The thing everyone forgets when talking about LLMs replacing coders is that there is much more to software engineering than writing code, in fact that's probably one of the smaller aspects of the job. One major aspect of software engineering is social, requirements analysis and figuring out what the customer actually wants, they often don't know. If a human engineer struggles to figure out what a customer wants and a…
Chat UIs are an excellent customer feedback loop. Agents develop new iterations very quickly.
LLMs can absolutely handle abstractions and different kinds of component systems and overall architecture design.
They can also handle requirements analysis. But it comes back to iteration for the bottom line which means fast turnaround time for changes.
The robustness and IQ of the models continue to be improved. All of software engineering is well underway of being automated.
Probably five years max where un-augmented humans are still generally relevant for most work. You are going to need deep integration of AI into your own cognition somehow in order to avoid just being a bottleneck.