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Horses: AI progress is steady. Human equivalence is sudden

andyljones.com

391–400 of 663 posts

Re: Horses: AI progress is steady. Human equivalence is sudden

#391

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Ctrl-F 'lines', 0 results Ctrl-F 'code', 0 results What is this comment about?

Maybe it was edited. I count at least 6 instances of the word “code”

underyx was doing the ctrl+f on the original (horses) article, not the negative 2000 lines of code article.

It's a confusing comment. I misinterpreted it myself too originally.

Re: Horses: AI progress is steady. Human equivalence is sudden

#392

> A system that costs less, per word thought or written, than it'd cost to hire the cheapest human labor on the face of the planet. Is it really possible to make this claim given the vast sums of money that have gone in to AI/LLM training?

it's coming from an extremely biased source, that's why nobody else would make that claim

Re: Horses: AI progress is steady. Human equivalence is sudden

#393

> A system that costs less, per word thought or written, than it'd cost to hire the cheapest human labor on the face of the planet. Is it really possible to make this claim given the vast sums of money that have gone in to AI/LLM training?

I'd say yes, because AI training is mostly fixed-cost and not that expensive when you compare it to raising/educating human labor.

Early factories were expensive, too (compared to the price of a horse), but that was never a show-stopper.

Re: Horses: AI progress is steady. Human equivalence is sudden

#394

I think my software engineering job will be safe so long as big companies keep using average code as their training set. This is because the average developer creates unnecessary complexity which creates more work for me. The way the average dev structures their code requires like 10x the number of lines as I do and at least 10x the amount of time to maintain... The interest on technical debt compounds like interest…

Unnecessary complexity isn’t much of a problem when the code is virtually free to maintain or throw away and replace.

Even if a throw away and replace strategy is used, eventually a system's complexity will overrun any intelligence's ability to work effectively with it. Poor engineering will cause that development velocity drop off to happen earlier.

Re: Horses: AI progress is steady. Human equivalence is sudden

#395
post #197
post #146

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yeah I feel like the real ah ha moment is still coming once there is a GPT-like thing that has been trained on reality, not its shadow.

Reality cannot be perceived. A crisp shadow is all you can hope for. The problem for me is the point of the economy in the limit where robots are better, faster and cheaper than any human at any job. If the robots don’t decide we’re worth keeping around we might end up worse than horses.

but that crisp shadow is exactly what we call perception

Re: Horses: AI progress is steady. Human equivalence is sudden

#396

Someone who makes horseshoes then learns how to make carburetors, because the demand is 10x. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jevons_paradox

In that analogy "someone" is an AI, who of course switches from answering questions from humans, to answering questions from other AIs, because the demand is 10x.

Re: Horses: AI progress is steady. Human equivalence is sudden

#398

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think, like the Bill Gates haters who interpret him talking about reducing the rate of birth in Africa as wanting to kill Africans, you're interpreting it wrong. The graph says horse ownership per person. People probably stopped buying horses, they let theirs retire (well, to be honest, probably also sent to the glue factory), and when they stopped buying new horses, horse breeding programs slowed down.

I don’t think you’re realizing that the OP understands this, and that in this analogy, the horses are human beings

population projections they already predict that prosperity reduces population

and even if AI becomes good enough to replace most humans the economic surplus does not disappear

it's a coordination problem

in many places on Earth social safety nets are pretty robust, and if AI helps to reduce cost of providing basic services then it won't be a problem to expand those safety nets

...

there's already a pretty serious anti-inequality (or at least anti-billionaire) storm brewing, the question is can it motivate the necessary structural changes or just fuels yet another dumb populist movement

Re: Horses: AI progress is steady. Human equivalence is sudden

#399

An engine performs a simple mechanical operation. Chess is a closed domain. An AI that could fully automate the job of these new hires, rather than doing RAG over a knowledge base to help onboard them, would have to be far more general than either an engine or a chessbot. This generality used to be foregrounded by the term "AGI." But six months to a year ago when the rate of change in LLMs slowed down, and those exci…

I think a lot about how much we altered our environment to suit cars. They're not a perfect solution to transport, but they've been so useful we've built tons more road to accommodate them. So, while I don't think AGI will happen any time soon, I wonder what 'roads' we'll build to squeeze the most out of our current AI. Probably tons of power generation.

This is a really interesting observation! Cars don't have to dominate our city design, and yet they do in many places. In the USA, you basically only have NYC and a few less convenient cities to avoid a city designed for cars. Society has largely been reshaped with the assumption that cars will be used whether or not you'd like to use one.

What would that look like for navigating life without AI? Living in a community similar to the Amish or Hasidic Jews that don't integrate technology in their lives as much as the average person does? That's a much more extreme lifestyle change than moving to NYC to get away from cars.

Re: Horses: AI progress is steady. Human equivalence is sudden

#400

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Unnecessary complexity isn’t much of a problem when the code is virtually free to maintain or throw away and replace.

Depends on the size and complexity of the problem that the system is solving. For very complex problems, even the most succinct solution will be complex and not all parts of the code can be throwaway code. You have to start stacking the layers of abstractions and some code becomes critical. Like think of the Linux Kernel, you can't throw away the Linux Kernel. You can't throw away Chromium or the V8 engine... Million…

companies have been abandoning products for decades, and shuffling ongoing support onto other entities. nothing has to be "thrown away" as you keep suggesting.
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