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Estonia, allies to trigger NATO Article 4

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Re: Estonia, allies to trigger NATO Article 4

#391

Post by [deleted] »

cm2187 wrote: post #215
jl6 wrote: post #121

https://oec.world/en/profile/country/rus Russia’s exports are >50% oil and gas products. The biggest retaliation the West can make right now is a commitment to a rapid exit at unprecedented speed from the oil economy, in favor of renewables.

How do you do that? The reason europe needs russian gas is precisely because renewables are very intermittent, and they use gas to compensate. More renewable means more reliance on gas, unless you build nuclear plants. And if you do, you might as well not build renewables because the cost of nuclear is pretty much the same whether you use it or not.

[deleted]

Re: Estonia, allies to trigger NATO Article 4

#392

Post by hamsamrma »

dependsontheq wrote: post #347
vetinari wrote: post #315

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> No, it does not. A number of Eastern Europe countries are in NATO and none of them have American nuclear weapons. Yet. There were murmurs about moving them from Germany to Eastern Europe. Additionally - US has DCAs (Defense Cooperation Agreement; straightly bilateral, nothing to do with NATO) with most EE countries. Nobody knows, what they brought there, US is certainly not telling anyone. The nukes might be alread…

There are no ICBMS in Germany only tactical bombs... these have no military value, there only value is to say that European countries have shared nuclear deterrence. And Russia is big, they have an immense second strike capability from land and from the sea. Wladiwostok is 8000km away from Kiev.

I agree with your sentiment, but to say that a weapon capable of creating a Coloseum-sized crater has "no military value" seems a bit off.

On the other hand i cannot think of a critical role played by ICBM's in Central Europe, could your share some insights?

Re: Estonia, allies to trigger NATO Article 4

#393

Post by kkjjkgjjgg »

throwaway5752 wrote: post #2

https://valitsus.ee/en/news/estonian-government-requests-con... People are minimizing this, based on the word "consultation". Don't be fooled, this is grave news, even though it is not Article 5. Article 5 invocation under these circumstances have substantial risk of full scale thermonuclear exchange.

Ukraine is not in the Nato, so I don't think Nato would consider launching nukes to defend it.

Re: Estonia, allies to trigger NATO Article 4

#394

Post by periheli0n »

ed_balls wrote: post #223
nomercy400 wrote: post #131

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Like Russia cares. They have a growing, energy-hungering neighbor (China) buying their gas in the east, and a Europe committed to reduce their gas and oil usage in the next 10 years in the west.

They care deeply. China is >10x in pretty much everything. They don't to be a vassal state of China. Russia has lost the independence twice - threat from Asia and threat for united countries between Moscow and Berlin. I'd speculate the whole action is to force the West to a new deal with Russia, so they can balance China.

> I'd speculate the whole action is to force the West to a new deal with Russia, so they can balance China.

I think any trust that Russia still enjoyed in the west is gone as of today. A few days ago the official Russian position was "Nobody is planning an invasion of Ukraine." Today, Russia has invaded Ukraine. This is not how you make deals.

Re: Estonia, allies to trigger NATO Article 4

#395

Post by [deleted] »

Hokusai wrote: post #11

This reminds me of each time people criticises the European Union for "condemning" something. Big organizations do things step by step. First you talk, then you act. Even Russia prepared a prerecorded pantomime of a discussion before acting. This are the gears moving and is no small thing, it sends a message and prepares for the worse.

[deleted]

Re: Estonia, allies to trigger NATO Article 4

#396

Post by CamperBob2 »

hef19898 wrote: post #226
awb wrote: post #191

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yes and no. Yes, countries prefer weak neighbors. A powerful alliance on your border is a potential threat (or deterrent to expansion). No in the sense that the US only has 90k troops in NATO countries, or about 10% of Russia’s standing military. So it’s not like troops are messing at their border or enough to threaten an invasion. It’s very much a deterrent. Also no in that the US, Russia and China are nuclear power…

Well, the Cuban Missile Crisis might have word regarding enemy troops close to the US mainland.

NATO is a defensive alliance made up of many independent sovereign nations, all of whom freely asked for and were granted membership. Don't want conflict with NATO? Easy, don't attack any of their members. Seems simple enough.

Cuba was a Soviet client state, and installing missiles there was clearly an offensive act.

Re: Estonia, allies to trigger NATO Article 4

#397

Post by pmontra »

vetinari wrote: post #296
raducu wrote: post #275

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Russia does not care about Ukraine joining NATO, Russia has nukes. Russian politicians care about Ukraine being a prospering democracy and a model for russian citizens. That's it.

In order to use nukes effectively, you need to have second strike capabilities. You know, the 'M' in 'MAD'. Ukraine in NATO means US nukes on Russia border, tipping the balance. It would be similar to Russia placing their bases and weapons into Canada or Mexico.

Nuclear submarines are there to launch from as close to the coasts of the enemy as possible. Land bases are nice to have but not so important for ICBMs.

Re: Estonia, allies to trigger NATO Article 4

#398

Post by amcoastal »

vetinari wrote: post #315
mopsi wrote: post #305

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Ukraine in NATO means US nukes on Russia border, tipping the balance. No, it does not. A number of Eastern European countries are in NATO and none of them have American nuclear weapons. Where does this silly idea come that after joining NATO, American missiles somehow appear in the new member? Modern-day NATO is a cooperation platform for joint exercises etc, not some missile club that starts delivering ICBMs every…

> No, it does not. A number of Eastern Europe countries are in NATO and none of them have American nuclear weapons. Yet. There were murmurs about moving them from Germany to Eastern Europe. Additionally - US has DCAs (Defense Cooperation Agreement; straightly bilateral, nothing to do with NATO) with most EE countries. Nobody knows, what they brought there, US is certainly not telling anyone. The nukes might be alread…

I wonder why they are considering moving those? Hmm? You should be ashamed of parroting Russian propaganda at this time.

Re: Estonia, allies to trigger NATO Article 4

#399

Post by gadders »

wiz21c wrote: post #118

Why does Putin try to invade parts of Ukraine ? What's its interest ? Is it economical ? is it for interior politics ? is it to destabilize Europe ? does someone can conjecture a bit ?

Because despite agreements to the contrary, NATO keeps trying to expand into Ukraine.

Re: Estonia, allies to trigger NATO Article 4

#400

Post by tomp »

jl6 wrote: post #121

https://oec.world/en/profile/country/rus Russia’s exports are >50% oil and gas products. The biggest retaliation the West can make right now is a commitment to a rapid exit at unprecedented speed from the oil economy, in favor of renewables.

Renewables are the reason we’re still dependent on dictatorship-sourced fossil fuels in the first place.
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