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OpenAI's H1 2025: $4.3B in income, $13.5B in loss

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Re: OpenAI's H1 2025: $4.3B in income, $13.5B in loss

#391
post #337

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Google is older and many of the products you describe were acquisitions (inorganic growth).

By this point I imagine it's a novelty to find any code from the original acquisition in those products.

Code is secondary. Pmf is primary.

Code is a commodity. Very easy to make. Now even llms are commodities. There are other intangible assets more valuable. Like the chatgpt brand here.

Re: OpenAI's H1 2025: $4.3B in income, $13.5B in loss

#392
post #278

Earlier quoted context omitted.

OpenAI isn't ahead

It is in terms of users. There's a lot of sticking power to "the thing you already know and use".

Probably consumers. Enterprise is Anthropic, double ahead: https://menlovc.com/perspective/2025-mid-year-llm-market-upd...

note that menlo is invested in anthropic, but still..

Re: OpenAI's H1 2025: $4.3B in income, $13.5B in loss

#393
post #347
post #336

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The moment they start mixing ads into responses Ill stop using them. Open models are good enough, its just more convenient to use chatgpt right now, but that can change.

People said the same thing about so many other online services since the 90s. The issue is that you're imagining ChatGPT as it exists right now with your current use case but just with ads inserted into their product. That's not really how these things go... instead OpenAI will wait until their product becomes so ingrained in everyday usage that you can't just decide to stop using them. It is possible, although not c…

Except it's hard to imagine a world where chatgpt is heads and shoulders over the other llms in capability. Google has no problem keeping up and let's not forget that China has state-sponsored programs for AI development.

Re: OpenAI's H1 2025: $4.3B in income, $13.5B in loss

#394
I am the only one who thinks, "that's not as bad as I expected"?

Because I can be quite bearish and frankly this isn't bad for a technology that is this new. The income points to significant interest in using the tech and they haven't even started the tried-and-true SV strategy we lovingly call enshittification (I'm not trying to be ironic, I mean it)

Re: OpenAI's H1 2025: $4.3B in income, $13.5B in loss

#395
post #362

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What is OpenAI's competitive moat? There's no product stickiness here. What prevents people from just using Google, who can build AI stuff into their existing massive search/ads/video/email/browser infrastructure? Normal, non-technical users can't tell the difference between these models at all, so their usage numbers are highly dependent on marketing. Google has massive distribution with world-wide brands that peopl…

Users' chat history is the moat. The more you use it, the more it knows about you and can help you in ways that are customized to particular user. That makes it sticky, more so than web search. Also brand recognition, ChatGPT is the default general purpose LLM choice for most people. Everyone and their mom is using it.

Gemini is probably the default general purpose LLM since its answers are inserted into every google result.

Re: OpenAI's H1 2025: $4.3B in income, $13.5B in loss

#396
post #362

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What is OpenAI's competitive moat? There's no product stickiness here. What prevents people from just using Google, who can build AI stuff into their existing massive search/ads/video/email/browser infrastructure? Normal, non-technical users can't tell the difference between these models at all, so their usage numbers are highly dependent on marketing. Google has massive distribution with world-wide brands that peopl…

Users' chat history is the moat. The more you use it, the more it knows about you and can help you in ways that are customized to particular user. That makes it sticky, more so than web search. Also brand recognition, ChatGPT is the default general purpose LLM choice for most people. Everyone and their mom is using it.

Walling in my personal data would be a sure sign way to get me to not use OpenAI.

Re: OpenAI's H1 2025: $4.3B in income, $13.5B in loss

#397
post #383

Earlier quoted context omitted.

ChatGpt has won. I talk to all teens living nearby and they all use chatgpt and not Google. The teens, they don't know what is OpenAI, they don't know what is Gemini. They sure know what is ChatGPT.

I'm not saying you're wrong, but people said the same thing about Yahoo, Excite, Lycos, etc. in 1999. Interesting times, then and now.

I think the biggest risk to ChatGPT as a consumer brand is that they don’t own the device surface. Google / Microsoft / Apple could make great AI that’s infused in the OS / browser, eliminating the need to go to ChatGPT.

Re: OpenAI's H1 2025: $4.3B in income, $13.5B in loss

#398
post #362

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What is OpenAI's competitive moat? There's no product stickiness here. What prevents people from just using Google, who can build AI stuff into their existing massive search/ads/video/email/browser infrastructure? Normal, non-technical users can't tell the difference between these models at all, so their usage numbers are highly dependent on marketing. Google has massive distribution with world-wide brands that peopl…

>non-technical users can't tell the difference between these models at all My non-tech friend said she prefer ChatGPT more than Gemini, most due to its tone. So non-tech people may not know the different in technical detail, but they sure can have bias.

I have a non-techy friend who used 4o for that exact reason. Compared to most readily available chatbots, 4o just provides more engaging answers to non-techy questions. He likes to have extended conversations about philosophy and consciousness with it. I showed him R1, and he was fascinated by the reasoning process. Makes sense, given the sorts of questions he likes to ask it.

I think OpenAI is pursuing a different market from Google right now. ChatGPT is a companion, Gemini is a tool. That's a totally arbitrary divide, though. Change out the system prompts and the web frontend. Ta-daa, you're in a different market segment now.

Re: OpenAI's H1 2025: $4.3B in income, $13.5B in loss

#399

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I agree, but the question is whether or not normal people will stop using them.

I think the empirical answer is no. Look at how many ads there are in everything and people still use it.

Normal people ignore ads. It gets easier with time. Television with ads means conversation about what we just watched.

Re: OpenAI's H1 2025: $4.3B in income, $13.5B in loss

#400
post #231

I think people are massively underestimating the money they will come from ads in the future. They generated $4.3B in revenue without any advertising program to monetise their 700 million weekly active users, most of whom use the free product. Google earns essentially all of its revenue from ads, $264B in 2024. ChatGPT has more consumer trust than Google at this point, and numerous ways of inserting sponsored results…

The problem with this is that I have moved to Gemini with zero loss in functionality, and I’m pretty sure that Google is 100x better at ads than OpenAI.
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