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Andrej Karpathy leaves Tesla

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Re: Andrej Karpathy leaves Tesla

#391

Post by dham »

adverbly wrote: post #240
dham wrote: post #148

I've really gotten into self driving the past couple years. Watched every video I can find on it. Got a Toyota Rav 4 bought a Comma 2 then later a Comma 3. Really enjoy Comma AI as a product on the highway and some in town. That being said, self driving in city streets is a problem that literally doesn't exist. On highway you can relax, mostly because the car is keeping a straight line and not much is happening. As s…

You're mostly right about long distance commuting/travel... but FSD in cities is needed for trucking/delivery/taxis to be fully automated. If you need to pay for a driver to drive then a lot of value is going to be left on the table still.

It's starting to look like we'll need general intelligence AI to solve self driving fully within cities. For trucking, let AI solve the long distance stuff, then have drivers drive the last few miles. I don't know if it would work but worth thinking about. That seems like a much closer thing than having AI negotiating an 18 wheeler through a city

Re: Andrej Karpathy leaves Tesla

#392

Post by steveBK123 »

coenhyde wrote: post #314
steveBK123 wrote: post #295

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I was with you in my 4 years of Tesla ownership but having researched & sampled the competition I just can't agree anymore. Tesla has gone down a cul-de-sac with FSD to the point that there's plenty of equally competent highway "self driving", which is all 99% of people actually need/want. Further Tesla is extremely focussed on SKU minimization .. very few models with very few options. Tesla only has 4 cars which are…

Tesla is focused on unit production, SKU minimization is a side effect. They are supply contained. Why make additional models of cars if you can sell more of the ones you already make instead? There's more than enough demand to support their limited SKU's, high price points and current production; for the moment. When Tesla manages to cap out on their demand, they can lower prices and introduce more models. But when…

Maybe? But cars are like fashion. Demand can change more rapidly than Tesla can design, announce, and scale production of new models to fill all the gaps in their model line.

Once competitors can ship in higher volumes at the Model 3/Y price points then they can readjust pricing quickly of course.

Look at the Model S right now, if you want a Plaid you can essentially have it RIGHT NOW, there's even a few inventory cars popping up periodically. For the Model 3/Y, if you go with performance model, again you can have it in weeks like in normal times. To me this looks like demand at the high end is cooling off for Tesla.

Re: Andrej Karpathy leaves Tesla

#393

Post by bsaul »

jimmydorry wrote: post #371
bsaul wrote: post #370

Earlier quoted context omitted.

ML approach for FSD was critized right from the start by mobileeye CEO who gave a very thorough talk on why that couldn't possibly work. I think the talk is still on youtube. The guy was critized for being old school and not having adapted to the latest tech (including by elon musk when he dumped mobileeye), but in fact he was just plain right. i think the tech community owes him an apology.

Until any FSD solution delivers, it's far too early to vindicate the mobileye CEO. As it stands, even with additional (expensive) sensors, it seems very likely that ML will be required regardless. Running purely off sensors is not going to be feasible when braking distances alone are greater than the sensors will be able to accurately measure.

He did give a second talk a few years later explaining how the purely cognitive aspect may be handled by ML, and the total system probably going to end up being a mix.

But his fundamental opposition to ML for things related to safety was, IMHO absolutely correct.

Re: Andrej Karpathy leaves Tesla

#394

Post by dekhn »

uoaei wrote: post #347
dekhn wrote: post #159

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is a dance move known as the "tenderloin lurch". Well, not really, the Tenderloin Lurch is when a person staggers up to a crosswalk, waits until they have a NO WALK sign and proceeds to cross, while ignoring all the drivers who about to run them over.

I sincerely hope you are not this unpleasant in social settings.

when I float that joke in social settings in SF, everybody nods sagely

Re: Andrej Karpathy leaves Tesla

#395

Post by elif »

asdajksah2123 wrote: post #390
elif wrote: post #388

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I wouldn't call it fraud. I bought it knowing it was in beta and with no timeline for production release. They haven't represented it as anything more than that. Being along for the journey is a big part of why I decided to pay.

Elon Musk has literally said in a public conference keynote that robotaxis would be running in 2019, and earning Tesla owners 30k/yr since 3 years ago, and that it would be financially foolish to buy anything but a Tesla.

Can you cite that? I've heard lots of those claims repeated but never first-hand

Re: Andrej Karpathy leaves Tesla

#396

Post by shaklee3 »

elkos wrote: post #368
shaklee3 wrote: post #321

Earlier quoted context omitted.

he's been doing it on starlink too, but he gets a pass on HN for that one.

Do elaborate please. I always get that feeling but I'm not able to put it in words.

I've elaborated and gotten shouted down enough on the old threads that it's not worth repeating the whole thing. tldr:

1) the beams are not full, so many users are getting unrealistic service since they're not doing traffic shaping in those areas yet.

2) the areas that are full are seeing significantly worse speeds and latencies. see Reddit.

3) Elon said 4) it's not financially viable without many more users, higher costs, and cheaper launches.

Re: Andrej Karpathy leaves Tesla

#397

Post by shaklee3 »

sebzim4500 wrote: post #374
shaklee3 wrote: post #321

Earlier quoted context omitted.

he's been doing it on starlink too, but he gets a pass on HN for that one.

Isn't starlink pretty good though? I'm in a city, but I know people in rural areas that rave about it.

starlink is great for some. my comments aren't necessarily about whether it's overall good or not: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=32095920

Re: Andrej Karpathy leaves Tesla

#398

Post by mathverse »

tooltalk wrote: post #354
jeffbee wrote: post #39

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If I have to pick a side in the battle of who can produce the most cheap batteries, an insane Twitter addict or state-controlled industries of South Korea, I'm going with the Koreans.

Hyundai Motor Group is state-controlled? You mean like GM?

He mixed that up with Chinese corporations. Korean chaebols are more like "state endorsed monopolies". Or state "you can get away with almost anything corporations because you make a large chunk of our GDP and employ a lot of people".

That said...I would bet on koreans too.

Re: Andrej Karpathy leaves Tesla

#399

Post by toss1 »

rsynnott wrote: post #45
impulser_ wrote: post #8

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yeah, but Google's vision + lidar tech also doesn't seem any better at solving it either. They have been working on this problem the longest and they aren't even confident enough to produce a product with it. Google is probably the leader in AI and AI research. They are also the leader in data and mapping. They have billions of cash to play with. Yet it seem like they haven't gotten any closer at solving this problem…

> Any reason why everyone seems to be stuck on this problem? Because it's really, really difficult. A lot of AI-ish stuff pretty rapidly gets to the point where it _looks_ quite impressive, but struggles to make the jump to actual feasibility. Like, there were convincing demos of voice recognition in the mid-90s. You could buy software to transcribe voice on your home computer, and people did. And, now, well, it's be…

I'd argue that voice recognition is in a worse place now — It creates a FALSE sense that it can do a good transcription, when it is actually corrupted in the worst way.

I took part in a legal deposition where an "AI Transcription Software" was being used. When I received the transcript it had numerous errors, but they were all subtle. More common names were inserted in place of the name that I said, e.g., "Kennedy" instead of "Kemeny". "You have a [something]" was transcribed as "I have a [something]", completely reversing the meaning. And many more errors.

The common thread between the errors was that what was inserted into the transcript would have been the MOST EXPECTED word or phrase, instead of the ACTUAL MORE SURPRISING (surprising in an information-theory way) word or phrase. It's evident that on top of the phoneme recognition layer, this transcription software checked questionable items against tables/graphs of most likely words to occur near the other words it confidently identified in that context. Makes a transcription sound great, but it is WRONG.

The result was that the "AI Transcription" actively destroyed key information and hid that destruction under the guise of a smoothly edited transcription.

Although this surely was not the intent of the system's creators, I cannot think of a better way to make a more evil transcription system.

Re: Andrej Karpathy leaves Tesla

#400

Post by greedo »

elif wrote: post #387
FireBeyond wrote: post #319

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I think they are minimum 3 years away from anything exciting beta I think that's optimistic. Ten plus years. There's too many exceptions. In my home town, an intersection. Imagine, if you will: Traveling westbound there's four straight ahead lanes. There's a traffic light for each straight lane. The traffic lights will alternate "left two straight, green; right two straight red" and then "left two straight, red; ri…

If the pavement is clearly marked i would give it a good chance. We have a 6-way intersection with similar lighting that it succeeds at... Other than completely and recklessly disregarding the clearly visible "no turn on red" sign. We also have a road with a reversible lane in the middle. Thankfully it recognizes the red X sign for this. Unfortunately, if it's driving for 11 seconds without seeing anothee, it will su…

Relying on pavement being clearly marked is untenable.
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