Hacker News Board Hacker News, browsed like a classic message board
Live data from Hacker News

I have made the decision to disband Hindenburg Research

hindenburgresearch.com

Post reply on HN
Print view View original

391–400 of 430 posts

Re: I have made the decision to disband Hindenburg Research

#391

Post by nradov »

benreesman wrote: post #362
crayboff wrote: post #350

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> The amount of deceit put out into the world and gobbled up, on purpose, in business is obscene and seriously depressing. In business, politics, everything. It almost seems like everyone is quietly agreeing that "if we pretend the pesky truth doesn't exist for long enough, we can literally change reality to be what we want". I feel like I'm going crazy. There's no way that's how things can work for long, right?

By all accounts it was like this at the end in the USSR too: infinite nepotism, no accountability, crashing standard of living near the median, deaths of despair attached to crazy levels of dangerous substance use. This is what happens when bad people capture the levers of power. https://youtu.be/IUJMyTJ9gyI

There has never been a time in the history of the greater Russian Empire when good people captured the levers of power.

Re: I have made the decision to disband Hindenburg Research

#392

Post by rib3ye »

gmd63 wrote: post #59

I've ironically lost more money the more closely I've paid attention to my investments because I was naively confident in the market's ability (or as I've come to suspect, willingness) to react to evidence of fraud. The amount of deceit put out into the world and gobbled up, on purpose, in business is obscene and seriously depressing. The magnitude of damage to psyches and thus economies that anyone acting in a fraud…

Buffet has this saying: "the stock market in the short term is a voting machine and in the long-term it's a weighing machine." I think a modern version of that is, in the short term the price is narrative and in the long-term it's accounting.

With Berkshire, Buffet figured out early, and firms like Hindenburg capitalized on the strategy of showing both sides of the story.

Re: I have made the decision to disband Hindenburg Research

#393

Post by int_19h »

gmd63 wrote: post #340
throw10920 wrote: post #339

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Can you explain your views as to why incentives to harm the economy massively via fraud to benefit yourself need to exist? I never said that I hold that view nor do I believe it. Between you falsely ascribing views to me I do not hold and/or lying about my words, avoiding answering my question, and your emotional manipulation, it's clear that you're a troll and I don't have any need to respond to you beyond pointin…

If you don't support the current punishments, which evidently don't deter the crime, what's your idea of how they should be strengthened to adequately deter financial crime? I'm not trolling.

I'm not OP, but the obvious question here is whether tougher punishments would be more of a deterrent given that this is something that hasn't been true in many other cases going way back.

In particular, there seems to be substantial evidence that, at least past a certain point (and we can argue whether we are at that point or not, but it's not something self-evident either), what matters more is how likely the punishment is to be applied than how harsh it is, so increasing it further doesn't really do anything productive, just provides a public spectacle.

Re: I have made the decision to disband Hindenburg Research

#394

Post by int_19h »

fakedang wrote: post #218
chii wrote: post #168

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There was a case of food contamination in a fast food joint (can't remember which, let's say it was burger king). The stock fell as a result, but recovered relatively quick afterwards - you would've made bank buying it low. The thing is, individual, one off events usually don't break a company, but the stock falls temporarially as a result of some people expecting it to. Of course, it's possible that one event breaks…

> There was a case of food contamination in a fast food joint (can't remember which, let's say it was burger king). The stock fell as a result, but recovered relatively quick afterwards - you would've made bank buying it low. I think this was some years ago and it was Chipotle. They had to remove some menu items altogether IIRC.

It's a recurring thing. Back in the 90s it was Jack in the Box (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1992%E2%80%931993_Jack_in_the_...)

Re: I have made the decision to disband Hindenburg Research

#395

Post by fakedang »

mkagenius wrote: post #375
fakedang wrote: post #279

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Only failed Adani because they misunderstood how deep the Indian government would go to join in the cover-up, instead of actually investigating it. The Big 4 auditor for Supermicro literally quit, citing concerns. It's the SEC's job to do the investigating (and it's failed badly and likely to fail more with the coming admin).

I wouldn't be surprised if Adani just asked "How much money will you make in your life time?" And just offered the same to close the firm.

He might have offered, but doubt these guys would have taken it up.

There's something different about these short sellers and the typical ones we've had in the past (Soros, Chanos, Ackman, etc.).

Re: I have made the decision to disband Hindenburg Research

#396

Post by fckgw »

ElevenLathe wrote: post #376
fckgw wrote: post #353

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> These coins will be returned to the account holders which were affected by the hack. I haven't seen any reporting on that. Bitfinex, the corporate entity, is receiving the coins recovered from the feds. It's up to Bitfinex how they device to dole out those funds, if at all. When these things happen, often times exchanges will make their customers whole by giving back the monetary value of the coins at time of loss.…

IANAL but it seems like whoever is running Bitfinex should endeavour to make all the creditors whole in whatever medium their debt was denominated, according to seniority. So if they owe users X BTC and other creditors Y USD, and the BTC debts are senior, they should hand out the BTC to users regardless of its dollar value and, if there is any left, auction it off for the benefit of the (junior, in this scenario) USD…

They could, but there's nothing requiring them to do so.

AFAIK the only crypto company who have been hacked (and there are a lot) and returned funds as BTC and not in dollars is, ironically, Mt. Gox. Users got repaid in Bitcoin 10 years after the fact. FTX bagholders were compensated ~120% in "equivalent value" dollars. Lost crypto was not repaid.

Re: I have made the decision to disband Hindenburg Research

#397

Post by engineer_22 »

davidw wrote: post #390
engineer_22 wrote: post #367

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The statement by Nate Anderson does not contain any explicit or implicit connection to Elon Musk, Donald Trump, or the political climate. It's disappointing that you believe "money in power" is a new phenomenon uniquely exemplified by Elon's burgeoning interest in politics. Cuomo's monologue during the DNC about the falseness of "grass roots political power" in the United States is right on the mark. Biden's warning…

I said nothing about it being 'new' though, did I?

I did interpret your forecast as an observation of a new thing. I may have missed the nuance.

Re: I have made the decision to disband Hindenburg Research

#398

Post by jart »

ac29 wrote: post #329
jart wrote: post #295

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You mean VFIFX? What a disaster. My retirement plan put me in that until I realized investment advice for young people is a tax on the inexperienced and vulnerable. VFFSX (S&P 500) does 2x better returns every time. I feel guilty saying it on Hacker News. Like pension funds I bet Vanguard is one of these so-called LPs who give money to VCs like Y Combinator to help ivy league kids follow their dreams. Without these h…

> VFFSX (S&P 500) does 2x better returns every time US large cap has certainly recently outperformed the other parts of the target date fund (international stocks, bonds). But there is certainly no guarantee that it will happen "every time". In the last 10 years, US equity has been the best overall performing asset class for the past decade but 7 out of those 10 years at least one other category outperformed it: http…

And now GLD with its 1 year return at 40% is outperforming them both, which is a really scary thought. How bad do things have to be, that all our blood sweat and tears scurrying off to work each mourning earns less than a piece of metal dug out of the ground that sits around doing nothing? I thought inflation was supposed to be a tax on poors, but even rich private equity which gets ahead by sucking the blood out of Americans digging themselves out the grave can't save itself.

Re: I have made the decision to disband Hindenburg Research

#399

Post by Havoc »

Jimmc414 wrote: post #77

"just feeling like it" seems insufficient explanation for dismantling a successful organization rather than transitioning it they just completed their "pipeline of ideas" with "the last Ponzi cases" - seems like a surprisingly clean and abrupt end for an investigative organization the team members are "brilliant" and "family to me" but heis disbanding rather than transitioning leadership He mentions some team members…

>successful organization

Think this type of organization is a bit different. The very nature of their MO means it's only a matter of time before there is a big miss and you get sued into oblivion.

...so bowing out gracefully while ahead seems like a sound move

Re: I have made the decision to disband Hindenburg Research

#400

Post by Workaccount2 »

fckgw wrote: post #353
Workaccount2 wrote: post #341

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Just yesterday it was announced that Bitfinex will be returned the 95,000 bitcoin that were lost in a 2016 hack. These coins will be returned to the account holders which were affected by the hack. At the time the bitcoins were lost, they were worth ~$575 each. Today those returned tokens are worth close to $100,0000 each. I doubt anyone who was affected by that hack realized they just got involuntarily forced into t…

> These coins will be returned to the account holders which were affected by the hack. I haven't seen any reporting on that. Bitfinex, the corporate entity, is receiving the coins recovered from the feds. It's up to Bitfinex how they device to dole out those funds, if at all. When these things happen, often times exchanges will make their customers whole by giving back the monetary value of the coins at time of loss.…

https://support.bitfinex.com/hc/en-us/articles/115003282929-...

Apparently they created a token that entitles you to the lost bitcoin should they be recovered.

Post reply on HN