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Trump temporarily drops tariffs to 10% for most countries

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Re: Trump temporarily drops tariffs to 10% for most countries

#391
post #136

So we're all in for another ride like this in 3 months? How are businesses supposed to plan anything in this environment? As nice as this surge is, I'm more focused on upping my cash reserves and bracing myself for a recession.

Why cash when inflation is coming?

Cash often refers to Money Market funds and the interest they pay tends to track inflation. There are also ibonds but you can invest a fairly limited amount in them.

Re: Trump temporarily drops tariffs to 10% for most countries

#392

So we're all in for another ride like this in 3 months? How are businesses supposed to plan anything in this environment? As nice as this surge is, I'm more focused on upping my cash reserves and bracing myself for a recession.

> How are businesses supposed to plan anything in this environment? Who cares? Business leaders & the politicians they helped elect are stripping the copper from the country. Whatever's left when they're done is someone else's problem.

You should care because uncertainty leads to cancelled & deferred projects, which leads to reduced demand, which leads to reduced jobs.

If I don't know if Trump is literal or serious about re-shoring to normalize trade deficits, or its just a revenue gimmick, or if its all going to be delayed, or negotiated away ... am I moving any production back to the US? No.

Plants are cancelling orders as they are uncertain what the tariff might be by the time goods ship.

Etc.

Burn it all down is not a governing philosophy.

Re: Trump temporarily drops tariffs to 10% for most countries

#394
post #385

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I have a trip to China on Saturday and I'm worried about: a. Chinese retaliation. I don't think they are going to start arresting Americans, but it might get uncomfortable if I don't have my passport in the subway station. b. American retaliation. My wife has a greencard, this is actually worrying me more than anything, although as far as I have heard so far, we should be OK. Trip is still on. I'm really interested i…

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I don't think you have lived experience to back that up. There are definitely people being turned away at customs in the US, and China has targeted nationals of other countries they have disputes with (e.g. during the Huawei daughter incident and putting two Canadians in jail for two years while she got house arrest in her mansion). And anyways, having your passport in a Beijing subway station is just the way things are now (never was needed before, but they random check all the time before I left in 2016).

Re: Trump temporarily drops tariffs to 10% for most countries

#395
post #284

Trump is like your father who overreacts to everything but changes his mind when he calms down. "You're grounded for a year!". 1 hour later. "Ok, you're not grounded. But you can't go out with your friend this weekend".

poor analogy since this implies that Trump has everyone's best interests in his heart

Re: Trump temporarily drops tariffs to 10% for most countries

#396

So we're all in for another ride like this in 3 months? How are businesses supposed to plan anything in this environment? As nice as this surge is, I'm more focused on upping my cash reserves and bracing myself for a recession.

> How are businesses supposed to plan anything in this environment?

Plan on relying less on the US market. Grow customers elsewhere.

Re: Trump temporarily drops tariffs to 10% for most countries

#397
"It’s the T-bills wot dun it."

That’s my read on why the U.S. just paused the global tariff hike to 10%.

From the beginning, I’ve believed the executive branch's real goal was to push down the yield on the 10-year Treasury. Why? Because Uncle Sam has to refinance a mountain of debt this year, and the cost of that depends heavily on Treasury yields — especially the 10-year. That’s the rate that sets the tone for everything from mortgages to corporate borrowing.

So they tried to spook markets. Introduce global tariffs. Stir up uncertainty. And it worked—at first. Yields dipped. Traders moved to Treasuries as a typical flight-to-safety.

But then something flipped.

Instead of being seen as a safe haven, U.S. debt itself started to look shaky. Maybe it was the deficit outlook, maybe the global response to tariffs — but whatever it was, yields started climbing. Fast.

At that point, the strategy backfired. The executive branch had no choice but to walk it back. So they paused the tariffs.

Because when your national budget depends on cheap debt, you can't afford a crisis of confidence in your bonds.

Re: Trump temporarily drops tariffs to 10% for most countries

#398

My takeaway from what I've read and heard in the last few weeks is that his only actual motivation is to 'win'. He bragged yesterday that other countries are kissing his ass to negotiate deals on the tariffs. I think that was all he wanted, I think he now thinks that this whole tariff thing was a success and he's going to move on to the next crazy idea. The rest of us suffer for it, except for the sad portion of the…

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Permanent damage has been done to our relationships with countries that have always been our allies.

Permanent damage has to our economic markets, since everyone now knows that everything can change on the whim of a single man.

Permanent damage has been done to any reputation we've had as a supporter of democracy worldwide now that we've abandoned our support of Ukraine.

Permanent damage has been done to our own faith in our country. Any pride I had in our values and democracy has slipped away, now I know that they were all illusions.

Re: Trump temporarily drops tariffs to 10% for most countries

#399
post #106

So Trump destroyed the hard-earned 80-year history of the United States for strength and stability for what exactly?

Apparently he's been bragging today that world leaders are "kissing his ass", which seems to be just as likely to be his motivation as anything else. He's also planning a $100M military parade in DC, apparently on his birthday (although he denies that point). He's a wannabe dictator - seems same motivation for Greenland, Panana, Canada (51st state), maybe also strikes on Houthi.

> He's also planning a $100M military parade in DC, apparently on his birthday (although he denies that point).

This would be straight Roman Emperor stuff.

Re: Trump temporarily drops tariffs to 10% for most countries

#400

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> How are businesses supposed to plan anything in this environment? Who cares? Business leaders & the politicians they helped elect are stripping the copper from the country. Whatever's left when they're done is someone else's problem.

You should care because uncertainty leads to cancelled & deferred projects, which leads to reduced demand, which leads to reduced jobs. If I don't know if Trump is literal or serious about re-shoring to normalize trade deficits, or its just a revenue gimmick, or if its all going to be delayed, or negotiated away ... am I moving any production back to the US? No. Plants are cancelling orders as they are uncertain what…

I'm not a billionaire. What I care about doesn't matter.
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