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Two undersea cables in Baltic Sea disrupted

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Re: Two undersea cables in Baltic Sea disrupted

#391

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> it still was far from insignificant Stil far from closing the gap between the 6th and 13th largest armies. Russia invaded an inferior force and got stymied. This would be like America's Vietnam being Cuba, where we fully committed the U.S. military and economy to the task and still continued to fail. The fact that Russia has never even established air superiority knocks it out of the category of running a modern mi…

At the moment, Russia has fully conquered (and integrated into their nation) 20% of the largest country in Europe. They seem intent on going for about 50% of it. US cannot claim a single victory in the past 4 decades, it's been debacle after debacle.

> US cannot claim a single victory in the past 4 decades, it's been debacle after debacle

Militarily? You've got to be joking. Russia is still struggling with the military part of the campaign.

Russia's "top of the line" weapons are routinely being potted by decades-old NATO kit. They are a spent force, conventionally. The military turned from a fighting force into a propaganda tool, aimed at projecting masculinity to a domestic audience over maintaining martial capability.

The problem in the West is there are a lot of Soviet-era talking heads who make money when Russia gets attention. There is no money to be made if Russia is a loser. So it's in the interest of that foreign policy wing to trump up Moscow as if it's a competent military versus the dumpster fire that it is without Pyongyang and Tehran.

Re: Two undersea cables in Baltic Sea disrupted

#392

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Their shadow oil fleet is operated by third parties and shell companies Would be a shame if they started having engine troubles in the middle of the ocean.

1. They already do, because those are old, garbage ships 2. It's not exactly in the interests of NATO to have those ships start spilling tons of oil in the North Atlantic The problem of that "shadow fleet" is precisely that those are old, uninsured vessels that cause environmental risks.

> not exactly in the interests of NATO to have those ships start spilling tons of oil in the North Atlantic

Since when did engine troubles cause an oil spill?

Re: Two undersea cables in Baltic Sea disrupted

#393

Earlier quoted context omitted.

And what about adding in the chances of a Russian spy ship seen relatively near by only a few days earlier: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/nov/16/russian-spy-sh...

Irish sea is relatively near to the Baltic sea?

According to Google it's 854nm.

The spy ship is alleged to be able to go 15 knots which means it could make the distance in 2.5 days.

https://ukdefencejournal.org.uk/russian-spy-ship-present-off...

Re: Two undersea cables in Baltic Sea disrupted

#394
post #253

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Well, to be fair, it's suspiciously close in time to the recent US/UK/France permission to use long-range missiles against the Russian territory. So it may be indeed a transparent hint towards them from Russia regarding how asymmetric response could look like.

And from a day or two ago: "Navy undersea cable showdown on Britain's doorstep: Warship forces Russian spy ship out of the Irish Sea after it was spotted over critical subsea cables - miles from UK coast" -- https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-14090489/russian-sp...

I would reccomend that you refine your media literacy and avoid Daily Mail, and coherts.

Re: Two undersea cables in Baltic Sea disrupted

#395
post #253

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Well, to be fair, it's suspiciously close in time to the recent US/UK/France permission to use long-range missiles against the Russian territory. So it may be indeed a transparent hint towards them from Russia regarding how asymmetric response could look like.

And from a day or two ago: "Navy undersea cable showdown on Britain's doorstep: Warship forces Russian spy ship out of the Irish Sea after it was spotted over critical subsea cables - miles from UK coast" -- https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-14090489/russian-sp...

But I appreciate the reference to a tabloid article...

Re: Two undersea cables in Baltic Sea disrupted

#396

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Its also been widely reported that when Trump first met Putin he said if he invaded Ukraine, he would turn Moscow and several other cities into a parking lot. Trump in several interviews has said he warned Putin not to do it, that he would pay a very, very heavy cost and he would see to it that he would. This is all Trump had to do. He was able to leverage the media's reporting on him that he was reckless, dangerous…

Surely you should be able to provide a source for the claim that Trump threatened Putin over Ukraine.

Here's the man himself claiming this in his inimitably eloquent style:

https://www.huffpost.com/entry/trump-putin-no-way-ukraine-mu...

"No way." "Way."

Re: Two undersea cables in Baltic Sea disrupted

#397
post #253

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Well, to be fair, it's suspiciously close in time to the recent US/UK/France permission to use long-range missiles against the Russian territory. So it may be indeed a transparent hint towards them from Russia regarding how asymmetric response could look like.

And from a day or two ago: "Navy undersea cable showdown on Britain's doorstep: Warship forces Russian spy ship out of the Irish Sea after it was spotted over critical subsea cables - miles from UK coast" -- https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-14090489/russian-sp...

Source, I was a diver in their north sea for some time. These expedition / treasure hunting vessels are common. They are definately operating as low key and under the radar as possible, for other reasons, but they aren't "spy ships'. There is no stealth ship that exists and can't be detected on the surface. The US military learned this the hard way with the Zumwalt Destroyers. If Russia is sabatoging undersea cables, as the daily mail suggests, they aren't doing it with "spy ships". Please get a hold of yourself and stop reading the daily mail.

Re: Two undersea cables in Baltic Sea disrupted

#398

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The "problem" of Western countries is that the political sphere operates under different moral compasses: like taking down a shadow fleet tanker would be a natural disaster... taking down many would mean many disasters. The real question is, should security and defense concerns be placed on hold? If our basic freedoms and rights are being attacked, how big of a deal would be a shadow fleet tanker catastrophe?

Western countries have intelligence services with sabotage departments and in general are not above blowing up things their leaders don't like. If the CIA or US Navy don't have the technical means to blow up the Crimea bridge with plausible deniability they haven't been paying attention.

Thry do but it only benefits Ukraine. So they're the ones who should blow it up, preferably with with weapons of their own in order to avoid NATO escalation. Just lke the Moskva sinking.

Re: Two undersea cables in Baltic Sea disrupted

#399
post #332
post #102

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"We" already screwed their pipeline, what's left? Provide Ukraine with the means to blow up the Kerch bridge maybe? They're the ones that could legitimately do that sort of escalation.

> "We" already screwed their pipeline unfortunately, "we" didnt have to pay a sacrifice to the economy for it, because germany paid it. The US is too afraid of nukes, and won't escalate. The russians rightly predicted this.

Germany was told to stop buying Russian gas financing the Russian war machine by the previous Trump administration. They were told to pledge 2% of their GDP for defense, contributing more to NATO. They didn't listen. This is what happened: Ukraine got invaded, the pipeline was blown up to ensure compliance, their defense spending reachd 2% this year, more two years too late in a worse economic climate. Next year, the next Trump administration is going to demand more, because 2% is already insufficient.

https://www.dw.com/en/germany-to-hit-nato-budget-goal-for-1s...

Re: Two undersea cables in Baltic Sea disrupted

#400

So what's the solution ? Assign a surveillance UAV to every Russian ship parked "without a good reason" over a cable ? It would be expensive, but doable, and create a reserve of vehicles for wartime use.

Maybe a saildrone, that seems feasible with today’s technology.
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