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Europe is in danger of rolling electricity shortages

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Re: Europe is in danger of rolling electricity shortages

#391

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think you're mixing things here. The western world, the part of the world that bet on renewables, has reduced their dependency on coal. For the rest of the world that is not the case. It's very easy and fast to build a coal plant and pretty much every country has access to the raw material (independency). For the most part you don't need a specialized workforce either, which you do need for nuclear. It's also not i…

I don't think I'm mixing things up, I think you are. Coal extraction in the western world is making huge amounts of money and scaling up production, exactly the opposite of what the naysayers were incessantly parroting. Coal is no different than wind and solar in terms of accessibility of plant or product. Actually renewables are significantly easier to acquire and scale and deploy in many cases -- millions of people…

[deleted]

Re: Europe is in danger of rolling electricity shortages

#392

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think you're mixing things here. The western world, the part of the world that bet on renewables, has reduced their dependency on coal. For the rest of the world that is not the case. It's very easy and fast to build a coal plant and pretty much every country has access to the raw material (independency). For the most part you don't need a specialized workforce either, which you do need for nuclear. It's also not i…

I don't think I'm mixing things up, I think you are. Coal extraction in the western world is making huge amounts of money and scaling up production, exactly the opposite of what the naysayers were incessantly parroting. Coal is no different than wind and solar in terms of accessibility of plant or product. Actually renewables are significantly easier to acquire and scale and deploy in many cases -- millions of people…

https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/statistics-explained/index.php...

https://www.ceicdata.com/en/indicator/united-states/coal-pro...

https://www.statista.com/statistics/184333/coal-energy-consu...

https://www.worldometers.info/coal/australia-coal/ Australia has consumption going down but production going up, they're selling to China and India.

I hope this clears up your confusion.

> Actually renewables are significantly easier to acquire and scale and deploy in many cases -- millions of people have solar panels on their houses for example. Private, as well as municipal or county level installations are common. As are much larger ones.

You missed my point. You need a lot less materials for the same amount of power in a coal plant and digging for coal is easier to scale up.

Re: Europe is in danger of rolling electricity shortages

#393
post #27
post #21

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I wonder if it is cost effective going forward to install two meters and panels on every house with one being “essential” and the other being “intermittent” so the power company has the option of blacking out the intermittent boxes only. I’d rather have all my computers, lights, etc shut down than my whole house.

Firstly, how would you keep consumers honest about what’s essential? Secondly, I think “essential” will depend on the duration of the blackout. For a blackout of a few hours, keeping WiFi running so that work from home can continue probably is more essential than heating a water boiler. If the blackout takes a few days, that may change.

Just cap the electricity output and let consumers decide for themselves to what to turn on. Turning on too much will flip the breaker. They’ll figure it out for themselves.

Re: Europe is in danger of rolling electricity shortages

#394

Here is what Switzerland is doing at the moment to prevent the worst case which would be rolling black outs. They are planning for the worst case so they don't get caught with their pants down. This includes: - Currently trying to fill as many reservoirs as possible - Securing gas in foreign reservoirs. - Plan for emergency gas plants that can be operational by January/February, the time Switzerland has the least ele…

Before we all congratulate Switzerland on their great planning, here is a counter-point article from 3 days ago painting a very different picture.

The link to the article in question: https://www.lemonde.fr/international/article/2022/09/23/en-s...

With a copy of the text (in French) as it's behind a paywall. Deepl should do a decent enough job to translate it to English.

INTERNATIONAL

En Suisse, l’angoisse énergétique tourne à la crise de nerfs Dépendant de ses voisins allemand et français pour assurer une partie de son approvisionnement électrique en hiver, le petit pays alpin découvre, mais un peu tard, qu’il n’a pas assez investi dans les énergies renouvelables. Par Serge Enderlin (Genève, correspondance)

LETTRE DE GENÈVE

Felix Suhner est le patron de l’hôtel-restaurant Bad Bubendorf dans la localité homonyme, un village à une vingtaine de kilomètres au sud de Bâle. De lui, on peut dire qu’il a à la fois la tête sur les épaules et pas froid aux yeux. Depuis la semaine dernière, il n’ajoute rien moins que 5 % à toutes les additions. Le motif ? Une « contribution aux frais d’énergie », en forte augmentation dans la Confédération suisse comme partout ailleurs en Europe.

Dans un pays où il n’est pas rare qu’un simple café coûte près de 5 euros dans des endroits parfaitement anodins, cette hausse inédite n’est pas passée inaperçue. Conscient de la moue de ses clients, Felix Suhner plaide la transparence : « J’indique clairement et systématiquement cette charge séparément sur chaque quittance. Sans cela, je ne pourrais pas rester rentable. » L’association suisse des restaurateurs, GastroSuisse, a pris une position très helvétique : elle n’encourage pas la démarche, mais ne la condamne pas non plus. L’anecdote est en tout cas révélatrice du climat délétère qui s’est installé en Suisse depuis deux mois, où la peur de manquer d’énergie tourne à l’obsession.

Lenteurs helvétiques Le pays alpin pourrait en effet vivre cet hiver ses premières coupures de courant depuis la seconde guerre mondiale. Une perspective qui crispe la classe politique et le gouvernement fédéral, contraint d’affronter une seconde crise majeure après celle liée au Covid-19 au cours de laquelle il n’avait guère brillé. « Quand la pandémie a surgi, l’Office fédéral de la santé [le ministère] fut d’abord incapable d’estimer le nombre de cas : les données, tardives et incomplètes, étaient parfois communiquées… par fax. Rebelote avec la crise électrique annoncée : le gestionnaire du réseau, Swissgrid, publie les chiffres de consommation globale avec plusieurs mois de décalage ! », dénonce un éditorialiste.

De fait, il est impossible pour les ménages et les entreprises suisses de connaître avec précision leur consommation de courant en temps réel. Pour cela, il aurait fallu pouvoir compter sur des compteurs intelligents, type Linky, mais « la Suisse, véritable tiers-monde numérique, ne les a pas installés ». La Confédération ne connaît donc pas la consommation d’électricité en juin dernier en Suisse ; elle ne dispose de données fiables que jusqu’en mai. Or, ce n’est que sur la base de chiffres actuels que l’on peut décider si les efforts d’économies entrepris sont suffisants ou si des restrictions, des interdictions ou, dans le pire des cas, des contingentements sont nécessaires. La situation est encore pire pour la consommation de gaz : Berne ne reçoit les données qu’une fois par an.

« S’il fait froid cet hiver, ce sera très serré », a confirmé, mercredi 21 septembre, Bastian Schwark dans le Neue Zürcher Zeitung. L’homme a été nommé manageur de la crise énergétique par la Confédération. Et que fait le gouvernement pour anticiper la pénurie annoncée ? Comme durant la pandémie, il met sur pied une task force, dont le rôle consistera d’abord à consulter les cantons, fédéralisme oblige. Ce mécanisme hautement démocratique, qui est l’une des forces de la Suisse (où citoyens et collectivités publiques sont écoutés en permanence), devient un lourd handicap quand les nuages s’amoncellent et qu’il faut réagir vite. La Suisse, dit le proverbe, n’est pas taillée pour le gros temps.

Comment en est-on arrivé là dans un pays dont les deux tiers du territoire sont recouverts de montagnes, qui abritent plusieurs dizaines de gros barrages et des réseaux d’adduction d’eau vertigineux pour alimenter les lacs de retenue en altitude ?

D’abord, l’hydroélectricité ne couvre que la moitié des besoins. Ensuite, la Suisse ne compte plus qu’une poignée de réacteurs nucléaires depuis qu’elle a décidé de quitter l’atome au lendemain de l’accident de Fukushima, en 2011 – même s’il est désormais question, comme en Allemagne, de « sortir de la sortie du nucléaire ». Enfin, elle n’a jamais su, ou pu, prendre le virage des énergies renouvelables, notamment en raison du droit d’opposition des citoyens, favorisé par la démocratie directe. A titre de comparaison, on ne dénombre qu’une quarantaine d’éoliennes sur le territoire suisse contre près de 3 000 en Autriche, pays à la topographie et à la population presque identiques.

Pour pallier ces déficiences, Berne avait toujours pu compter sur ses voisins français et allemand en important de l’électricité pendant la saison froide et les pics de consommation. Les centrales nucléaires de l’Hexagone, les dizaines de milliers d’éoliennes et les centrales à gaz allemandes fournissaient en courant excédentaire ce qui faisait défaut dans la production suisse. Mais, pour la première fois, il n’est pas certain que la France et l’Allemagne disposent d’excédents ces prochains mois. Côté français, le parc nucléaire est en difficulté. Et côté allemand, l’incertitude sur les livraisons du russe Gazprom annonce une saison froide, où toutes les capacités disponibles seront réservées en priorité à la consommation nationale.

Pour préparer la population suisse à l’hiver de tous les dangers, le Conseil fédéral s’en remettra, comme souvent, au bon sens de ses citoyens. Qui devront économiser l’énergie, quitte à être infantilisés. Fin août, le gouvernement a lancé une grande campagne de communication à 10 millions de francs suisses (10,5 millions d’euros). Pleines pages d’annonces dans la presse nationale, affiches dans les rues, numéro vert et un site, Stop-gaspillage, sur le thème « L’énergie est limitée. Ne la gaspillons pas. »

Parmi les perles : « Le fait de s’habiller chaudement plutôt que de monter le chauffage est recommandé. » Ou encore : « Toute lumière allumée dans une pièce vide gaspille inutilement de l’énergie : il faut toujours penser à éteindre les lampes lorsqu’on quitte une pièce. » Lapalissades ridicules ? Sans doute, mais c’est aussi un moyen pour l’Etat de se dédouaner par avance des reproches qu’on ne manquera pas de lui adresser quand les factures des consommateurs exploseront. Fidèle au dogme libéral du pays, il n’interviendra pas pour les aider.

Re: Europe is in danger of rolling electricity shortages

#395
post #373

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yes but lights are turned off, factories are turned off, trains aren't running and many other things as well. And most people don't cook during the night.

Still not enought to power all cars during the night, given the charging time. Anyway that isn't an issue, because only a few elected ones can charge their Teslas on their private parkings.

The cars don't need all night to charge, and most people don't need a full charge every day. Unless you claim that with EV people will drive radically more, you will see the same thing where most people don't use their cars that often and thus they don't need to charge that much.

And lots of people with a car don't actually park on the street. Its usually an outside parking spot or a parking garage. Both can add electricity rather easily.

And simply remaining on ICE is just about 100x dumber. I prefer walking, biking and trains to, but cars will not go away, and transitioning those to EV.

I have seen study that suggest its not as big an issue as you make it out to be. Please show me the study that has realistic assumptions that claims it will be a huge problem.

Re: Europe is in danger of rolling electricity shortages

#396
post #358

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This 5x number is nonsense. Its generalizing for a few projects that happened in a time when there was very limited constructionist and because of 40 years of neglect not even a workforce that was available. > wind+solar+pumped storage combo Pumped storage is available in most places. And there is literally no alternative. Its insane to build a society on a technology that if something goes wrong, society only has 1-…

>This 5x number is nonsense. Sadly it doesnt surprise me that youre surprised. You ought to check lazard for a full LCOE comparison. I didnt just make it up. >France had advanced reactors in the 90s and guess what, instead of building them they were killed in the endless attempted by some forces (usually greens and left) to prevent nuclear from happening. The greens never had enough political power to do that. Cost w…

> It's the same reason it was just nationalized.

These 'fake private' industries don't make much sense anyway. The energy grid in these countries is centrally planned and was built as such.

> The nuclear lobby does share the oil industry's utter disdain both for the environment and environmentalists though

They certainty don't hate smart enviornmentalists who have for 50 years tried to move to green energy.

Of course they hate the kind of Greenpeace environmentalists who have for 50 years demonized the industry with absurd claims.

> The greens never had enough political power to do that.

Go and learn your history. The Greens in coalition with the left made it a explicit point to kill Superphénix.

> It is so very, very obvious how much they hate the Germans with a for proving nuclear power doesnt need to be part of any green transition, for instance.

And yet every single time in the last 5 years I have gone to electricity map I see France in a green color and Germany in a brown color. Amazing how France has been able to have a green grid when Germany was literally just coal.

CO2 saved in the past is far more important then CO2 saved now. What France did in the 70-90s is what everybody could have done and we would have non of the problems we have now.

Not to mention the 100000s of people who suffering from health defects and early deaths because of the greens implicit protected coal.

> Then theyd have run out of money. It's a good thing they didnt choose the 5x more expensive, slightly more dangerous and slower option. Unlike the nuclear industry they gave half a damn about global warming.

Carbon intensity in Germany right now: 316g (we are literally talking middle of the day with massive solar)

Carbon intensity in France right now: 65g

Oh btw, France right now is exporting green power to Germany.

Its amazing how ignorant people can be. Look at France transformation in the 70-90s and how much nuclear they built how quickly. That was with 1960 technology. Germany from 2000-2020 could have been significantly faster with newer technology.

Its absolutly absurd to suggest that Germany from 2000-2020 couldn't have built 40 nuclear reactors. Had they been serious they could have built double that. You can even just built them at current location of coal plants and then turn of those coal plants once the reactor is done, minimal disruption of the overall grid.

And again, you constant claim of '5x' as expensive simply doesn't hold up if you are mass producing plants. Its just nonsense. You are concluding from individual projects that were built in isolation in countries that had lost experience.

Re: Europe is in danger of rolling electricity shortages

#397

Earlier quoted context omitted.

While simultaneously investing billions in EU wind-farms [0] [0] https://www.politico.eu/article/chinese-wind-farm-investment...

They built more wind generation, and more solar generation, and more hydro generation than they did nuclear, in their own country. So its not some conspiracy that they were supporting building wind in europe too. They now have the most experience with this cutting edge energy technology.

Good point, I've missed that important topic. Good to see they finally embrace renewables!

Re: Europe is in danger of rolling electricity shortages

#398

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't think I'm mixing things up, I think you are. Coal extraction in the western world is making huge amounts of money and scaling up production, exactly the opposite of what the naysayers were incessantly parroting. Coal is no different than wind and solar in terms of accessibility of plant or product. Actually renewables are significantly easier to acquire and scale and deploy in many cases -- millions of people…

https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/statistics-explained/index.php... https://www.ceicdata.com/en/indicator/united-states/coal-pro... https://www.statista.com/statistics/184333/coal-energy-consu... https://www.worldometers.info/coal/australia-coal/ Australia has consumption going down but production going up, they're selling to China and India. I hope this clears up your confusion. > Actually renewables are significantly e…

[deleted]

Re: Europe is in danger of rolling electricity shortages

#399

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't think I'm mixing things up, I think you are. Coal extraction in the western world is making huge amounts of money and scaling up production, exactly the opposite of what the naysayers were incessantly parroting. Coal is no different than wind and solar in terms of accessibility of plant or product. Actually renewables are significantly easier to acquire and scale and deploy in many cases -- millions of people…

https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/statistics-explained/index.php... https://www.ceicdata.com/en/indicator/united-states/coal-pro... https://www.statista.com/statistics/184333/coal-energy-consu... https://www.worldometers.info/coal/australia-coal/ Australia has consumption going down but production going up, they're selling to China and India. I hope this clears up your confusion. > Actually renewables are significantly e…

I didn't, you're confused about my original point. Nothing you said addresses what I wrote. Try going back and re-reading it.

Re: Europe is in danger of rolling electricity shortages

#400

Earlier quoted context omitted.

https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/statistics-explained/index.php... https://www.ceicdata.com/en/indicator/united-states/coal-pro... https://www.statista.com/statistics/184333/coal-energy-consu... https://www.worldometers.info/coal/australia-coal/ Australia has consumption going down but production going up, they're selling to China and India. I hope this clears up your confusion. > Actually renewables are significantly e…

I didn't, you're confused about my original point. Nothing you said addresses what I wrote. Try going back and re-reading it.

I'm saying those claims were limited to the western world, they didn't address anything else. Where it is true that coal is on its way out.
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