It's all so unfathomably stupid. And it's going to bring down an economy.
I'm honestly starting to feel embarrassed to even be employed in the software industry now.
I quit Google last year because I was just done with the incessant push for "AI" in everything (AI exclusively means LLMs of course). I still believe in the company as a whole, the work culture just took a hard right towards kafkaville. Nowadays when my relatives say "AI will replace X" or whatever I just nod along. People are incredibly naive and unbelievably ignorant, but that's about as new as eating wheat.
I think I read that its valued at 500 billion based on their latest fund raise. I don't know the total holdings they have. I have no interest in crypto, just wanted to mention this which was surprising to me when I heard it.
For comparison Blackstone is worth ~$180bn with ~$1 trillion AUM. So somehow this crypto firm and its investor think it can get a better return than Blackstone with a fraction of the assets. Now, sure, developing market and all that. But really? If it scaled to Blackstone assets level of $1 trillion then you’d expect the platform valuation to scale, perhaps not in lockstep but at least somewhat. So with $1 trillion i…
If my mom gives me 1000 dollars for 1% of my lemonade stand, that doesn't mean my stand is worth 100k. Tether is in talks with investors to mayb raise 20b at a 500b valuation. Keep in mind also that crypto investors overvalue companies to create the hype and then lobby for better regulations etc. It doesn't mean at all that someone would be interested to buy 100% of tether for 500b. Now, if they were public is a different story, like Tesla etc
For comparison Blackstone is worth ~$180bn with ~$1 trillion AUM. So somehow this crypto firm and its investor think it can get a better return than Blackstone with a fraction of the assets. Now, sure, developing market and all that. But really? If it scaled to Blackstone assets level of $1 trillion then you’d expect the platform valuation to scale, perhaps not in lockstep but at least somewhat. So with $1 trillion i…
If my mom gives me 1000 dollars for 1% of my lemonade stand, that doesn't mean my stand is worth 100k. Tether is in talks with investors to mayb raise 20b at a 500b valuation. Keep in mind also that crypto investors overvalue companies to create the hype and then lobby for better regulations etc. It doesn't mean at all that someone would be interested to buy 100% of tether for 500b. Now, if they were public is a diff…
That is stupid. It would be possible to be infinitely arbitrary to the point of “AGI” never being reachable by some yard sticks while still performing most viable labor.
So why are your arbitrary yard sticks more valid than someone elses? Probable the biggest problem as others have stated is that we can’t really define intelligence more precisely than that it is something most humans have and all rocks don’t. So how could any definition for AGI be any more precise?
Where did I say my yardsticks are better? I don’t even think I set out any of mine
I said having to satisfy “all” the yard sticks is stupid, because one could conceive a truly infinite number of arbitrary yard sticks.
> Once AGI is declared by OpenAI, that declaration will now be verified by an independent expert panel. > Microsoft’s IP rights for both models and products are extended through 2032 and now includes models post-AGI, with appropriate safety guardrails. Does anyone really think we are close to AGI? I mean honestly?
Who knows? I don't see any way to define it in an easily verifiable way. Pretty much any test you could devise, others will be able to point out ways that it's inadequate or doesn't capture aspects of human intelligence. So I think it all just comes down to who is on the panel.
The best test would be when your competitors can't say what you have isn't AGI. If no one, not even your arch biz enemies, can seriously claim you have not achieved AGI then you probably have it.
Many questioning why Microsoft would agree to this, but to me the concessions they made strike me as minor. > OpenAI remains Microsoft’s frontier model partner and Microsoft continues to have exclusive IP rights and Azure API exclusivity This should be the headline - Microsoft maintains its financial and intellectual stranglehold on OpenAI. And meanwhile, while vaguer, a few of the bullet points are potentially very…
Maybe OpenAI is burning money heavily and MS is the only/best partner to get it from?
Also for MS it is worth to keep investing little by little,getting concessions from OpenAI and becoming the de facto owner of it.
>It would be possible to be infinitely arbitrary to the point of “AGI” never being reachable by some yard sticks while still performing most viable labor. "Most viable labor" involves getting things from one place to another, and that's not even the hard part of it. In any case, any sane definition of general AI would entail things that people can generally do. Like driving. >That is stupid That's just, like, your op…
I had a friend who had his Tesla drive him from his driveway in another city 3+ hrs away to my driveway with no intervention. I feel like everyone’s opinion on how self-driving is going is still rooted in 2018 or something and no one has updated.
ok but have you asked your Tesla to write you a mobile app? AGI would be able to do both. (the self-driving thing is just an example of something AGI would be able to do but an LLM can't)
SAE automation levels are the industry standard, not FSD (which is a brand name), and FSD is clearly Level 2 (driver is always responsible and must be engaged, at least in consumer teslas, I don't know about robotaxis). The question is if "AGI" is as well defined as "Level 5" as an independent standard.
The point trying to be made is FSD is deceptive marketing, and it's unbelievable how long that "marketing term" has been allowed to exist given its inaccuracy in representing what is actually being delivered to the customer.
What's deceptive? What in the term "Full Self Driving" makes you think that your car will drive itself fully? It's fully capable of facilitating your driving of yourself, clearly.
They’ll devalue the term into something that makes it so. The common conception of it however, no I don’t believe we are anywhere close to it. It’s no different than how they moved the goalpost on the definition of AI at the start of this boom cycle
Wasn't there already a report that stated Microsoft and OpenAI understand AGI as something like 100 billion dollars in revenue for the purpose of their agreements? Even that seems like a pipe dream at the moment.