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Andrej Karpathy – It will take a decade to work through the issues with agents

dwarkesh.com

391–400 of 1001 posts

Re: Andrej Karpathy – It will take a decade to work through the issues with agents

#391
post #246

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Right, but modeling the structure of language is a question of modeling word order and binding affinities. It's the Chinese Room thought experiment - can you get away with a form of "understanding" which is fundamentally incomplete but still produces reasonable outputs? Language in itself attempts to model the world and the processes by which it changes. Knowing which parts-of-speech about sunrises appear together an…

LLMs aren't just modeling word co-occurrences. They are recovering the underlying structure that generates word sequences. In other words, they are modeling the world. This model is quite low fidelity, but it should be very clear that they go beyond language modeling. We all know of the pelican riding a bicycle test [1]. Here's another example of how various language models view the world [2]. At this point it's just…

The "pelican on a bicycle" test has been around for six months and has been discussed a ton on the internet; that second example is fascinating but Wikipedia has infoboxes containing coordinates like 48°51′24″N 2°21′8″E (Paris, notoriously on land). How much would you bet that there isn't a CSV somewhere in the training set exactly containing this data for use in some GIS system?

I think that "modeling the world" is a red herring, and that fundamentally an LLM can only model its input modalities.

Yes, you could say this about human beings, but I think a more useful definition of "model the world" is that a model needs to realize any facts that would be obvious to a person.

The fact that frontier models can easily be made to contradict themselves is proof enough to me that they cannot have any kind of sophisticated world model.

Re: Andrej Karpathy – It will take a decade to work through the issues with agents

#392
post #58

I would bet all of my assets of my life that AGI will not be seen in the lifetime of anyone reading this message right now. That includes anyone reading this message long after the lives of those reading it on its post date have ended. Which of course raises the interesting question of how I can make good on this bet.

>I would bet all of my assets of my life that AGI will not be seen in the lifetime of anyone reading this message right now. That includes anyone reading this message long after the lives of those reading it on its post date have ended. By almost any definition available during the 90s GPT-5 Thinking/Pro would pretty much qualify. The idea that we are somehow not going to make any progress for the next century seems…

They have to say that, or there'll be a loud sucking sound and hundreds of billions in capital will be withdrawn overnight

Re: Andrej Karpathy – It will take a decade to work through the issues with agents

#393

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Nonsense. A QC operator may be able to carry out a test with as much accuracy (or perhaps better accuracy, with enough practice) than the PhD quality chemist who developed it. They could plausibly do so with a high school education and not be able to explain the test in any detail. They do not understand the test in the same way as the chemist. If 'understand' is a meaningless term to someone who's spent 30 years in…

> They do not understand the test in the same way as the chemist. Can you explain precisely what 'understand' means here, without using the word 'understand'? I don't think anyone can.

Not to be flippant but have you considered that that question is an entire branch of philosophy with a several-millennias long history which people in some cases spend their entire life studying?

Re: Andrej Karpathy – It will take a decade to work through the issues with agents

#394
post #292
post #279

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think this a useful challenge to our normal way of thinking. At the same time, "the world" exists only in our imagination (per our brain). Therefore, if LLMs need a model of a world, and they're trained on the corpus of human knowledge (which passed through our brains), then what's the difference, especially when LLMs are going back into our brains anyway?

Language isn't thought. It's a representation of thought.

Its very interesting to see how many people struggle to understand this.

Re: Andrej Karpathy – It will take a decade to work through the issues with agents

#395
post #332

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Jonas & Kording showed that neuroscience methods couldn't reverse-engineer a simple 6502 processor [0]. If the tools can't crack a system we built and fully documented, our inability to simulate brains just means we're ignorant, not that substrate is magic. It also doesn't necessarily say great things for neuroscience! And "who said this?"... come on. Searle, Dreyfus, thirty years of "syntax isn't semantics," all the…

So everyone in neuroscience is ignorant but not you?

There is a lot of hocus pocus in neuroscience. Next to psychology, anthropology and macroeconomics.

That doesn’t make the field useless nor OP’s point correct.

Re: Andrej Karpathy – It will take a decade to work through the issues with agents

#396
post #210

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Depends on the definition, I might take that bet because under some definitions were already here. Example: better than average human across many thinking tasks is done.

I think that the definition needs to include something about performance on out-of-training tasks. Otherwise we're just talking about machine learning, not anything like AGI.

Yes, like stated in this video: https://youtu.be/COOAssGkF6I

Re: Andrej Karpathy – It will take a decade to work through the issues with agents

#397
post #162

A definition of AGI: https://www.agidefinition.ai/ A new contribution by quite a few prominent authors. One of the better efforts at defining AGI *objectively*, rather than through indirect measures like economic impact. I believe it is incomplete because the psychological theory it is based on is incomplete. It is definitely worth discussing though. —- In particular, creative problem solving in the strong sense, ie…

I don't know a single one of the "Social Science" items, and I'm pretty sure 90% of college educated people wouldn't know a single one either.

Not only that, but the notion that GPT-5 will answer those questions with only 2% accuracy seems suspect. Those are exactly the kinds of questions that current models are great at.

Nothing about that page makes much sense.

Re: Andrej Karpathy – It will take a decade to work through the issues with agents

#398
13 minutes in Andrej is talking about how the models don't even really need the knowledge, it would be better to have just a core that has the algorithms it's learned, a "cognitive core." That sounds awesome, and would shrink the size of the models for sure. You don't need the entire knowledge of the internet compressed down and stashed in vram somewhere. Lots of implications.

Re: Andrej Karpathy – It will take a decade to work through the issues with agents

#399

I always get a weird feeling when AI researchers and CS people start talking about comparisons between human brains and AI/computers Why is there a presumption that we (as people who have only studied CS) know enough about biology/neuroscience/evolution to make these comparisons/parallels/analogies? I enjoy the discussions but I always get the thought in the back of my head "...remember you're listening to 2 CS major…

Ive also found this jarring and it speaks to the hubris of folks that have emerged in the past few decades who dont seem to have much relation to the humanities and liberal arts.

Re: Andrej Karpathy – It will take a decade to work through the issues with agents

#400
I wish the world could stop giving claims like this, in general, any attention.

We do not know how "far away" we are from "AGI" period. It's also useless. If you're correct...so what? Someone may have been able to perfectly predict the advent of railway travel. Guess what, this gave them 0 advantage unless they already had tons of capital to invest, which is effectively what makes the realization of the predicted thing come to fruition in the first place. Bets like these are at best self-fulfilling prophecies if you are a billionaire and at worst ideal chatter that makes us all stupider the more time we waste on them and the more we let wildly unchecked claims like this dictate behaviors in the present that actually affect us.

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