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America is getting an AI gold rush instead of a factory boom

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Re: America is getting an AI gold rush instead of a factory boom

#391

Post by technothrasher »

bluGill wrote: post #364
tclancy wrote: post #302

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There is a really interesting generation gap issue in the replies to your comment. What I perceive as younger people are horrified at the idea of fifty year old tools while the older folks are thinking (I imagine) “if the tools have lasted that long they must be well-honed and very good”. Of course, this could simply be the perspective of someone turning 50 this year.

As an older folk, I perceive 50 year old tools as likely worn out and in desperate need of replacement. However often nobody makes the tool anymore and so we are willing to spend a lot to maintain them instead. (I drive a 25 year old car - this is only possible because I can get a rebuilt transmission, but my maintenance costs over the last 10 years would have bought much newer/nicer used car, and I'm getting close t…

I was recently talking to the head clockmaker at the Chelsea Clock Company, one of the very few, if not the only, remaining original New England clock companies still operating. He showed me some pictures of clock making tools being used during WWII, and then the very same tools in perfect shape still being used today. He also had one tool that dated back to when they were the Boston Clock Company (circa 1894) that was still in active use. In this new world of disposable tools, it was pretty neat to see.

Re: America is getting an AI gold rush instead of a factory boom

#392

Post by anonymousDan »

thaack wrote: post #28
lnsru wrote: post #21

Just my 5 cents. Running factory is damn hard job. 10 products built from 50 different parts having 70 different vendors is a small nightmare. So me people can manage that, but the most can’t. Most people in Western world also cannot imagine staying at conveyor belt or table doing the same assembly task whole week. I work in a factory and see this daily.

> Most people in Western world also cannot imagine staying at conveyor belt or table doing the same assembly task whole week. I work in a factory and see this daily. My family owns a small plastic manufacturing plant in the US. This is the biggest problem they face. The western worker's appetite for a low skill monotonous manufacturing job is very small. The business loses employees to Walmart etc. despite the factor…

Not trying to troll but it seems like there must be some way to make the job at least a little interesting (e.g. by rotating the tasks required, providing a little space for skill development)?

Re: America is getting an AI gold rush instead of a factory boom

#393

Post by nradov »

protocolture wrote: post #320
nebula8804 wrote: post #228

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There is a demographic implosion coming soon. You look at a video like this and count how many humans there are to make this $20-30 speaker and you realize that this $20 speaker is not going to be automated, its just going to go away as an option. [1]: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yFYxSX6xP2U

>Population implosion Still fail to see evidence of that. I wouldnt go around making such a huge blanket statement, without even london horse manure crisis level evidence.

Here's the evidence. Not a sudden implosion but a slow decline that will particularly impact the younger population groups who have typically done most of the manual labor in factories.

https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2022/12/05/key-facts...

Re: America is getting an AI gold rush instead of a factory boom

#394

Post by bluGill »

baq wrote: post #310
al_borland wrote: post #183

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I worked in a factory for a few months. They moved me around on the line. While each week looked the same, each day in the week was different. Though I was told by some of the other guys on the line that it was one of the nicer factories they ever worked in. I did some tech work in a few auto factories as well, and those had a very different vibe on the floor. While it may be boring to someone who use used to doing k…

The thing is, minimum wage there pays for 10 people on the floor in Asia and the cost of the factory is approximately the same. There’s no economic sense to build a factory in the states… which is where all the government subsidies enter the stage, but the budget is already running a war time deficit. It’s going to be so much worse for those small used-to-be-factory cities until the printer starts for real, and then…

> There’s no economic sense to build a factory in the states…

That isn't how it works. Details matter.

A local factory can save a ton of money because it can be more just in time - you don't have to build excess because of shipping times. (shipping costs can also save a lot of money for a local factory).

The states have lots of cheap reliable power (not perfectly reliable, but close enough). If your production line is mostly automated (or could be) the states are cheaper - there isn't much labor anyway.

Production close to engineering makes for a lot of savings because when a part is designed you can get a prototype to testing faster.

there are lots of other factors, and most are not in the favor of local production but there are several that are. Where you fall is an optimization problem and there is no one right answer for everything.

Re: America is getting an AI gold rush instead of a factory boom

#395

Post by baq »

cpursley wrote: post #318
baq wrote: post #316

Earlier quoted context omitted.

China demographics are disastrous, this is not propaganda, it’s facts. That doesn’t mean western aren’t disastrous. I agree it won’t matter too much, they’ll automate more so they won’t need this many people.

So how is that a disaster? Wasn't one of the big concerns a decade or go about over population? This means less agriculture required, more land for nature, less pollution, fewer energy needs, etc.

It's a disaster for China's economy in the long term unless they automate themselves, which they'll very much want to do. It isn't a disaster for the natural ecosystem obviously.

Re: America is getting an AI gold rush instead of a factory boom

#396

Post by rglover »

ACCount37 wrote: post #346
tclancy wrote: post #302

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There is a really interesting generation gap issue in the replies to your comment. What I perceive as younger people are horrified at the idea of fifty year old tools while the older folks are thinking (I imagine) “if the tools have lasted that long they must be well-honed and very good”. Of course, this could simply be the perspective of someone turning 50 this year.

My first thought is: "when that wears out or fails what the fuck are you replacing it with".

A shockingly rare question to be asked. As best as I can tell, the biggest threat to civilization isn't AI, it's our culture of "that's not my problem" leaving otherwise patch-able holes in critical systems.

Re: America is getting an AI gold rush instead of a factory boom

#397

Post by the_gipsy »

dluan wrote: post #278

My dad is an immigrant from China who came to America to learn process engineering. After getting his master's, his first job was at a Reynold's aluminum factory in Alabama, and his factory made aluminum stuff and sometimes bottles. 40 years later, after lots of career jumps, he is about to retire this month from Google's AI division. I don't really know what the lesson here is.

America will retire after AI?

Re: America is getting an AI gold rush instead of a factory boom

#398

Post by red-iron-pine »

bluGill wrote: post #375
iancmceachern wrote: post #168

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Exactly, I'm a mechanical engineer and I still have tools given to me by my machinist great uncle from WWII that are not only functional, they're identical to a new tool I'd buy today for that purpose, from the same manufacturer. This is the difference the OP was highlighting

Are those tools functional? Have you ever checked? I'm not sure what tools you are talking about, but likely some of them are measurement tools and they can seem to work perfect while giving the wrong measurement. Other might be cutting tools that cut, but they are a bit dull and if you don't know how to check you won't realize the cuts are not as good as new anymore (or maybe you have sharpened them and they now cut…

> but likely some of them are measurement tools

where and why did you come to this conclusion?

Re: America is getting an AI gold rush instead of a factory boom

#399

Post by minkeymaniac »

fidotron wrote: post #332
tclancy wrote: post #302

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There is a really interesting generation gap issue in the replies to your comment. What I perceive as younger people are horrified at the idea of fifty year old tools while the older folks are thinking (I imagine) “if the tools have lasted that long they must be well-honed and very good”. Of course, this could simply be the perspective of someone turning 50 this year.

I'm somewhere in the middle, young enough that almost everything I've seen new is disposable crap (including the tools), old enough that I have had an interest in things from before and noticed that they really were built much better, or at least heavier, back then. I've made the comment on here before that I believe it's short term energy optimisation, in that it used to be seen as reasonable to much heavier objects…

Yes.. try moving that 36 inch Sony Trinitron from the car inside the house.. weighs 200 pounds+ IIRC....you need at least 2 strong people

Re: America is getting an AI gold rush instead of a factory boom

#400

Post by rglover »

ryandrake wrote: post #108
mullingitover wrote: post #44

The US spent decades transitioning from a manufacturing economy to a service economy, deliberately. Now there's a populist making political hay, throwing out numbers about trade deficits, which ignores revenue from services . Yes, there is have a trade deficit on goods, that was a long-term strategy because services were a superior investment. Manufacturing is an inferior way to make money unless you're planning to g…

I don't know why people romanticize 1950-style manufacturing jobs so much, like they are some kind of objectively ideal job. These jobs really weren't great. Bunch of dudes standing at an assembly line all day physically busting their asses and sweating it out. Sometimes in a physically hazardous environment. Sometimes breathing stinky and/or harmful chemicals. Sometimes surrounded by ear-damaging loud noises. Someti…

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