Live data from Hacker News

Covid: Summary of lab-origin hypothesis

twitter.com

391–400 of 631 posts

Re: Covid: Summary of lab-origin hypothesis

#391

Did someone come up with a good explanation of why Peter Daszak and various affiliates of EcoHealth alliance were involved in nearly all the media "coverage" (dismissals) of the lab leak hypothesis when it first popped up? And why The Lancet published the initial letter dismissing lab leak, clearly coordinated by EcoHealth alliance? And why Daszak also was on the WHO investigation team? And why to this day no one apo…

Also it is good to keep in mind the following [0] from Matt Ridley.

0- https://twitter.com/mattwridley/status/1565242836710309891

Re: Covid: Summary of lab-origin hypothesis

#392

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That's not fair, these questions have existed in the public sphere for years now with no official explanation. This is one more "talk to the hand" played by the authorities. I suppose when authorities behave this way, they shouldn't expect themselves to have grassroots support.

The problem is that the way the questions are posed comes across as "what are they hiding?!?" You have to admit that it's not a good way to kick off a discussion of the subject in earnest.

Here's what I'll admit, its shady as hell for a group of scientists (some with especially confounding conflicts) to come out and dismiss something as so unlikely as to be impossible when it was obviously still a plausible explanation. That was not a scientific position to take, but a political one. Lab leaks are not new or especially rare. There is a now public paper trail indicating they were trying to build the damn thing! You have to admit that it's not a good way to kick off a discussion of the subject in earnest. Imagine after the bombings of Hiroshima and Nagasaki, if the scientists working on the Manhattan Project came out claiming that natural instances of fission accounted for all known instances of fission in the wild. It's a purely fallacious argument coming from the highest authority on the subject and that doesn't have you worried? But the tone of OPs question is worth worrying about?

Re: Covid: Summary of lab-origin hypothesis

#393

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That is not a valid reason for a higher Bayesian prior of the lab leak hypothesis. A prior is that, a prior: the fact that many institutions would see their reputation damaged in the event of a known lab leak has no effect on making a lab leak event more likely to happen a priori . In fact, it would make much more sense to argue the opposite (not that I would necessarily agree with this reasoning either). The fact th…

> On the Bayesian level though, what can make sense would be to argue that the fact that so many institutions would be damaged post hoc if a lab leak were to be known, then the weight of evidence against the event which has been provided by such institutions should be lower. Wouldn’t weighing evidence play a key role in assessing relative likelihoods of two possible causes of an event that had already occurred? Espec…

> Wouldn’t weighing evidence play a key role in assessing relative likelihoods of two possible causes of an event that had already occurred?

Absolutely, yes. However, it would not affect the priors.

Re: Covid: Summary of lab-origin hypothesis

#394
post #372

Earlier quoted context omitted.

And, it has reached the top, with the most disturbing phrase I’ve seen come out of the White House [1]: “When you are not with where the majority of Americans are, then, you know, that is extreme. That is an extreme way of thinking.” 1. https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=dButKWnTmG8&feature=emb_title

Isn't this just the definition of the word extreme? I mean, I get that maybe they're using the word extreme to equal bad (maybe not), but I think this is just the definition of the word. Why do you think it's bad to have an extreme opinion? I probably have quite a few of extreme opinions. Some wrong, some right, some I cherish, some I dismiss.

> Isn't this just the definition of the word extreme?

Absolutely not. From the dictionary:

    extreme
      Most remote in any direction; outermost or farthest.
      Being in or attaining the greatest or highest degree; very intense.
      Being far beyond the norm: synonym: excessive

Re: Covid: Summary of lab-origin hypothesis

#395
post #389

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think a lot of people in the lab leak community are looking for someone to blame, purely out of retribution, which is ultimately pointless. Ignoring that contingent, it's still important to do a full postmortem after a catastrophe. If a bridge collapses, people don't say "oh well, life moves on". They figured out why it collapsed, and then design the next generation of bridges to not fail in that way. If you don't…

> purely out of retribution, which is ultimately pointless. If a mad scientist was making a better bomb design, and accidentally blew up a million people through negligence, would your perspective be different? What about a bridge that collapses and kills people? Engineers go to prison for that. There needs to be accountability for, demonstrably, one of the most dangerous acts that can be done. I would be perfectly o…

Blaming process failures on individuals rarely yields any results. Can you give me one example of a time it worked; where merely punishing an individual without making any process changes has prevented a class of accidents since that incident to now?

My take is that any process relying on a single individual is ultimately a failure. All sorts of things happen to individuals, including losing the ability to fear the consequences (think degenerative brain disease; cancer, Alzheimer's, etc.) With the fear of consequences eliminated, your process fails open and retribution accomplishes nothing. If some scientist at a bomb lab wants to kill 1 billion people, including themselves, no punishment is going to deter them. "An eye for an eye", while appealing to our reptile brains, can't scale beyond a single murder. So your process for preventing mass murder can't include it if it's to be effective.

Punishment doesn't bring your loved ones back from the dead. All we can hope for is a system that doesn't fail so easily next time.

Re: Covid: Summary of lab-origin hypothesis

#396
post #361

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> of course the science will change in the middle of new viral outbreak No. Science very very rarely changes. The confidence in the possible explanations is what changes. They communicated low confidence information with high confidence. The trust was destroyed with, what appeared to be, a concerted effort to silence those that accurately communicated the low confidence, or presented other equally possible, and far t…

"We're sorry millions of you are dying, but we got nothing for ya'" may be good science but horrific politics.

That’s, obviously, nonsense/hyperbole. I would suggest looking at the communication in Germany for a good example of science communication.

Re: Covid: Summary of lab-origin hypothesis

#397

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The fact that we were strongly told no and then yes with equal conviction is sufficient to demonstrate the point, regardless of whether masks work. Whether intentionally or not, media and governments can mislead in an in effect coordinated fashion. (Note there is a straw-man counterargument where one might say “so they changed their mind as evidence evolved, that’s allowed”. But the information was presented as estab…

>(Note there is a straw-man counterargument where one might say “so they changed their mind as evidence evolved, that’s allowed”. But the information was presented as established and factual in both cases. We have always been at war with Eastasia.) My friend, if you expect immediate inerrancy from everyone dealing with global-scale novel viruses, then I think you'll find that you'll _always_ be disappointed (or, more…

It’s fine to make mistakes, especially in a fluid, developing situation. And it is precisely therefore we shouldn’t dress up our hypothesises as fact.

The actors here presented mask dictates as gospel. They were either wrong when anti-mask or wrong when pro-mask, but somehow conveyed absolute confidence in both cases. This is very harmful for the public discourse and for the reputation of the authorities during a time when reputation was paramount.

It’s okay not to know everything, just be honest about it.

Re: Covid: Summary of lab-origin hypothesis

#398
post #372

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Quoted post unavailable.

And, it has reached the top, with the most disturbing phrase I’ve seen come out of the White House [1]: “When you are not with where the majority of Americans are, then, you know, that is extreme. That is an extreme way of thinking.” 1. https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=dButKWnTmG8&feature=emb_title

The majority of any population (not just USA) are ignorant about most topics. Masses are not intelligent. This is particularly true of a range of topics, from economics and financial domains to anything in the sciences and engineering. The masses are also really bad at being intelligent about anything that requires a long term view or planning.

Given that, it is probably fair to say that the intelligent people are likely not where the majority opinion lies. Not always, of course, there are no absolutes. Being outside the majority generally requires applying critical thinking and sometimes a lot of work to truly understand something. My mother used to vote based on who she liked. I mean, quite literally, not much different from a beauty contest. If she liked the person --for whatever reason-- she voted for them. I loved my mom, but her voting was ignorant and likely damaging to society. I hypothesize, based on conversations, that most people vote this way (or straight-up party affiliation, which is equally stupid).

As an example I use the work I had to undertake in order to understand something seemingly simple: The reality vs. the fantasy of photovoltaic solar energy. I was 100% on the fantasy camp when I built my 13 kW array. It didn't take long for me to, as an engineer, start asking questions based on what I was seeing. The full understanding took an honest evaluation based on actually having skin in the game, experience, math and more. It probably took me a couple of years to go from being a solar energy cult member to being a solar energy realist. I venture to guess that 99.9% of people will never take that journey.

If understanding that the masses are wrong makes one "extreme", so be it. These days we find all kinds of ways to denigrate and stomp on people who don't push accepted narratives. The masses don't realize that politicians create divisive narratives with the sole purpose of capturing votes and retaining or growing power. They do not --regardless of party-- work for us. They work for themselves. They work to stay in power. That is, in CS terminology, their fitness function --what drives their evolution and actions. Their power is evidence of just how stupid populations have been over the years.

On a much darker side, this statement out of government --any government-- is scary in ways history has shown us time and time again. Genocides have been perpetrated because the masses --ignorant and stupid as they are-- are easily manipulated to fall in line with the politics of the those in power. The Armenian, Jewish and Darfour genocides are just a few examples of this. Mobs are not intelligent. We should actually embrace those who do not agree with the majority, not expunge them.

Re: Covid: Summary of lab-origin hypothesis

#399

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That is not a valid reason for a higher Bayesian prior of the lab leak hypothesis. A prior is that, a prior: the fact that many institutions would see their reputation damaged in the event of a known lab leak has no effect on making a lab leak event more likely to happen a priori . In fact, it would make much more sense to argue the opposite (not that I would necessarily agree with this reasoning either). The fact th…

"as said institutions would put in place strong measures to avoid it" I was going to joke, but this is NOT TRUE AT ALL Based on my life experience, a more correct idea is, "as said institutions would put in place strong measures to avoid appearing to have caused it" This tilts the argument back the other way. Look, I don't know about lab vs natural origins of COVID-19, but I do know that big, human orgs tend to have…

Hence why I explicitly clarified "not that I would necessarily agree with this reasoning either". Whether the premise is correct or not, the argument that it would reduce the prior were the premise to be true is correct. That would not be the case in the initial suggestion, i.e. that the fact that these institutions would lose prestige would somehow increase the base chances of the event happening.

Regarding your own interpretation of the argument, i.e. that large human organisations are more likely to have ineffectual preventative measures, therefore increasing the prior probability of a lab leak, that would technically be a valid argument. However, in this case in particular, assuming that premise raises the question "Compared to what?". It's not like there is a cottage industry of artisanal HS4 laboratories that we can say are better at following safety requirements than large ones.

I myself have no strong opinion either way regarding the lab-leak vs. natural origin hypotheses. In fact, a while ago I thought of a "consensus" hypothesis, which is that the origin was accidental human infection during sample collection in caves. However, this possibility would fit better with a purely wild-type virus, and thus would not be consistent with the sequence oddities explained in the linked Twitter thread.

Re: Covid: Summary of lab-origin hypothesis

#400
post #367

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I specifically said that no conspiracy is required, that the mechanism is baked into the system. As for the rest of the world, all the information is NOT accessible and public. Far from it. China is notoriously secretive and the US bio-security industry certainly isn't more forthcoming. Second, who says there isn't a control mechanism for non-US research science? Where does funding come from outside the US and how is…

Everything you're doing and alleging is conspiracy. That there is some greater will censoring anything that would reveal it was a lab leak. There's no point in arguing with you because anything can be contorted to fit this narrative you've crafted to fit everything neatly into this conspiracy. In reality hiding something like this on a global scale is quite literally impossible. That's simply a fact of how informatio…

I could say there's no point in arguing with you for the exact same reasons. I see you really don't want to understand my argument and would rather blithely dismiss strawmen. That's your prerogative. For anyone else who reads this, I'll continue clarifying why I think you're argument is naive and, frankly, simplistic. You seem not to have a clear understanding of American politics. Maybe you don't live here or, if you do you don't pay much attention to deep politics. That's forgivable. Most people don't have the time, heart, or stomach for it. I assume you're talking about the former President pushing the claim? That is hardly the most powerful position in America. Do you think Joe Biden is the most powerful person in America? LoL. Read Glennon's book National Security and Double Government, or Sheldon Wolin's Democracy Incorporated for a primer.

You clearly don't grok ruling class ideology and discourse policing. Please don't mislead other people with these tired arguments about conspiracy theories. Although, there is plenty of evidence of actual conspiracy at the top of the FDA and NIH if you want to nitpick. You might also want to investigate the modus operandi and principle funding structures of the WTO and WHO. But you would probably argue there were no conspiracies in Imperial Britain because they're just not possible. Your lack of historical knowledge blinds you to possibility.

But I'm not even talking about technical "conspiracy" so called. I'm talking about ideological control structures for the ruling class and those within it. Your statements are a prime example of someone who cannot see outside your ideology. You don't even know that you don't know. That's the essential feature of ideological compliance. There absolutely are conspiracies to suppress information, that's called censorship. Wait, don't tell me. You're a fan of that, too. But only to suppress disinformation and protect the feebleminded masses from their own stupidity, right? But not you! You've got enough grey matter to handle it and come to the "right" conclusions. We all know the "right" opinions and we all want to be on the "right side of history", don't we? That's right. We don't need to be told that certain ideas are junk disinformation while other, approved ideas, are justified true belief. There's a good lad, off you go.

Btw, the lab leak hypothesis was originally making a splash in the blogosphere in January 2020 before the narrative could get ahead of it. Then the political arms of the government science institutions and the pathetically complicit media leaped to the rescue by savaging the people who would dare suggest such a thing. Google "lab leak Wuhan" with a date filter if you want to relive those heady days. It's especially funny that you would make such a claim since that's exactly the sort of thing members in good standing of the establishment are expected to believe. There's really no point in arguing with someone who's mind has been broken by propaganda. I'm sorry for your loss.

Post reply on HN