this point I don't think the current US administration has any strategy. In past administrations, it felt like even if there was a strategy, bureaucracy and lack of caring enough to do their job led to nothing happening. In this administration, it feels like there's no care for the rules so in theory a strategy could be pushed through... except there isn't one - literally whoever i…

Exactly right. Democrats have the desire to do big things, but not the capability. Republicans have the capability, but no desire.

It's more accurate to say everyone who wants to do the right thing is a Democrat, than to say all Democrats want to do the right thing. Most of them are just the lite version of Republicans.

Re: How China built its ‘Manhattan Project’ to rival the West in AI chips

#396

Post by immibis »

bilbo0s wrote: post #205
solid_fuel wrote: post #182

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I took the previous comment as satire, considering that - for example - Chinese electric vehicles are now far more affordable than anything produced domestically in the US.

Just to give a hint of how we plan on dealing with this, how many of those cars can you buy in the US today? You can expect to be able to buy exactly that many chinese GPU or neural processors.

The fact that we banned the better products out of spite doesn't mean they're not better products.

Imagine if in 2010 the USA had banned itself from using computer hardware more powerful than they had at the time. Where would they be in the AI race? That's the situation the USA is heading for.

Re: How China built its ‘Manhattan Project’ to rival the West in AI chips

#397

Post by lanthissa »

subw00f wrote: post #257
mywittyname wrote: post #170

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> get along with China better. This will probably never happen. All countries are rivals, and the semblance of cooperation is really just the manifestation of a power imbalance. China grew into their big boy pants and can hold their own on the international stage. They have no need to be cooperative because they are in the International Superpower Club. Their strategic ambitions do not align with those of their rival…

Yeah, all those countries China has invaded really shows how apt they are to do that.

yeah they really shouldn't be blockading their neighbors while claiming every country around them is their sphere of influence and openly interfering in their allies domestic politics while leveraging their size to force other countries to accept asymmetric economic deals...

Re: How China built its ‘Manhattan Project’ to rival the West in AI chips

#399

Post by krige »

dash2 wrote: post #303
overfeed wrote: post #210

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Gaming GPU drivers are complex and have tons of game-specific patches. I don't think the Chinese government will be too upset if cheap Chinese GPUs work best with China-made games. It will be quite the cultural coup if, in 20 years time, the most popular shooter is a Chinese version of Call of Duty or Battlefield.

They made the most popular RPG last year already - why do you think it'll take 20 years for them to make the most popular shooter? For that matter, the Singapore-HQed SEA makes Free Fire, which topped Google Play in 2019.

Gacha mobages are rarely considered the same kind of entertainment as actual RPGs, and even then the Japanese and the Koreans give them stiff competition. When it's not a skinner box FOMO with titillating skins the Chinese barely register on the radar.

Re: How China built its ‘Manhattan Project’ to rival the West in AI chips

#400

Post by nulld3v »

lossolo wrote: post #108

Also interesting huge project: China is building a $116 billion dam which, according to Bloomberg, is expected to generate 70 GW, just to compare: UK whole capacity (de-rated) is around 70 GW. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zAwJESmfy10

The current largest hydroelectric dam in the world is the Three Gorges Dam in China. It can generate 22.5GW (40% more power than the dam in 2nd place, which is also Chinese).

Since Jan 2024, China has on average constructed 23GW of new solar power every month. So China has effectively been adding a "world's largest dam" worth of solar power, every single month for the last 24 months.

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