US probes Tesla's Full Self-Driving software after fatal crash

I drive a 2024 Tesla Model Y and another person in my family drives a 2021 Model Y. Both cars are substantially similar (the 2021 actually has more sensors than the 2024, which is strictly cameras-only).

Both cars are running 12.5 -- and I agree that it's dramatically improved over 12.3.

I really enjoy driving. I've got a #vanlife Sprinter that I'll do 14 hour roadtrips in with my kids. For me, the Tesla's self-driving capability is a "nice to have" -- it sometimes drives like a 16 year old who just got their license (especially around braking. Somehow it's really hard to nail the "soft brake at a stop sign" which seems like it should be be easy. I find that passengers in the car are most uncomfortable when the car brakes like this -- and I'm the most embarrassed because they all look at me like I completely forgot how to do a smooth stop at a stop sign).

Other times, the Tesla's self-driving is magical and nearly flawless -- especially on long highway road trips, like up to Tahoe. Even someone like me who loves doing road trips really appreciates the ability to relax and not have to be driving.

But here's one observation I've had that I don't see quite sufficiently represented in the comments:

The other person in my family with the 2021 Model Y does not like to drive like I do, and they really appreciate that the Tesla is a better driver than they feel themselves to be. And as a passenger in their car, I also really appreciate that when the Tesla is driving, I generally feel much more comfortable in the car. Not always, but often.

There's so much variance in us as humans around driving skills and enjoyment. It's easy to lump us together and say "the car isn't as good as the human." And I know there's conflicting data from Tesla and NHTSA about whether in aggregate, Teslas are safer than human drivers or not.

But what I definitely know from my experience is that the Tesla is already a better driver than many humans are -- especially those that don't enjoy driving. And as @modeless points out, the rate of improvement is now vastly accelerating.

If I had a dime for every hackernews who commented that FSD version X was like a revelation compared to FSD version X-ε I'd have like thirty bucks. I will grant you that every release has surprisingly different behaviors.

Here's an unintentionally hilarious meta-post on the subject https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=29531915

> Except that we know that it doesn't work like that. Train drivers are ridden with extreme guilt every time "their" train runs over someone, even though they know that logically there was absolutely nothing they could have done to prevent it. Don't see why it would be any different here.

It's not binary. Someone dying -- even with no involvement -- can be traumatic. I've been in a position where I could have taken actions to prevent someone from being harmed. Rationally not my fault, but in retrospect, I can describe the exact set of steps needed to prevent it. I feel guilty about it, even though I know rationally it's not my fault (there's no way I could have known ahead of time).

However, it's a manageable guilt. I don't think it would be if I knew rationally that it was my fault.

> So no, market doesn't "work everything out".

Whether or not a market works things out depends on issues like transparency and information. Parties will offload costs wherever possible. In the model you gave, there is no direct cost to a car maker making less safe cars or vice-versa. It assumes the car buyer will even look at insurance premiums, and a whole chain of events beyond that.

That's different if it's the same party making cars, paying money, and doing so at scale.

If Tesla pays for everyone damaged in any accident a Tesla car has, then Tesla has a very, very strong incentive to make safe cars to whatever optimum is set by the damages. Scales are big enough -- millions of cars and billions of dollars -- where Tesla can afford to hire actuaries and a team of analysts to make sure they're at the optimum.

As an individual car buyer, I have no chance of doing that.

Ergo, in one case, the market will work it out. In the other, it won't.

Sure, plenty of people have been saying it's great for a long time, when it clearly was not (looking at you, Whole Mars Catalog). I was not saying it was super great back then. I have consistently been critical of Elon for promising human level self driving "next year" for like 10 years in a row and being wrong every time. He said it this year again and I still think he's wrong.

But the rate of progress I see right now has me thinking that it may not be more than two or three years before that threshold is finally reached.

Can you point to some online documentation that recommends changing lanes in preference to speeding up when a person is merging at too slow a speed? What I'm doing is following CHP guidance in this post: https://www.facebook.com/chpmarin/posts/lets-talk-about-merg... """Finally, if you are the vehicle already traveling in the slow lane, show some common courtesy and do what you can to create a space for the person by slowing down a bit or speeding up if it is safer. """

(you probably misinterpreted what I said. I do sometimes change lanes, even well in advance of a merge I know is prone to problems, if that's the safest and most convenient. What I am saying is the guidance I have read indicates that staying in the same lane is generally safer than changing lanes, and speeding up into an empty space is better for everybody than slowing down, especially because many people who are merging will keep slowing down more and more when the highway driver slows for them)