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Harnessing America's heat pump moment

heatpumped.org

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Re: Harnessing America's heat pump moment

#391

Post by caminante »

ssuds wrote: post #377
Spivak wrote: post #338

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It will be interesting to see if this will make natural gas a more attractive source of residential heating as the price has remained relatively stable over the past 20 years. The push for electrification seems like it relies on us metaphorically drowning in excess cheap electricity and want somewhere for it to go but right now the opposite it happening.

>The price has remained relatively stable over the past 20 years Not really, natural gas has immense exposure to geopolitics and the commodity markets: https://www.iea.org/commentaries/what-drives-natural-gas-pri... There’s also the argument to be made (this has manifested in other countries) that as gas usage wanes and more homes electrify, nat gas costs will increase as the infrastructure costs are spread among few…

I skimmed the article (so forgive me if I'm off.) It appears to reference non-US markets and the parent was assuming US (my assumption).

AFAIK, the US has a mid-long outlook of gas oversupply. EU's market is broken and has 3x the price (c.f. Henry Hub v. TTF). I haven't seen any major forecasters predict reaching parity anytime soon. Hence, LNG export projects keep getting (over-)built to chase the arbitrage.

Re: Harnessing America's heat pump moment

#392

Post by pants2 »

danimal88 wrote: post #324

Regarding the crazy prices - it’s structural. In Asia, manufacturers sell direct or through highly competitive retail channels and the installers really only have to know minisplits. Minisplits in the US get sold by the brand -> distributor -> dealer (contractor) -> homeowner with each step being a 20% market up. Sometimes there is even a master distributor in there AND usually there is a “rep group” taking points to…

I recently got a Mr. Cool DIY minisplit at Costco for $1600. I called an independent electrician to run the wiring for $200 and he helped me install the thing for another $200. So I got a fully installed minisplit for $2k and it works great.

Re: Harnessing America's heat pump moment

#393

Post by yojo »

sitharus wrote: post #311
yojo wrote: post #162

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It’s bonkers. I bought a pre-charged ductless mini split to DIY. Took my dad and I about four hours to do the install. So call it 8 hours of semi-skilled labor. The unit was $1350, I added a line set cover, pad and feet for another $200, and needed about $200 in electrical equipment - it was a long wire run and code requires installing a disconnect box. The only special tool was a hole saw bit for running the coolant…

In New Zealand a pretty basic 3.5kW (the internet told me that’s about a “ton”) mini split will cost about NZ$2000 including basic installation - that’s with the units on the same wall, ground floor, including the line set cover and running a new circuit if you need one. A 9.7kW model is only $3500. Again New Zealand dollars so halve that for US. Also that includes a 10 year warranty. I know our labour costs are goin…

I’ve heard similar prices for Europe and elsewhere in the world. The US pricing seems to be uniquely out of step with everywhere else.

Re: Harnessing America's heat pump moment

#394

Post by kragen »

ip26 wrote: post #281
kragen wrote: post #135

Earlier quoted context omitted.

They can work at lower temperatures, but they do need the auxiliary heat to deice the outside coils.

the aux heat comes in because their output is a multiplier. At 30F, perhaps they produce 4x the heat as the electricity put in. At 0F, perhaps they produce 1.8x the heat. This means the output declines with temperature, until eventually they don't produce enough heat to hold temperature. Enter aux heat. Cold weather heat pumps help because they stay above 1x for longer, but you also wind up needing to oversize a bit.

Thank you for explaining!

Re: Harnessing America's heat pump moment

#395

Post by kragen »

eldaisfish wrote: post #193
kragen wrote: post #135

Earlier quoted context omitted.

They can work at lower temperatures, but they do need the auxiliary heat to deice the outside coils.

auxiliary heat is a separate heat source for the indoors. Most cold climate heat pumps run a defrost cycle to melt ice off the outdoor unit. that's different from auxiliary heat.

I see!

Re: Harnessing America's heat pump moment

#396

Post by yojo »

0xDEAFBEAD wrote: post #366
yojo wrote: post #162

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It’s bonkers. I bought a pre-charged ductless mini split to DIY. Took my dad and I about four hours to do the install. So call it 8 hours of semi-skilled labor. The unit was $1350, I added a line set cover, pad and feet for another $200, and needed about $200 in electrical equipment - it was a long wire run and code requires installing a disconnect box. The only special tool was a hole saw bit for running the coolant…

Now that you've got some experience, maybe you should start a heat pump installation company :-)

My time is still worth more slinging bits. But if that well runs dry, I’d consider it.

Re: Harnessing America's heat pump moment

#397

Post by orwin »

steveBK123 wrote: post #376
kalleboo wrote: post #222

Earlier quoted context omitted.

For comparison, I just bought a house here in Japan. Installed 6 minisplit heat pumps across various rooms in the house. All together it cost me 750,000 yen ($5,000) for the hardware and 90,000 yen ($600) for the install.

In US the labor & markup is a huge component. I got HVAC drop-in replacement quotes ranging from $7k to $14k for what upon some quick research was about $3k in hardware.

Can you do the installation yourself? In my country i have to make a HVAC technician come to check the installation and sign a paper before i can start mine (200€ for a 15 minutes job, but it's less than the 2-4k it would cost to not do it myself)

[edit] i say that because my hardware is 2.5k euros, so ~3k¯dollars, so we probably have the same high end stuff, and i guarantee you it's not hard to install, and it can be quite fast if you have help from your SO.

Re: Harnessing America's heat pump moment

#398

Post by caminante »

Scene_Cast2 wrote: post #362
bluGill wrote: post #331

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Indoor propane furnaces exhaust outdoors in most cases. Space heaters that exhaust indoors are rare - more used for garrage heat than house. If you use them of course actount for it, but most are not.

Theoretically yes, in practice no. There is (according to my sensors) a fairly large CO2 increase inside a room when a modern furnace (with external exhaust) is running. I've confirmed this with several units (all made in the last 10 years), and it's not that the windows are closed - when the furnace turns off, the CO2 drops. And it's not that the exhaust is placed in a bad spot either.

> There is (according to my sensors) a fairly large CO2 increase inside a room when a modern furnace

If this is happening, then you shouldn't be using that furnace/room!

Something beyond the furnace is not configured right.

Re: Harnessing America's heat pump moment

#399

Post by thelastgallon »

bluGill wrote: post #332
thelastgallon wrote: post #276

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Residential electricity rates have risen fast across the US—more than 30 percent on average since 2020 and almost double the rate of inflation: https://www.wired.com/story/power-bills-in-the-us-are-soarin...

Very regional though - my rates have not gone up.

Electricity prices are going up nearly everywhere. Bitcoin and AI are a wealth transfer from everyone to the crypto/AI folks.

Wholesale electricity costs as much as 267% more than it did five years ago in areas near data centers. That's being passed on to customers: https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2025-ai-data-centers-elec...

Re: Harnessing America's heat pump moment

#400

Post by sevensor »

danielsju6 wrote: post #148

Maybe I have scar tissue from COVID prices but $20k to install a ductless heat pump vs. a $200 to throw a window A/C in or $700 for a portable heat pump. While I get that these heat pumps are better for the environment and much more efficient it's a last mile issue. The installers charge an arm and a leg and I'm not hurting enough to self install. I'm hoping the window heat pumps that just run off mains will be avail…

My house came with ghastly inefficient heating (ceiling cable) and no AC. Mini splits were worth every penny.
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