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TSMC expected to announce $100B investment in U.S.

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Re: TSMC expected to announce $100B investment in U.S.

#391

Post by alephnan »

tnt128 wrote: post #314

The idea that the US protects Taiwan from a possible Chinese invasion over chips is one of those things that sounds believable but really isn't going to happen. From China’s perspective, the cost of war is much higher than the cost of developing these chips themselves. In the worst-case scenario, they would be 2-3 years behind the cutting edge, which is not mission-critical. Most electronics (civilian or military) do…

> From China’s perspective, the cost of war is much higher than the cost of developing these chips themselves.

There are more reasons than chips.

First is Chinese nationalism. The Island of Taiwan has been under the control of various Chinese regimes over the centuries. Taking Taiwan is a rejection of the West and can be tied by to the "century of humiliation".

America has military posts in Korea, Japan, Phillipines blockading China's entrance to the larger Pacific Ocean. Having Taiwan would allow them to break this up.

On Taiwan is also a trove of Chinese art and antiques.

Re: TSMC expected to announce $100B investment in U.S.

#392

Post by appointment »

DeathArrow wrote: post #359
pj_mukh wrote: post #228

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"Moreover, a lot of other countries will totally provide "lethal aid" and intelligence to China, if it needs it, in hopes of taking the hegemon down a few pegs." This seems...not true. The Phillipines especially would like a word. Most of China's neighbors are begging for more American Hegemony (America is just not good at it anymore). China's industrial prowess is clear, but it's also true that. China (esp the CCP)…

>The Phillipines especially would like a word. BRICS will support China. Most of the unaligned countries will do the same. It will be US, EU, Canada, Australia, Japan, Philippines against the rest of the world. And it's not so much about military might as is about industrial capacity, raw materials and logistics.

The idea that Brazil, South Africa and fucking India would support the PRC against the USA is absurd.

Re: TSMC expected to announce $100B investment in U.S.

#393

Post by qwertox »

tnt128 wrote: post #314

The idea that the US protects Taiwan from a possible Chinese invasion over chips is one of those things that sounds believable but really isn't going to happen. From China’s perspective, the cost of war is much higher than the cost of developing these chips themselves. In the worst-case scenario, they would be 2-3 years behind the cutting edge, which is not mission-critical. Most electronics (civilian or military) do…

If China has a seriously good-enough, home-made processor and storage chips, it could gain from a war with Taiwan. If this would mean to cripple the EU's and possibly also US's and to a lesser degree it's own economy through the absence of chips on the market, having that good-enough, home-made processor would be what keeps China afloat, while the rest drowns. And if it could get Taiwan and its chip manufacturing capabilities, it would have won the war with even bigger gains. At least the EU has no way to survive without Taiwan selling them chips.

Re: TSMC expected to announce $100B investment in U.S.

#394

Post by barrenko »

re-thc wrote: post #386
UberFly wrote: post #368

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Why would China even invade Taiwan? For the same reasons they invaded and took Hong Kong. Because they have their own manifest destiny to reunify their country into what it once was. They don't care about the collateral damage to achieve this in the end.

> For the same reasons they invaded and took Hong Kong. When was this a thing? Britain gave up control "voluntarily". There's been no military conflict whatsoever. Yes, I get that there were changes in law, protests and all sorts of things but those all already happened when Hong Kong was part of China i.e. there was no "invasion".

... the same thing will apply later on after the successful "non-invasion" of Taiwan.

Re: TSMC expected to announce $100B investment in U.S.

#395

Post by qwertox »

android521 wrote: post #344
mu53 wrote: post #338

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The US is not going to help defend Taiwan is a fair thesis, but reciprocally, China is not going to attack Taiwan. Even if Russia gets all of it's demands in the peacemaking process with Ukraine, that war has done permanent and lasting damage to it's economy and global position. For China to attack Taiwan, it would give up any hope of continuing it's healthy trends towards increased economic and political importance.…

Unfortunately, dictators don't care much about damage to it's economy as long as they continue to be in power. When they expand and occupy more land, they will look very good in their country's history book which is a huge motivation for dictators. That's the reason why nobody thought Putin would seriously consider invasion but he did. And China will definitely attack Taiwan when the timing is right. Even if a millio…

Russia is out of the AI race. That has been lost and there's no way to reverse it.

If Russia wouldn't have started a war, it could have focused on building huge datacenters. It has all the energy it would have needed, now all it can do with it is sell it to China for cheap.

Re: TSMC expected to announce $100B investment in U.S.

#396

Post by toyg »

_t9ow wrote: post #377
UberFly wrote: post #369

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Just a reminder that the current administration just removed the "we don't recognize Taiwan as a sovereign nation" from the official state policy.

Their posturing during peacetime does not translate into showing up during wartime. In fact we have already seen how they cosy up to dictators during wartime. The USA spent decades and decades backing military coups and assassinating democratically elected leaders all over the world under the guise of fighting the Cold War only to suddenly do a U-turn and pander to Putin. Russia has won the Cold War without direct mi…

> Russia has won the Cold War without direct military confrontation with the US.

Let's not rewrite history just to score some cheap propaganda points: the USSR lost the Cold War, and lost it badly. Russia (or rather, putinism) might be winning Cold War II, or The Oligarchic Wars, or whatever you want to call this new conflict, but the actual Cold War ended in the 90s.

Re: TSMC expected to announce $100B investment in U.S.

#397

Post by WhereIsTheTruth »

UberFly wrote: post #368
throw84949499 wrote: post #360

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Why would China even invide Taiwan? It would destroy "their" infrastructure and kill "their" people! There are much better ways to remove US influence from Taiwan! They can just put sanctions or even blockade Taiwan. And if China puts sanctions on US, and dumps its USD reserves, it can destroy US economy. US is crazy about proxies fighting their "enemies" for them. This type of thinking needs to stop! This is not col…

Why would China even invade Taiwan? For the same reasons they invaded and took Hong Kong. Because they have their own manifest destiny to reunify their country into what it once was. They don't care about the collateral damage to achieve this in the end.

You got brainwashed

https://crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/IF/IF12503/1

"1982 U.S.-PRC Joint Communiqué/Six Assurances

As they negotiated establishment of diplomatic relations, the U.S. and PRC governments agreed to set aside the contentious issue of U.S. arms sales to Taiwan. They took up that issue in the 1982 August 17 Communiqué, in which the PRC states “a fundamental policy of striving for peaceful reunification” with Taiwan, and the U.S. government states it “understands and appreciates” that policy. The U.S. government states in the 1982 communiqué that with those statements “in mind,” “it does not seek to carry out a long-term policy of arms sales to Taiwan,” and “intends gradually to reduce its sale of arms to Taiwan, leading, over a period of time, to a final resolution.” The U.S. government also declares “no intention” of “pursuing a policy of ‘two Chinas,’” meaning the PRC and the ROC, “or ‘one China, one Taiwan.’”"

Re: TSMC expected to announce $100B investment in U.S.

#398

Post by _t9ow »

toyg wrote: post #396
_t9ow wrote: post #377

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Their posturing during peacetime does not translate into showing up during wartime. In fact we have already seen how they cosy up to dictators during wartime. The USA spent decades and decades backing military coups and assassinating democratically elected leaders all over the world under the guise of fighting the Cold War only to suddenly do a U-turn and pander to Putin. Russia has won the Cold War without direct mi…

> Russia has won the Cold War without direct military confrontation with the US. Let's not rewrite history just to score some cheap propaganda points: the USSR lost the Cold War, and lost it badly. Russia (or rather, putinism) might be winning Cold War II, or The Oligarchic Wars, or whatever you want to call this new conflict, but the actual Cold War ended in the 90s.

I apologise; it was not my intention to rewrite history. It was a rhetorical device, though I can see how I came across as trying to be revisionist. But you're right that it's important to be precise.

Re: TSMC expected to announce $100B investment in U.S.

#399

Post by yujzgzc »

Trump involuntarily did more for Taiwan / mainland unification in one meeting with Zelensky than in all the years prior. Taiwanese now understand that they can't trust US to step up to their security commitments. If US won't do it for Europeans being savagely attacked by aggressive neighbors, they won't do it for Taiwanese being blockaded by mainland. At that point Taiwan tariffs and China tariffs will be the same. That was brandished as a powerful weapon about Hong Kong and didn't really do much.

Re: TSMC expected to announce $100B investment in U.S.

#400

Post by jacobp100 »

qwertox wrote: post #393
tnt128 wrote: post #314

The idea that the US protects Taiwan from a possible Chinese invasion over chips is one of those things that sounds believable but really isn't going to happen. From China’s perspective, the cost of war is much higher than the cost of developing these chips themselves. In the worst-case scenario, they would be 2-3 years behind the cutting edge, which is not mission-critical. Most electronics (civilian or military) do…

If China has a seriously good-enough, home-made processor and storage chips, it could gain from a war with Taiwan. If this would mean to cripple the EU's and possibly also US's and to a lesser degree it's own economy through the absence of chips on the market, having that good-enough, home-made processor would be what keeps China afloat, while the rest drowns. And if it could get Taiwan and its chip manufacturing cap…

The EU makes the machines that make the chips

Also in Taiwan these machines are fitted with bombs that will detonate if they’re invaded

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