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Is it a bubble?

oaktreecapital.com

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Re: Is it a bubble?

#391

Post by blitzar »

sethammons wrote: post #27
sp4cec0wb0y wrote: post #7

> In many advanced software teams, developers no longer write the code; they type in what they want, and AI systems generate the code for them. What a wild and speculative claim. Is there any source for this information?

At $WORK, we have a bot that integrates with Slack that sets up minor PRs. Adjusting tf, updating endpoints, adding simple handlers. It does pretty well. Also in a case of just prose to code, Claude wrote up a concurrent data migration utility in Go. When I reviewed it, it wasn't managing goroutines or waitgroups well, and the whole thing was a buggy mess and could not be gracefully killed. I would have written it fa…

The CEO obviously wants one of those trophies that chatgpt gives out.

Re: Is it a bubble?

#392

Post by oneeyedpigeon »

sethammons wrote: post #27
sp4cec0wb0y wrote: post #7

> In many advanced software teams, developers no longer write the code; they type in what they want, and AI systems generate the code for them. What a wild and speculative claim. Is there any source for this information?

At $WORK, we have a bot that integrates with Slack that sets up minor PRs. Adjusting tf, updating endpoints, adding simple handlers. It does pretty well. Also in a case of just prose to code, Claude wrote up a concurrent data migration utility in Go. When I reviewed it, it wasn't managing goroutines or waitgroups well, and the whole thing was a buggy mess and could not be gracefully killed. I would have written it fa…

> we are to leverage AI in everything we do

Sounds like the extremely well-repeated mistake of treating everything like a nail because hammers are being hyped up this month.

Re: Is it a bubble?

#393

Post by coffeebeqn »

projektfu wrote: post #231
sp4cec0wb0y wrote: post #7

> In many advanced software teams, developers no longer write the code; they type in what they want, and AI systems generate the code for them. What a wild and speculative claim. Is there any source for this information?

I have heard many software developers confidently tell me "pilots don't really fly the planes anymore" and, well, that's patently false but also the jetliners autopilots do handle much of the busy work during cruise, and sometimes during climb-out and approach. And they can sometimes land themselves, but not efficiently enough for a busy airport.

Autopilot based on a LLM would guarantee I’d never fly again

Re: Is it a bubble?

#394

Post by djeastm »

georgeecollins wrote: post #98
stack_framer wrote: post #58

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> It's kind of the first time in my life that I've been actively hoping for a technology to out right not deliver on its promise. Same here, and I think it's because I feel like a craftsman. I thoroughly enjoy the process of thinking deeply about what I will build, breaking down the work into related chunks, and of course writing the code itself. It's like magic when it all comes together. Sometimes I can't even beli…

I also love to code, though it's not what people pay to do anymore. You should never hope for a technology to not deliver on its promise. Sooner or later it usually does. The question is, does it happen in two years or a hundred years? My motto: don't predict, prepare.

>You should never hope for a technology to not deliver on its promise. Sooner or later it usually does.

Lots of wiggle room between "never" or "usually". We're not all riding Segways or wearing VR goggles. Seems wiser to work on case-by-case basis here.

Re: Is it a bubble?

#395

Post by grumbelbart2 »

PurpleRamen wrote: post #386
sp4cec0wb0y wrote: post #7

> In many advanced software teams, developers no longer write the code; they type in what they want, and AI systems generate the code for them. What a wild and speculative claim. Is there any source for this information?

Yes and no. There is the infamous quote of Microsoft, about 30%(?) of their code being written by AI now. And technically, it's probably not that such a wild claim in certain areas. AI is very good at barfing up common popular patterns, and companies have a huge amount of patternized software, like UIs, tests, documentation or marketing-fluff. So it's quite easy to "outsource" such grunt-work if AI has the necessary…

I found LLLMs to be very good of writing (unit) tests for my code, for example. They just don't get tired iterating over all corner cases. Those tests easily, in LoC, dwarf the actual implementation. Not sure if that would count towards the 30%, for example.

Re: Is it a bubble?

#397

Post by bitwize »

dmurvihill wrote: post #340

This says it all: > I haven’t met anyone who doesn’t believe artificial intelligence has the potential to be one of the biggest technological developments of all time, reshaping both daily life and the global economy. You’re trying to weigh in on this topic and you didn’t even _talk_ to a bear?

AI is changing the world and has changed the world already.

See, AI is a field... and it's also a buzzword: once a technology passes out of fashion and becomes part of the fabric of computing, it is no longer called AI in the public imagination. GOFAI techniques, like rules engines and propositional-logic inference, were certainly considered AI in the 1970s and 1980s, and are still used, they're just no longer called that.

The statistical methods behind machine learning, transformers, and LLMs are certainly game changers for the field. Whether they will usher in a revolutionary new economy, or simply be accepted as sometimes-useful computation techniques as their limitations and the boundaries of their benefits become more widely known, remains to be seen but I think it will be closer to the latter than the former.

Re: Is it a bubble?

#398

Post by halnine0001 »

asimpletune wrote: post #385

The AI/LLM movement is either utterly transformational or it’s not. By the former I mean there is no daylight between it and the latter. If it’s not transformational then this is a bubble and the market will right itself soon after, e.g buying data centers for cheap. LLMs will then exist as a useful but limited tool that becomes profitable with the lower capex. If it is transformational then we don’t have the societa…

>Perfectly functioning normal stuff is then replaced with LLM assisted or augmented versions everywhere

That sounds like a total nightmare

Re: Is it a bubble?

#400

Post by bewo001 »

lm28469 wrote: post #349
conradev wrote: post #323

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I used to hand roll the assembly, but now I delegate that work to my agent, clang. I occasionally override clang or give it hints, but it usually gets it right most of the time. clang doesn't "understand" the hints because it doesn't "understand" anything, but it knows what to do with them! Just like codex.

Given an input clang will always give the same output, not quite the same for llms. Also nobody ever claimed compilers were intelligent or that they "understood" things

Hm, some things compilers do during optimization would have been labelled AI during the last AI bubble.
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