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The Portuguese can no longer afford to live in Portugal

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Re: The Portuguese can no longer afford to live in Portugal

#391

Earlier quoted context omitted.

We pay a rent for a small flat that used to be very expensive and now is on the cheap side in our quarter of the city Portugal should build more housing, which is a simple, effective solution if the rent is too damn high: https://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2012/03/the-ren... . The nice thing about indoor space is that we can make pretty much as much of it as we'd like.

> The nice thing about indoor space is that we can make pretty much as much of it as we'd like. What? Have you ever been in Lisbon? The city is pretty dense as it is. You could mostly just build higher, and that has its limits too, depending on the structure and foundation. Adding more housing outside the core of the city might not be attractive enough. And increasing the density of people also means you need to incr…

Have you been to San Francisco?

Lisbon: 100.05 km^2 , 544k people

San Francisco: 121.48 km^2, 873k people

20% more room than Lisbon, 60% more people.

Re: The Portuguese can no longer afford to live in Portugal

#392
post #372

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Actually California natives have one good thing going for them. Prop 13. So if you or your parents have lived in the house for 30+ years you're likely to pay $2K in property taxes on a $1M house (annually). The lack of middle-class jobs is a whole different story.

And that is the flip side to Prop 13, which a bunch of people like to hate on. Absent Prop 13 (for residential properties) a lot of long-term residents would be forced out by rapidly rising property taxes. Which would-be residents may not like but is not at all clearly a bad thing.

The fact that proponents of Prop 13 oppose restricting it to primary residence or exempting commercial property from protection, etc. show that this is not the real truth for why people like Prop 13.

Besides, you can simply transfer-tax it anyway. For a primary residence, this being the system:

1. You pay Prop 13 tax

2. You accrue true prop tax

3. You may sell the home and buy a new home and net-cap-gains you get the accrued tax taken out of profit

So then you don't get "pushed out", you pay when you sell, and it only applies to your home not to your rental properties. But that's not what people want - they ultimately would prefer the "housing crisis" but that's politically unpopular so they'll say other things, though occasionally the truth will leak out.

Re: The Portuguese can no longer afford to live in Portugal

#393

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Practically every single capital is like that these days. People of all nations can copy paste same rant and it would be 100% valid. This is how it is, too much buying power with new generation of higher level office workers compared to blue collar ones, on top of financial speculation with either prices skyrocketing, or airbnbs. Let's not forget there is more and more of people in general, and more and more coming f…

I would argue the Canadian one of Ottawa. Ottawa isn't cheap, but it is not anywhere near Toronto or Vancouver.

Right, it really should say anchor cities and not capital IMO. Those may coincide sometimes, but not always.

Re: The Portuguese can no longer afford to live in Portugal

#394

You could say the same about where is a popular tourist destination that has over 15% of it's economy based in tourism. Czechs were the minority property owners in Prague some 20 years ago, already. Inflation is occurring at higher rates in some countries than others (cough Estonia, Turkey for example) and Portugal is not exceptional in this respect. The starting salaries for doctors in the Portuguese SNS are terribl…

> Uniquely complaining about PORTUGAL being unaffordable for the PORTUGUESE is such a Portuguese mentality, I can't even.

I love this complaint. It's so perfectly a demonstrations of itself. It's somehow as if, suffering a problem that someone else suffers from, means you're not allowed to even discuss it. It's also hardly unique to Portugal. Most countries discuss domestic politics in terms of the country, because they have say over the policy of non-domestic territories. (Usually - colonial empires excepted.)

Re: The Portuguese can no longer afford to live in Portugal

#395
post #312

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Indeed. I'm most familiar with the US market so can't speak for European countries which may be different, but here's a graph of estimated vacant units held off-market against total housing units in the US: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=TiNw

Is this a high or a low number? On the one hand, https://www.usich.gov/tools-for-action/2020-point-in-time-co...

4% vacancy is what you get if people live in a house for two years before moving, and it takes a month before a new family moves in. Sounds pretty normal, and with no obvious way of using this idle time to help the homeless.

Re: The Portuguese can no longer afford to live in Portugal

#396

Tokyo seems to have solved this by building houses and transportation right? What's preventing other governments from duplicating this? Politics? If so what was unique about Tokyo?

Tokyo also bans Airbnb, period. Something most people here don’t understand.

Re: The Portuguese can no longer afford to live in Portugal

#397
post #158
post #52

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I can't think of any major urban area in the world and any time period in history where "housing is too expensive" hasn't been the popular sentiment.

This is interesting, because (at least in America) the current rhetoric is that housing was laughably affordable up until the 70s(?). Now, even in suburbs, housing is far more expensive than most wage earners could expect to afford. Maybe we are thinking of two different sides of the same coin, but I would genuinely be interested in reading articles from the ~mid-century describing what you suggest.

> This is interesting, because (at least in America) the current rhetoric is that housing was laughably affordable up until the 70s(?).

I always find this a bit of a disappointing discussion, cherry picked to the extremes.

If we're being honest in talking about the cost of housing, we'd try to make apples to apples comparisons.

For example, if we used to eat apples that were 2 inches in diameter, lacked sweetness, had lots of seeds in them and started to rot after two days, and then 50 years later the average apple was tasty, 10 inches in diameter, seedless and juicy and lasted two weeks, you wouldn't necessarily conclude that because its price had doubled that apples have become more expensive.

But we kind of do that with housing.

Since 1969, homes have more than doubled in average size. Such homes were shared by 3.3 people, now by 2.5 (or 25% fewer people per house). And we used to pay 10% interest, now 5%.

So we have 2.6x as much square footage per person, and pay half the financing cost as we did before. And median nominal personal income tenfolded since the 60s. Of course you expect home prices to increase by a lot, it doesn't mean housing was laughably affordable and now isn't.

In fact there's quite a few studies which show that a unit of housing (e.g. the percentage of income spent on a square foot used by 1 person) has gotten cheaper. We just happen to consume more of it, and share it with fewer people, and pay less to finance price levels, which pushes the price levels to new heights without housing itself having become more expensive. [0]

If you then take into account the quality of housing and neighbourhoods, you see even the above is still an apples to oranges discussion. The amenities inside the home and in the neighbourhood are simply no comparison. I literally have a supercomputer allowing 3D simulations of any kind known to creativity on a screen with better quality than a 1970s movie theatre (I'm talking about a PS5 on a 4k screen) in my home. And I live in a town with 190 nationalities and as many kitchens within a 15 minute commute, just like parties with every denomination of music and dance, multiple universities and schools teaching just about any skill, shops selling just about any worldwide product I'd like. Of course all this access comes with a price because there was scarcely a place on earth like it 50 years ago, and now my city (Amsterdam) has many equivalents around the world, Lisbon being an example named in the thread's article. If you put our lifestyles and general wealth of pretty ordinary people like myself in these cities to the test of any city 50 years ago, you'd maybe find some of the very elite in NYC and London living like that, and that's it.

[0] https://www.forbes.com/sites/steveforbes/2021/06/25/us-housi... -- this isn't a proper study, but does substantiate some of the claims I made above. It's even missing some things (it overestimates principal paydown as a cost rather than a cashflow, and it doesn't account for quality differences).

Re: The Portuguese can no longer afford to live in Portugal

#398

Unsustainable. If you're a wealthy individual living in an expensive residence surrounded by other wealthy individuals living in expensive residences, you still need garbagemen to collect your garbage. You still need food. Whether you order from local restaurants staffed by employees, or buy your groceries at the supermarket, staffed by employees, janitorial personnel, security guards, and managers, you're still rely…

> you need an electrician or a plumber. Preferably one who doesn't have to live five hours away.

FWIW the electricians and plumbers are the ones living right next door to the techies. They charge ridiculously high hourly rates and there aren't nearly enough of them, so they can keep raising their rates almost without limit. Try to find a decent electrician for less than $150/hr (this is SF Bay Area). A refrigerator repairman will charge you $300 just to walk in your house and diagnose an issue.

Re: The Portuguese can no longer afford to live in Portugal

#399

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I've been thinking about this I think it is the end result of globalization. First we could ship stuff overseas, then we could ship jobs overseas, now people are realizing they can ship their house overseas, and Portugal has a much nicer climate and weather than Shanghai so why not move there. Basically with the advent of the internet and the rise in remote work there's no more reason people really feel tied to a pla…

Feels that way too. America’s increasingly tough stance on exports to China are a sign of things to come. I’m not even sure if this Globalization was worth all that much. It’s made some people very wealthy, some people well-off, but its also made lots of people very poor and very angry. I’m okay with living in a world with fewer millionaires but also fewer people sleeping on the streets.

>I’m okay with living in a world with fewer millionaires but also fewer people sleeping on the streets.

Did you mean billionaires? Because a million isn't what it used to be...

Re: The Portuguese can no longer afford to live in Portugal

#400

Tokyo seems to have solved this by building houses and transportation right? What's preventing other governments from duplicating this? Politics? If so what was unique about Tokyo?

japan has pretty much 0 immigration and 0 population growth
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