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Is America's jobs market nearing a cliff?

economist.com

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Re: Is America's jobs market nearing a cliff?

#391

Post by rightbyte »

bottlepalm wrote: post #308
cute_boi wrote: post #66

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It is all due to outsourcing. AI/H1B isn't taking that much job. Unless government put penalties on outsourcing market isn't going to improve.

I'm seeing like 80% of software dev applications at my company are H1B/OPT, like thousands of candidates - and they're getting hired just because of the sheer numbers they drown everyone else out. So yes, they are 100% taking jobs. A lot of them. I can't comprehend how there are so many.

Maybe there is some pool of candidates that applies to all jobs due to automation making the numbers scewed?

Re: Is America's jobs market nearing a cliff?

#392

Post by nicbou »

cal_dent wrote: post #62

I think there's something quite interesting (well to me anyway) where if you go by the internet, there is this bloodbath (slight exaggeration perhaps but feels like that) in jobs out in the US, UK, Aus and major European countries (the volume of anecdotes & complaints would suggest a significant downturn in employment) but out in the official data, and less so but still true in the real world, things are still bobbin…

Some anecdata from Berlin:

- It's now much harder to get a job without speaking German

- There is now competition for low-wage service jobs

- At times it felt like half of my friends were unemployed

- My dev friends have a much harder time finding work. Back in 2015-2020 I had to beat recruiters back with a stick.

Re: Is America's jobs market nearing a cliff?

#393

Post by yodsanklai »

AIorNot wrote: post #260

Well as a single datum: After I got laid off in late 2023 I had a devil of a time finding work (despite having AI experience) to the point my unemployment ran out - And I was 20 years as a dev and tech lead and full stack, (never had trouble finding work) including stints as a leading EM and CTO, I’ve been an industry award winning innovation lead,a digital studio director, switching tech stacks and cloud certs all m…

I work in a FAANG as a SWE. I'm not the on selecting candidates, but I do interview a lot of them. I'm pretty sure I've never seen a 50+ year old candidate. 99% of the candidates have less than 10 year experience, and are in their 20s or 30s.

So yes, ageism is real. I suppose the company gets away with it by saying they look for candidates with 3-10 years of experience?

At that stage, I think I would pass Leetcode with 2-3 months of practice, and I don't mind putting the work if this is what it takes. I'm just not sure I'd be given the chance.

Re: Is America's jobs market nearing a cliff?

#394

Post by nicbou »

venturecruelty wrote: post #42
jdiff wrote: post #23

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's grim everywhere, for everything, all at once. I haven't been able to find work as a graphic designer, motion designer, web designer, web developer, software developer, and a large variety of retail jobs. Been on the job hunt since May, all I've been able to find is a part time position at The Home Depot.

I wonder if it has anything to do with all of the 10-200% taxes we've levied on random things.

I don't know if it's as bad, but it's bad in Canada and Germany too. The whole world is doing pretty bad, it seems.

Re: Is America's jobs market nearing a cliff?

#395

Post by yodsanklai »

lvl155 wrote: post #389
AIorNot wrote: post #260

Well as a single datum: After I got laid off in late 2023 I had a devil of a time finding work (despite having AI experience) to the point my unemployment ran out - And I was 20 years as a dev and tech lead and full stack, (never had trouble finding work) including stints as a leading EM and CTO, I’ve been an industry award winning innovation lead,a digital studio director, switching tech stacks and cloud certs all m…

What’s admirable is that you’ve actually applied to jobs below your pay grade. Most people won’t because doing that grind in your 40s is actually hard especially if you have kids.

So what these people do if they can't find a job?

Re: Is America's jobs market nearing a cliff?

#396

Post by ungovernableCat »

reactordev wrote: post #370
watwut wrote: post #357

Earlier quoted context omitted.

They cant fix the economy singlehandly. Blaming individuals for systemic problems is just avoidance.

The only thing they can control is themselves and their habits though. I’m not avoiding the fact that the economy is fucked. I’m fully aware. It’s up to you how much you’re willing to continue to pay or what you’re willing to sacrifice. It sucks, but the only thing you can control is yourself.

It’s just generic advice that doesn’t even really apply to the fresh grads, their issue is not having any entry point to a career anymore.

I graduated 10 years ago and it’s a day and night difference. Whatever worked for me in 2015 will not work for a fresh grad today, the game is completely different.

Re: Is America's jobs market nearing a cliff?

#398

Post by lotsofpulp »

johnnyanmac wrote: post #215
ac29 wrote: post #202

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> turn to the government to finally build in some proper labor laws and other obvious controls (how about re-banning stock buybacks?) What would banning stock buybacks accomplish? Companies can still return capital to shareholders in the form of dividends.

Dividends don't grow the stock as quickly. They can and will do that, but the goal is to change the incentive structure back to long term growth and not "stock buyback and dip from company in a year".

There is no evidence to indicate buybacks reduce long term incentives for executives compared to dividends.

If anything, all the businesses with the most long term growth have done the most buybacks because they are paying the employees in stock, which employees gladly accept because they bet the business will have long term growth.

And executive compensation is not vested until business targets are met a few years in the future.

Re: Is America's jobs market nearing a cliff?

#399

Post by j-bos »

donatj wrote: post #311
AIorNot wrote: post #260

Well as a single datum: After I got laid off in late 2023 I had a devil of a time finding work (despite having AI experience) to the point my unemployment ran out - And I was 20 years as a dev and tech lead and full stack, (never had trouble finding work) including stints as a leading EM and CTO, I’ve been an industry award winning innovation lead,a digital studio director, switching tech stacks and cloud certs all m…

The number of just straight out NO's I've gotten has been surprising and disheartening. I've been a developer for 20 years and genuinely don't think I've gotten an outright "no" before this year. Usually just no response. I've gotten maybe eight or nine actual rejections this year. It's honestly worse, emotionally. Ideally I want a job outside my wheelhouse to learn and move forward, but it seems like no one these da…

Have you tried jobs.now ? In theory those are positions legitimately looking to be filled.

Re: Is America's jobs market nearing a cliff?

#400

Post by lordnacho »

raw_anon_1111 wrote: post #161
markus_zhang wrote: post #78

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Reality is not particularly rosy for new graduates AFAIK. If I lose my job, I wouldn't be super surprised that I might never get a similar job for the rest of my life -- it is not that I do not have the skills, but 1) the amount of time for a laid off SDE to get a new job could reach to years, not months, so I need to do something else to earn $$$, and 2) why are companies going to hire me, who have gap years and are…

I saw this coming way before AI became a thing around 2016 when I was 42. Software development was becoming a commodity where there were plenty of “good enough” developers where no matter what, it was going to be saturated. If someone is trying to sell themselves as an undifferentiated developer in 2025 or later, it’s going to be an uphill battle unless you can lean on your network. At 51, if my only differentiator i…

> At 51, if my only differentiator is I can code, I’ve done something horribly wrong in my life.

I think software is going through what scribes went through when education went universal.

At one point, just knowing how to read and write gave you a cushy job. It didn't matter what, maybe you were in government, maybe you were a clerk organizing trade.

Somewhere in the last 20 years, this happened with coding. At the start of the millennium, knowing how to code meant you could fill some role. Now, everybody knows enough of how to do it that it's assumed for many roles, just as reading and writing is for every office job.

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