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The Techno-Optimist Manifesto

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Re: The Techno-Optimist Manifesto

#391
post #390

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Maybe you missed my original point: I agree with the argument for the most part. My position has been validated in actual reality. The mainstream reporting -- that is, the reporting that the people who need convincing actually read -- has not been positive. I would bet this has pushed far, far more people away from techno-optimism than towards it. If you were a pessimist already, this confirms and amplifies all of yo…

You're citing biased samples, like how on HN itself: - A disproportionate number of direct-replies to almost any opiniated submission are negative. (If you agree, an upvote is often enough! It's the objectors/nitpickers who are loudest in the comments – even if unrepresentative.) - Often, also, it's sullen/underemployed people who have the most time to comment. I disagree that the "mainstream reporting" represents "t…

Kagi results are biased? I mean... I guess.

You got it pal, hope all those people are feeling rah-rah!

Re: The Techno-Optimist Manifesto

#392
post #293
post #148

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Free markets are naturally resistant through free competition That's circular logic. Free markets are defined as those in which competition happens. Unregulated markets often tend towards cartelization and monopoly. > and, you know, laws. Which need to be enforced by governments. > Point me to a resistant monopoly or cartel and I will show you a government granted/supported one. The whole robber baron era is a coun…

Nobody said anything about not having governments. Rule of Law is required for societies to even exist. Read some more on the robber baron era - you'll find out Standard Oil was already losing to competition before government action. For another great example how the free market broke a cartel, read up on how Dow Chemical fought the German bromine cartel: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Herbert_Henry_Dow#Breaking_a_m..…

> Nobody said anything about not having governments.

That's very clearly where you're going with this though.

> Point me to a resistant monopoly or cartel and I will show you a government granted/supported one.

Re: The Techno-Optimist Manifesto

#393

Earlier quoted context omitted.

As many have pointed out, technological advancement is pointless without social advancement. We have learnt how to treat diseases 10 times over at this point, and yet people still live with them. That is a failure at engineering our social system. Social change is the decisive factor. Technological change without social change is just giving the rich new ways to subjugate or ignore the poor.

This is total bullshit. Rich or poor, infant mortality rate and maternal mortality rate have plunged. The rich do better than the poor, but you're not losing your firstborn to cholera and shit. We have antibiotics and post-natal care. Shit is good now. Forget 200 years ago like the OP said. Try just 1900: 9 out of every 1000 live births resulted in mum dying. Today? In the bottom quartile in my state of California? 1…

A completely fictional narrative that for some reason is uncritically accepted by so many.

Re: The Techno-Optimist Manifesto

#394
post #312
post #252

This was strange and disappointing thing to read. Why such a conspiratorial tone ("we are being lied to", "we have enemies", etc.)? Since this is written by Marc Andreessen, I did a search for "crypto" and "web 3", but no results came up. Isn't that strange coming from someone who was so prominent in promoting and advocating for a crypto-based future? I guess that one didn't pan out… "Our enemy is the ivory tower" is…

The Patron Saints section is where the truth is laid bare because it contains Filippo Tommaso Marinetti. He was quite in the business of writing Manifestos. Check which one he co-authored in 1919.

I never read (or studied in class) the fascist manifesto, your comment inspired me to look it up. The Wikipedia summary is a hoot: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fascist_Manifesto

Politically, the Manifesto calls for: * Universal suffrage with a lowered voting age to 18 years, and voting and electoral office eligibility for all ages 25 and up; * Proportional representation on a regional basis; * Voting for women; * Representation at government level of newly created national councils by economic sector; * The abolition of the Italian Senate (at the time, the Senate, as the upper house of parliament, was by process elected by the wealthier citizens, but were in reality direct appointments by the king. It has been described as a sort of extended council of the crown); * The formation of a national council of experts for labor, for industry, for transportation, for the public health, for communications, etc. Selections to be made of professionals or of tradesmen with legislative powers, and elected directly to a general commission with ministerial powers.

In labor and social policy, the Manifesto calls for: * The quick enactment of a law of the state that sanctions an eight-hour workday for all workers; * A minimum wage; * The participation of workers' representatives in the functions of industry commissions; * To show the same confidence in the labor unions (that prove to be technically and morally worthy) as is given to industry executives or public servants; * Reorganization of the railways and the public transport sector; * Revision of the draft law on invalidity insurance; * Reduction of the retirement age from 65 to 55.

In military affairs, the Manifesto advocates:

Creation of a short-service national militia with specifically defensive responsibilities; Armaments factories are to be nationalized; A peaceful but competitive foreign policy.

In finance, the Manifesto advocates:

* A strong extraordinary tax on capital of a progressive nature, which takes the form of true partial expropriation of all wealth; * The seizure of all the possessions of the religious congregations and the abolition of all the bishoprics, which constitute an enormous liability on the Nation and on the privileges of the poor; * Revision of all contracts for military provisions; * The revision of all military contracts and the seizure of 85 percent of the profits therein.

Re: The Techno-Optimist Manifesto

#395

I agree with the overall thrust of this, or should be easy to convince, but boy does this lack of self-awareness just shout “distance yourself and run, don’t walk!” > Our enemy is the ivory tower, the know-it-all credentialed expert worldview, indulging in abstract theories, luxury beliefs, social engineering, disconnected from the real world, delusional, unelected, and unaccountable – playing God with everyone else’…

The piece is a view from the know-it-all UN-credentialed expert worldview, indulging in abstract theories, luxury beliefs, social engineering, disconnected from the real world, delusional, unelected, and unaccountable – playing God with everyone else’s lives, with total insulation from the consequences.

Re: The Techno-Optimist Manifesto

#396
At the end of the day, technology does little to nothing. It's the people who use it for good or ill, and the people who organize economic, political and other social systems to capture markets, enhance or suppress wages, create or remove regulation, compete or stifle competition. This essay doesn't really address the people side, just that "we" (he and some others) believe that tech is enough.

This is so ignorant: > We are told that technology takes our jobs, reduces our wages, increases inequality, threatens our health, ruins the environment, degrades our society, corrupts our children, impairs our humanity, threatens our future, and is ever on the verge of ruining everything.

PFOAs are tech. Unexploded cluster bomblets are tech. Fracking fluids are tech. Plastics in the guts of ocean life are tech. Ransomware and doxxing trucks are tech. There's a lot of tech that pmarca wishes would be far away from his gated home.

Then there are dental anesthetics, Polartec, electric cars, power tools, elevators, and snowplows. Lots of tech does good. No one complains much about power tools or elevators.

Minority viewpoints are set up as a strawman. A piece like this should be more thoughtful to be taken seriously.

Re: The Techno-Optimist Manifesto

#397
post #312

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The Patron Saints section is where the truth is laid bare because it contains Filippo Tommaso Marinetti. He was quite in the business of writing Manifestos. Check which one he co-authored in 1919.

I never read (or studied in class) the fascist manifesto, your comment inspired me to look it up. The Wikipedia summary is a hoot: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fascist_Manifesto Politically, the Manifesto calls for: * Universal suffrage with a lowered voting age to 18 years, and voting and electoral office eligibility for all ages 25 and up; * Proportional representation on a regional basis; * Voting for women; * Re…

After Wikipedia has been caught to be influenced by the Polish, Hungarian and Croatian far right -- and you bet there are more -- I would be very slow to trust a summary of that manifest from it. It's one of those topics where a little omission here and there can make quite a difference and you don't even need to insert a lie into Wikipedia. Not that's hard, just put down an obscure book as a source, no one checks whether your quote is in it.

Re: The Techno-Optimist Manifesto

#398
post #392
post #293

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Nobody said anything about not having governments. Rule of Law is required for societies to even exist. Read some more on the robber baron era - you'll find out Standard Oil was already losing to competition before government action. For another great example how the free market broke a cartel, read up on how Dow Chemical fought the German bromine cartel: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Herbert_Henry_Dow#Breaking_a_m..…

> Nobody said anything about not having governments. That's very clearly where you're going with this though. > Point me to a resistant monopoly or cartel and I will show you a government granted/supported one.

Please don't put words in my mouth. Government's role in a free market economy is quite essential: upholding rule of law (specifically contract law) and taxing externalities. Overreach is the problem though (like regulating the charging port on my damn phone).

Re: The Techno-Optimist Manifesto

#399
post #294

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> who then manipulates pricing to prevent competition How exactly? Reducing profits defeats the purpose of becoming a monopoly, while any sliver of profit is the startup's opportunity. To create a monopoly you need to restrict competition some other way, like through governmental regulation.

> Reducing profits defeats the purpose of becoming a monopoly, while any sliver of profit is the startup's opportunity. Only if you ignore the concept of loss leaders, or the very act of competing in the market itself by undercutting competitors' prices. Companies are very happy to receive less money in the short term in exchange for guaranteed recurring revenue in the long term, it's only rational after all, and app…

Loss leaders, price dumping and price wars are as old as the world and free markets are perfectly capable to deal with them. Here's how how Dow Chemical fought the German bromine cartel's price dumping at the beginning of the last century:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Herbert_Henry_Dow#Breaking_a_m...

No government intervention necessary.

Re: The Techno-Optimist Manifesto

#400
post #397

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I never read (or studied in class) the fascist manifesto, your comment inspired me to look it up. The Wikipedia summary is a hoot: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fascist_Manifesto Politically, the Manifesto calls for: * Universal suffrage with a lowered voting age to 18 years, and voting and electoral office eligibility for all ages 25 and up; * Proportional representation on a regional basis; * Voting for women; * Re…

After Wikipedia has been caught to be influenced by the Polish, Hungarian and Croatian far right -- and you bet there are more -- I would be very slow to trust a summary of that manifest from it. It's one of those topics where a little omission here and there can make quite a difference and you don't even need to insert a lie into Wikipedia. Not that's hard, just put down an obscure book as a source, no one checks wh…

Your comment primed me for some wikipedia shenanigans, but when I looked up and translated the 1919 original, it’s more or less exactly the same as the Wikipedia summary.

http://web.tiscalinet.it/regno76/testi/manifesti/Il%20manife...

Thanks for prodding me to go down that rabbit hole.

Seems like Marinetti didn’t foresee how horrible the “industry councils” would be.

The nationalized military industrial complex could or could not be a good idea.

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