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Looming natural gas shortages has the EU scrambling for solutions

spiegel.de

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Re: Looming natural gas shortages has the EU scrambling for solutions

#391
post #284

Earlier quoted context omitted.

A lot of bad country leaders have been right at times. I am trying to resist to invoke Godwin's law here...

No idea why you're bringing up Godwin's law here, to be honest...

Not? There is no doubt, that even Hitler every now and then did something right. But of course that doesn't excuse him from being the Monster he was and all the crimes he was responsible for.

Re: Looming natural gas shortages has the EU scrambling for solutions

#392

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Except that it's not. The ruble is the best performing currency in 2022, inflation is not as bad as predicted, shelves in Russia are full and Russian state tax revenue is way up (they raised pensions and mimimum wage by 10%). Sure, there is some pain - but there's this little thing called import substitution. The Chinese and Turks are happy to oblige (machines, vehicles). The sanctions are just making Russia more ind…

You can contradict the opinions of experts all you want, but i’m still going to believe “Russian political scientist Ilya Matveev” over hacker news commenter cpursley 11 times out of ten. I agree it’s not working as well as we’d all hoped, but to say it’s strengthening russia is not in alignment with what all expert opinions i’ve heard so far are saying.

Ilya is a young "political scientist" (not a real science, btw), very open about his left and anti-Russia biases and certainly no economics expert. Please consider broadening your sources of expert opinion because "all experts" are absolutely not in agreement just like "the entire world" is not actually against Russia (unless you believe the EU and Anglo-sphere is "the entire world").

Re: Looming natural gas shortages has the EU scrambling for solutions

#393

Earlier quoted context omitted.

1-2 hard years? Do you understand how long the infrastructure for the transition takes to plan, sign off on & build?

It time of war things can go faster than usual. With the right policy the transition speed will increase exponentially. Cheap oil and gas made the transition harder (politically). This crisis could be a blessing in diguisse.

Where's the evidence that anything at all is "going" other than talk? The alternative energy sources should be under construction like yesterday.

Re: Looming natural gas shortages has the EU scrambling for solutions

#394

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It is an emergency lasting at least 8-10 months starting now so as to not deplete the reserves. I don't think the turbines can last that long without regular heavy maintenance. Also, I highly doubt some of these can run on crude oil. Before this claim the only type of device capable of such fuel ranges I knew of is the main battle tank. It makes more sense to me that a tank is designed for versatility, and a gas turb…

[1]. https://www.ge.com/gas-power/products/gas-turbines/7e > Its multiple-fuel combustion system allows switching from one fuel to another while running under load. Note that gas turbines are very flexible with fuels because it's a continuous combustion process and done at very high temperatures. That means you don't care about flamefronts, knocking, octane figures, etc. All that matters is that whatever you burn end…

TIL. Well, color me surprised. I even found a source mentioning crude oil:

> Oils: Includes crudes and other refined residuals that are heated to acceptable levels to enable the needed viscosity for gas turbine combustion.

https://www.ge.com/content/dam/gepower-new/global/en_US/down...

Re: Looming natural gas shortages has the EU scrambling for solutions

#395
post #386

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There are no breakaway republics? The majority of people in Crimea did not wish to rejoin Russia? All people on what is (formerly now) Ukraine territory were happy with the post coup Ukrainian government? Is that what you are saying? If not, what exactly of my point do you take issue with? The claims on Russia geo strategical intent? The history of invasions into Russia through Ukraine in fairly recent times? That Cr…

> There are no breakaway republics?. There are Russian backed terrorists that are temporarily occupying Ukrainian territory, these terrorists shot down a civilian airliner and killed hundreds. > The majority of people in Crimea did not wish to rejoin Russia? Theres no been no real referendums so we will never, but the partisan posters that keep appearing in Crimea would suggest that no the majority dont want to join…

The denial of reality has not been working very well so far for you. Neither has the craziness and hostility. At what point do you realize this? When you have no coastline and another 100K dead? Or will it take millions in big urban centers and widespread starvation?

Re: Looming natural gas shortages has the EU scrambling for solutions

#396
post #375

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It is so ridiculous that you can read https://www.jhuapl.edu/Content/documents/ARIS_LittleGreenMen... for an unclassified report from the US government about Russia's disinformation campaign and the Russian special forces with no insignia who showed up and got the nickname "little green men". You can read https://www.files.ethz.ch/isn/193514/Nuclear%20Backed%20%E2%... for a Polish report on the same, and how Russia u…

There are no breakaway republics? The majority of people in Crimea did not wish to rejoin Russia? All people on what is (formerly now) Ukraine territory were happy with the post coup Ukrainian government? Is that what you are saying? If not, what exactly of my point do you take issue with? The claims on Russia geo strategical intent? The history of invasions into Russia through Ukraine in fairly recent times? That Cr…

You are not even be attempting to discuss this in good faith. You attribute ridiculous statements to me, such as that the breakaway republics do not exist, and there was universal support in Ukraine for Euromaiden, just so you have something to argue against. You throw complex topics such as the Crimea referendum out there. (For the record, the 97% support that Russia claimed is clearly false, but a majority support is probably true. See https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2014_Crimean_status_referendum for more.) And then you disingenuously ask that if I don't disagree with these, which do I disagree with?

Meanwhile you continue to avoid calling Russian genocide by its proper name. You continue to claim that Russia had legal justification. You continue to deny the truth of Russian actions, and continue to blame Ukraine's situation on the West rather than on the country doing the invading.

The truth is that it is a tragedy that Ukrainians are faced with the choice of fighting for their sovereignty or submitting to a genocidal Russian oppression. The record of Russian rule being terrible is supported by extensive history, current events, and ongoing Russian policy. By contrast the specter of Germany launching another invasion through Ukraine is rather ridiculous given the current culture of the German people and government. And Russia wore that excuse rather thin after using it to justify decades of tyranny over the Eastern Bloc during the cold war.

I wish you would portray my position honestly, engage with the truth of Russian crimes, and start accepting facts. I also wish you wouldn't support a genocidal dictatorship.

Re: Looming natural gas shortages has the EU scrambling for solutions

#397
post #386

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> There are no breakaway republics?. There are Russian backed terrorists that are temporarily occupying Ukrainian territory, these terrorists shot down a civilian airliner and killed hundreds. > The majority of people in Crimea did not wish to rejoin Russia? Theres no been no real referendums so we will never, but the partisan posters that keep appearing in Crimea would suggest that no the majority dont want to join…

The denial of reality has not been working very well so far for you. Neither has the craziness and hostility. At what point do you realize this? When you have no coastline and another 100K dead? Or will it take millions in big urban centers and widespread starvation?

The denial of reality? The reality is that Russia failed miserably at there noted first goal (regime change in Ukraine) suffered such a resounding loss that they withdrew there army from a axis of the war because they where being decimated.

Keep in mind Kyiv is only 50km from the border with Russia, and Russia failed to take it. This was has less been about a denial of reality and really been about seeing just how much a paper tiger the Russian armed forces are, turns out they are worse then pretty much anyone expected.

If Russia is doing so well why are there own propagandist and military complaining about how well Ukraine is striking there C&C and ammo depots?.

Why has Russia made so little gains in the past two weeks?.

Russia has already failed the only question is how badly there loses get before they leave.

That’s the question, how many dead Russian soldiers, how many more ships from the Black Sea fleet have to sink, how many more helicopters and planes have to crash and how many more tanks need to cook off?.

> Or will it take millions in big urban centers and widespread starvation?

The intentional starvation of urban centres certainly sounds like genocide to me, and you really have to ask yourself what kind of capable military acts like this?. Russian threatens because it’s there only option, if they could they would of taken Ukraine already.

Re: Looming natural gas shortages has the EU scrambling for solutions

#398
post #386

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There are no breakaway republics? The majority of people in Crimea did not wish to rejoin Russia? All people on what is (formerly now) Ukraine territory were happy with the post coup Ukrainian government? Is that what you are saying? If not, what exactly of my point do you take issue with? The claims on Russia geo strategical intent? The history of invasions into Russia through Ukraine in fairly recent times? That Cr…

> There are no breakaway republics?. There are Russian backed terrorists that are temporarily occupying Ukrainian territory, these terrorists shot down a civilian airliner and killed hundreds. > The majority of people in Crimea did not wish to rejoin Russia? Theres no been no real referendums so we will never, but the partisan posters that keep appearing in Crimea would suggest that no the majority dont want to join…

One correction. The partisan posters suggest that there are people who are strongly against the Russian occupation. But actual polling says that there probably was strong majority support within Crimea for rejoining Russia. After 8 years of Russian propaganda, I would bet that the actual support is now higher. People become (at least temporarily) loyal to their abusers. It is not unlike Stockholm syndrome, and is often seen after, for instance, domestic violence.

See https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2014_Crimean_status_referendum... for more.

Re: Looming natural gas shortages has the EU scrambling for solutions

#399
post #397

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The denial of reality has not been working very well so far for you. Neither has the craziness and hostility. At what point do you realize this? When you have no coastline and another 100K dead? Or will it take millions in big urban centers and widespread starvation?

The denial of reality? The reality is that Russia failed miserably at there noted first goal (regime change in Ukraine) suffered such a resounding loss that they withdrew there army from a axis of the war because they where being decimated. Keep in mind Kyiv is only 50km from the border with Russia, and Russia failed to take it. This was has less been about a denial of reality and really been about seeing just how mu…

Correction. Kyiv is about 380 km from the Russian border. You're thinking of the Belarusian border. But Belarus and Russia are not (yet) one country.

Re: Looming natural gas shortages has the EU scrambling for solutions

#400
post #386

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> There are no breakaway republics?. There are Russian backed terrorists that are temporarily occupying Ukrainian territory, these terrorists shot down a civilian airliner and killed hundreds. > The majority of people in Crimea did not wish to rejoin Russia? Theres no been no real referendums so we will never, but the partisan posters that keep appearing in Crimea would suggest that no the majority dont want to join…

The denial of reality has not been working very well so far for you. Neither has the craziness and hostility. At what point do you realize this? When you have no coastline and another 100K dead? Or will it take millions in big urban centers and widespread starvation?

Claims that I'm denying reality by someone who clearly is denying reality lacks any sting.

Examples.

- Offering well-sourced factual claims is not craziness.

- I'm not Ukrainian. I assure you that the California coast is not under any current threat.

- The military facts on the ground say that Russia cannot successfully take much more territory than it already has, and is extremely unlikely to be able to sustain what it has already taken.

- You are continuing to ignore the very real issues that I raised about genocide, etc.

Here is a fact for you to consider. Russia lost the Cold War in part because they didn't have the economy to be a counterweight to the USA. And economic trends have not gone in their favor. By GDP, Russia last year was only slightly more important than Florida. Thanks to sanctions, they are rapidly reducing in geopolitical importance. Not fast enough, I grant. But they aren't in a sustainable position.

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