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Anthropic’s $5B, 4-year plan to take on OpenAI

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Re: Anthropic’s $5B, 4-year plan to take on OpenAI

#391

Post by adamsmith143 »

dpflan wrote: post #110
rebolek wrote: post #84

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There may have been a disagreement, but now they're focused on profit, as everybody else. From the same article: “Anthropic has been heavily focused on research for the first year and a half of its existence, but we have been convinced of the necessity of commercialization, which we fully committed to in September [2022],” the pitch deck reads. “We’ve developed a strategy for go-to-market and initial product speciali…

This is hilarious to me, in that the disgruntled departure just did a 180… how long until the next disgruntled spin-out for higher reasons chases the dollar too…

To be fair I think he had the same realization that they had at OpenAI. Sam Altman has gone on the record saying it's basically impossible to raise significant amounts of money as a pure nonprofit and you aren't going to train cutting edge foundation models without a lot of cash. Anthropic is saying they literally need to spend $1B over 18 months to train their next Claude version.

Re: Anthropic’s $5B, 4-year plan to take on OpenAI

#392

Post by ethbr0 »

ttul wrote: post #160
ethbr0 wrote: post #108

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is a repeat of the early GPU era. It's not the software or hardware that will "win" the race, it's who delivers the packaged end user capability (or centralizes and grabs most of the value along the chain). And end user capability is comprised of hardware + software + connectivity + standardized APIs for building software on top + integration into existing systems. If I were Nvidia, I'd be smiling. They've been…

Nvidia: just as the sun starts setting on crypto mining, the foundation model boom begins. And in the background of it all, gaming grows without end.

If you've got a choice, sail your ship on a rising tide! And if you can spread the risk over multiple rising tides, so much the better!

My dad told me a quip once: "It's amazing how much luckier well prepared people are."

Re: Anthropic’s $5B, 4-year plan to take on OpenAI

#393

Post by adamsmith143 »

SilverBirch wrote: post #126

Does anyone else see the "In X years time we'll have something Y times better than the competition has today" as a bit of a red flag? I saw this before in a product plan and it flagged up 2 things that really worried me. Firstly, the competition were already ahead of us, and they're obviously going to continue developing their stuff, so it's great to promise our thing will be better than their thing today but we're n…

With the recent scaling law papers that have come out you can evidently predict with pretty high accuracy how good your model will be by plotting out the scaling curves. So performance @ X Flops and Y tokens can be reasonably well known ahead of time.

Re: Anthropic’s $5B, 4-year plan to take on OpenAI

#394

Post by adamsmith143 »

bob1029 wrote: post #162
SilverBirch wrote: post #126

Does anyone else see the "In X years time we'll have something Y times better than the competition has today" as a bit of a red flag? I saw this before in a product plan and it flagged up 2 things that really worried me. Firstly, the competition were already ahead of us, and they're obviously going to continue developing their stuff, so it's great to promise our thing will be better than their thing today but we're n…

The only reality in which Anthropic will take on OpenAI (et. al.), would be if someone involved possess some sacred knowledge regarding how to build an AGI system that is radically off the path that the current market is charging down (i.e. ever-larger GPU farms and transformer-style models). I suspect this is not the case. The same hustlers who brought you crypto scams didn't just disappear into the ether. All of th…

>The only reality in which Anthropic will take on OpenAI (et. al.), would be if someone involved possess some sacred knowledge regarding how to build an AGI system that is radically off the path that the current market is charging down (i.e. ever-larger GPU farms and transformer-style models).

Train on More tokens with More GPUs isn't exactly rocket science. I assume the RLHF loop is complex but training the base model itself is pretty well understood.

Re: Anthropic’s $5B, 4-year plan to take on OpenAI

#395

Post by matthewdgreen »

mike_hearn wrote: post #313
anentropic wrote: post #288

If Apple would wake up to what's happening with llama.cpp etc then I don't see such a market in paying for remote access to big models via API, though it's currently the only game in town. Currently a Macbook has a Neural Engine that is sitting idle 99% of the time and only suitable for running limited models (poorly documented, opaque rules about what ops can be accelerated, a black box compiler [1] and an apparent…

If I were Apple I'd be thinking about the following issues with that strategy: 1. That RAM isn't empty, it's being used by apps and the OS. Fill up 64GB of RAM with an LLM and there's nothing left for anything else. 2. 64GB probably isn't enough for competitive LLMs anyway. 3. Inferencing is extremely energy intensive, but the MacBook / Apple Silicon brand is partly about long battery life. 4. Weights are expensive t…

How much does 64GB of RAM cost, anyway? Retail it's like $200, and I'm sure it's cheaper in terms of Apple cost. Yet we treat it as an absurd luxury because Apple makes you buy the top-end 16" Macbook and pay an extra $800 beyond that. Maybe in the future they'll treat RAM as a requirement and not a luxury good.

Re: Anthropic’s $5B, 4-year plan to take on OpenAI

#396

Post by ethbr0 »

wongarsu wrote: post #117
ethbr0 wrote: post #77

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The real limiting factor of AGI is not going to be AGI -- it's going to be everything else. Digitization of the last mile (instrumentation, feedback), local networking, local compute, business familiarity with technology, standardized processes, regulatory environment, etc. AGI will happen when it happens. But if it happens and an economy doesn't have all the enabling prerequisites, it's not going to have time to dev…

> AGI + developing economies I wouldn't be so sure about that because of the Region Beta paradox. Developed countries have processes that work, making all of them digital and connected is often a bigger uphill battle than starting from zero and doing it right the first time. See also communication infrastructure in developing economies. It's often much easier to get good internet connection (in reasonably populated a…

Fair point!

On the one hand, I'd say developed countries are much farther along in digitizing (as part of efficiency optimization) their processes. Mostly by virtue that their companies are essentially management/orchestration processes on top of subcontracted manufacturing.

On the other hand, it gives developing countries an opportunity to skip the legacy step and go right to the state of the art.

I'm still skeptical the latter will dominate though.

I'd assume most of the developing world is still operating "good enough to work" processes, which are largely manual. Digitizing those processes will be a nightmare, because it plays out on organizational-political timespans.

Re: Anthropic’s $5B, 4-year plan to take on OpenAI

#397

Post by worik »

cubefox wrote: post #187
andsoitis wrote: post #150

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> switch to something more modern such as?

I would be very surprised if something based on Blockchain or similar software doesn't offer a solution here. Another route would be to establish a protocol for near instantaneous bank transfers, and try to get a lot of banks on board. The immediacy of transfers seems to be the main reason why companies use credit card services, not buyer protection or actual credit.

How long does it take before someone says "Blockchain"

Still faith in magic on HN

Re: Anthropic’s $5B, 4-year plan to take on OpenAI

#398

Post by worik »

boeingUH60 wrote: post #79
xena wrote: post #40

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The main reason why companies don't allow NSFW content is because of puritan payment processors that see that stuff and then go absolute sicko mode and lock people out of the traditional finance system.

It's because NSFW content has higher risks of chargeback and fraud (there's a reason their payment processors charge 20%+). Besides, companies don't want to be on the bad side of outrage; it only takes one mistake of processing a payment for child pornography and your name will be plastered everywhere as a child porn enabler. Do you really think the execs at Visa and Mastercard are puritans and not profiteering capit…

> Do you really think the execs at Visa and Mastercard are puritans and not profiteering capitalists...?

Yes, "and"

Re: Anthropic’s $5B, 4-year plan to take on OpenAI

#399

Post by psychlops »

mschild wrote: post #265
psychlops wrote: post #234

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Authoritarian solutions are very attractive today.

Reasonably regulating payment processors is far from authoritarian. If you are on a scale like Visa and MasterCard you're not just any private company anymore. Just those 2 companies control well over 75% of the US market alone. Not having access to a debit/credit card today will effectively block you from taking part in many aspects of modern life. It's absolutely reasonable to place stipulations on what they can an…

I don't disagree with your objective, it's the path you are taking to get there. Legislating obedience is authoritarian and is solution that many people love due to its simplicity.

Regulators love working with large businesses like your card duopoly, I don't think you will see much improvement.

Re: Anthropic’s $5B, 4-year plan to take on OpenAI

#400

Post by addisonl »

xena wrote: post #40
alexb_ wrote: post #35

If someone released a chatGPT/characterAI with NSFW content enabled it would eat into a big share of their users (and for characterAI, maybe take all of them). Seriously, look into what people are posting about when it comes to characterAI, and it's 80% "here's how to get around NSFW filters". Unsure why nobody is taking this very very obvious hole in AI tech.

The main reason why companies don't allow NSFW content is because of puritan payment processors that see that stuff and then go absolute sicko mode and lock people out of the traditional finance system.

I don’t buy this, if this was the reason then paid porn couldn’t exist, and we know that’s not the case.
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