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San Francisco braces for commercial real estate crash

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Re: San Francisco braces for commercial real estate crash

#391

Post by RC_ITR »

jeffbee wrote: post #30
ryandrake wrote: post #6

Residential crash is potentially already upon us, at least in the outskirts (East Bay for me). We've had our house on the market for over a month now, and nobody else in the neighborhood is selling either. Big changes from only 3 months ago, when sellers were closing in days.

OH NO A WHOLE MONTH!! Inventory of listed homes remains extremely low. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/ACTLISCOUCA Median days on market still near all-time lows SF: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MEDDAYONMAR41860 Cal: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MEDDAYONMARCA USA: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MEDDAYONMARUS

Hey, just so you know, that “share links” button leads to some of the best share options I’ve ever seen on a data website. You could combine those three lines on one chart and share as a static image for example.

Only sharing bc I was late to the party on them too.

Re: San Francisco braces for commercial real estate crash

#392

Post by onlyrealcuzzo »

intrasight wrote: post #363
onlyrealcuzzo wrote: post #350

Earlier quoted context omitted.

States and counties are starting to move away from this. Michigan essentially has a prop 13 that limits property tax increases to below what the average inflation rate is (far below average home price appreciation). Counties like Allegheny in Pennsylvania (Pittsburgh) simply just haven't reassessed properties since 2012 - which is actually even more regressive than Prop 13 in CA and the equivalent in Michigan. I imag…

In Allegheny myself (perhaps you saw that). You are right that having such a law doesn't mean that it will be enforced. That's what the courts are for. https://www.publicsource.org/allegheny-county-property-tax-a...

I didn't see that - but thanks for the link [=

Re: San Francisco braces for commercial real estate crash

#393

Post by falcolas »

bombcar wrote: post #327
happyopossum wrote: post #274

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> In an ideal world house prices would increase 1:1 with wage growth from an affordable baseline. There's only one way to do that - a command economy, with all housing owned and doled out by the government. That just doesn't work, anywhere, ever. You have to work very hard to ignore the fact that some places are more desirable than others to live in, and sometimes those desirable places change. Also, different people…

It's a good question and how we "did" it in the past might need to be investigated. House prices and appreciation were basically the same throughout the US until something like the 1950s, when places like CA began to far outstrip other parts of the country. I don't think that CA became a desirable place to live suddenly in the 50s, but perhaps it did?

In the 50’s, the population of the U.S. was under half of what it is now. And lots of professionals (and their high wages) like to live, or must live, in urban areas driving prices up in those same areas.

Supply and demand, combined with “rugged individualism” valued so highly in the states. That individualism is largely what drives NIMBY mentalities.

Re: San Francisco braces for commercial real estate crash

#394

Post by bombcar »

onlyrealcuzzo wrote: post #292
mitchdoogle wrote: post #187

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I've known many marijuana and alcohol users in my time, some of them quite heavy users. I can't say any of it led to crime.

DUIs are one of the most common crimes in the US.

Reducing DUI by reducing the amount of "necessary driving" would be a much better use of our time than trying to criminalize all sorts of other things.

Hell, having the government pay for your uber if you can blow high enough on the drink-o-meter would probably only cost some billions and save tremendous amounts of lives and money.

Re: San Francisco braces for commercial real estate crash

#395

Post by onlyrealcuzzo »

cjbgkagh wrote: post #365
nikanj wrote: post #302

Earlier quoted context omitted.

A 20% reversion is back to early 2021 prices..

Given the long history of ever increasing housing prices people have become accustomed to treating asset price inflation on property as income. Why work a 9-5 when your house can make your money (and your banks money) go to work for you. A lot of that money is spent - it's very difficult to un-spend it for a downturn. Plus a chunk of the recent nominal price inflation is due to general inflation and regressing to the…

In China for decades, the average house appreciated more in one year than the average person made after taxes in a life-time.

Re: San Francisco braces for commercial real estate crash

#396

Post by ricardobayes »

55555 wrote: post #264
ricardobayes wrote: post #233

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The real real secret is Portugal, can't beat 10 years tax-free on foreign income.

This made me curious so I googled. It looks like you need to still pay tax in the other country (DTA), so, for example, as an American, I'd need to pay tax in America. Ofcourse I could get the FEIE but that only solves the problem for the first 110k USD. If you're paying 0% on more than 110k, where are u from? I guess most countries don't have worldwide taxation so you would just pay 0% in Portugal and 0% in the othe…

This problem solves itself as I can't say I have seen many remote jobs that truly pay a US salary but allow you to live abroad permanently. Many people say they support location-independent salaries but reality says otherwise. Portugal has so low living costs you can live like a king on half of that, many german pensioners live there drawing a 1.5k pension a month and they eat at restaurants for basically every meal. I know someone who hasn't turned on the oven at home for 17 years. That said, southern europe is not so 'anti-alised' as parts of US, but it's pretty nice, the quality of life is amazing. Lisbon even has its own Golden Gate Bridge, called the '25 de Abril' Bridge.

Re: San Francisco braces for commercial real estate crash

#397

Post by bombcar »

55555 wrote: post #244
inamberclad wrote: post #138

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Drug use isn't associated with crime and filth until we make it so via harsh city policies. I would, however, like someone to clean the 4 different instances of poop I saw on my 3 block walk this morning.

I don't live in San Francisco, so please humor me, but are you talking about dog poop or human poop? I know this is an absurd question -- I've never seen human poop on a sidewalk in my entire life -- but I've heard stories about SF...

Dog poop is an annoying side-effect of city living in some cities - there have been articles about it, and how hard it is to change a given city.

But SF poop is not the dog poop.

Re: San Francisco braces for commercial real estate crash

#398

Post by mechanical_bear »

55555 wrote: post #244
inamberclad wrote: post #138

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Drug use isn't associated with crime and filth until we make it so via harsh city policies. I would, however, like someone to clean the 4 different instances of poop I saw on my 3 block walk this morning.

I don't live in San Francisco, so please humor me, but are you talking about dog poop or human poop? I know this is an absurd question -- I've never seen human poop on a sidewalk in my entire life -- but I've heard stories about SF...

Definitely human, I’ve seen it being dispensed multiple times on the sidewalk.

Re: San Francisco braces for commercial real estate crash

#399

Post by citizenkeen »

buscoquadnary wrote: post #184
Apocryphon wrote: post #142

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Californians and the like are moving to Idaho, so the COL there will gradually increase towards parity. And perhaps Arkansas eventually? https://www.camdenarknews.com/news/2022/aug/31/will-climate-...

As someone who moved to ID because I have in laws in the area I can tell you it is a terrible place, no one should move here, the locals are rude and crude, it is freezing 8 months out of the year. Everyone here is an avid Trump supporter and openly racist. They drive big pickup trucks everywhere. The mountains are too far away and horrible, everything here is terrible in every way no one should move here the entire…

Instructions confusing. Just rented AirBnB in Idaho.

Re: San Francisco braces for commercial real estate crash

#400

Post by Maursault »

zzzeek wrote: post #226
cpursley wrote: post #191

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Money goes to where it's treated best and people vote with their feet. I know people thumb their nose on the state, but Florida is open for business. But the real secret is Puerto Rico and their incredible tax incentives for software companies.

Florida is not a good environment for companies that have female employees, as due to FL's draconian anti-abortion law, state surveillance of pregnancies is now required as miscarriages past 15 weeks now need to be treated as potential homicides.

A swing to the Right will often cause a swing to the Left. In Florida, registered Republicans lead Democrats by less than one percentage point as of August 2022, and there are more than 10M women in Florida, half the population, and only 4.5M senior citizens, less than a quarter of the population. It is my optimistic belief that DeSantis' days in politics are numbered, mostly due to his association with a certain mentally ill and criminally-inclined one-termer president, but also because his "semi-fascism" isn't really working for him either. The Republican playbook is to prevent (usually minority-member) Democrats from voting by any means necessary, but this just can't keep working successfully forever.
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