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Why the 2% inflation target? (2023)

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Re: Why the 2% inflation target? (2023)

#391
post #5

Yellen supposedly told Greenspan & co in the mid 90s that 2% was a good way for companies to be able to adjust labor costs down if needed (if you don't give someone a raise when inflation is 2%, you're effectively lowering their salary). It was the only way to have some flexibility there. If you admit that this is a desirable thing, this is defeated by wage negotiations (or say, benefits) than tend to be indexed to i…

>2% was a good way for companies to be able to adjust labor costs down if needed (if you don't give someone a raise when inflation is 2%, you're effectively lowering their salary) This is EXACTLY the issue. The economy is rigged such that in the absence of any positive action, workers' purchasing power goes down over time by default. This obviously isn't a problem for the rich, whose money is stored almost entirely i…

I hate to break it to you, but the rich are taxed on nominal gains, not real.

Holding assets during inflationary periods means paying a higher percentage of your real gains as taxes.

Re: Why the 2% inflation target? (2023)

#392
post #5

Yellen supposedly told Greenspan & co in the mid 90s that 2% was a good way for companies to be able to adjust labor costs down if needed (if you don't give someone a raise when inflation is 2%, you're effectively lowering their salary). It was the only way to have some flexibility there. If you admit that this is a desirable thing, this is defeated by wage negotiations (or say, benefits) than tend to be indexed to i…

>2% was a good way for companies to be able to adjust labor costs down if needed (if you don't give someone a raise when inflation is 2%, you're effectively lowering their salary) This is EXACTLY the issue. The economy is rigged such that in the absence of any positive action, workers' purchasing power goes down over time by default. This obviously isn't a problem for the rich, whose money is stored almost entirely i…

> The economy is rigged such that in the absence of any positive action, workers' purchasing power goes down over time by default.

In Belgium, nearly all wages and salaries are "indexed" automatically in order to avoid social unrest [0]. If the government notices that prices of an index of goods have increased with 2% or more since the last increase, all wages, benefits and rents go up with the same number. The exact details could fill whole books though.

Indeed, if it weren't for such a mechanism, you would need to see strikes way too regularly in order to fix the runaway inflation against fixed wages (which is bad for productivity, which causes even more inflation).

It creates a setting where most people (who don't understand inflation anyway) don't need to care about inflation too much either. In fact, I have found most Belgians react incredulous when you point out it's pretty much the only country that handles inflation this way.

[0] https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Consumer_price_index_(Belgiu...

Re: Why the 2% inflation target? (2023)

#393
post #221
post #208

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> So what do you use that's better? If the government would stop trying to micromanage the economy, then it wouldn't need to find some aggregate statistic to use, no matter how misleading or counterproductive it was.

We've done that before... the boom bust cycles were far worse.

Yep, societies just don't function until you establish a central bank with fiat currency and fractional reserve banking. It's a law of human nature.

Re: Why the 2% inflation target? (2023)

#394

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Implying it's some sort of a "hard currency" or can be used to compare prices of goods/services/housing over long periods of time is just absurd. It goes up and down, but it's the most stable denomination of value that exists. Yes?

As measured by what? Volatility? Absolutely not.

Relatively constant demand, and difficult to increase supply.

Re: Why the 2% inflation target? (2023)

#395
post #380

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You’re missing the ‘if needed’. The idea is not that wages will permanently lag inflation, we can see from the figures that this has not been the case. Workers know what the inflation rate is and what it means when they negotiate wages. It’s that if there is an economic downturn employers can mitigate some of the impact by freezing wages instead of having to sack employees (or as many, anyway). If needed. This is als…

Hasn’t it been the case? Most people make the same or less than 50 years ago, except the upper class, which has captured almost everything

I’m not arguing there isn’t increased inequality at all. There is. But it’s not due to the 2% inflation target. It’s mostly down to the high returns on investments.

Re: Why the 2% inflation target? (2023)

#396
post #191

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What happens when one gets laid off, disabled, changes careers, or faces some other circumstances that cause incomes to fall below what’s needed to service debt payments? That’s why living below one’s means and saving the rest is prudent. Unfortunately high inflation penalizes savers by eroding the purchasing power of savings, and it forces all workers on a treadmill where it seems that the cost of living rises faste…

"Paradox of thrift". Economic version of losing weight by cutting off your toes.

Even if it's good for GDP to have everyone spending every penny, it's not good for you.

Re: Why the 2% inflation target? (2023)

#397

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> punishes hoarding Or put another way, punishes saving. Forcing people to "save" by loaning the money to businesses and governments bonds and equities is good for politicians who like to be measured by economic metrics. But it's bad for being able to actually save for the future, and reducing dependencies on banks, leading to the moral hazard (with 0% inflation you could have narrow banking without problems).

It's not good for a society to save by holding on to worthless pieces of paper or shiny objects. It's good for society to save by investing in productive assets.

It's not good for society that ordinary people have to speculate their hard earned money just to keep it for retirement.

Re: Why the 2% inflation target? (2023)

#399
post #367

Inflation is a tax, since almost no government will raise taxes, inflation is a way to raise revenue without calling it a tax.

Inflation does not spare Government budgets. Just look at how inflation cuts into the DoD budget. ...inflation is a way to raise revenue without calling it a tax. Wow, European governments must've made a killing off of energy inflation over the last few years. Hopefully OPEC decides on another embargo, it'd pair perfectly with a Panamanian banana virus. The resulting inflation would certainly fill EU coffers to the b…

The comment is referring to playing loose with the currency, not a drop in supply or an increase in demand.

Re: Why the 2% inflation target? (2023)

#400
post #84

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> if you're a worker, and you aren't saving (or trying to save) a pile of cash, inflation is net-zero for you But people should be able to save. So that they can buy a house or apartment for themselves and their family. Without having to take up a loan to do so.

If you want to buy a house or apartment, you're probably looking at at least several hundred thousand dollars, and average working class people would need years to save that much. In other words, we're looking at someone with a few hundred thousand dollars, held for a few years. At which point, what's stopping them from keeping the money in an index fund, instead of under the proverbial mattress? Also, taking a mortg…

> what's stopping them from keeping the money in an index fund

Risk of principal loss.

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