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Cruise is opening driverless cars to the public in San Francisco

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Re: Cruise is opening driverless cars to the public in San Francisco

#391

Post by walrus01 »

gooseus wrote: post #264
bloodyplonker22 wrote: post #154

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's good to hear a CEO say "we don't know the answer, but we're making a bet" rather than the typical Elizabeth Holmes style "We are absolutely correct and first they ignore you, then they laugh at you, then they fight you, then you get convicted of three counts of wire fraud and go to prison".

"This is a solved problem.", "We're light-years ahead of the competition", or "We expect everyone with existing hardware to be able to monetize their cars as robo-taxis by the end of next year" are other great examples.

to be fair, this is because Elizabeth Holmes is probably a sociopath, so you'd expect to hear something overly confident like that from such. Not that we knew it at the time.

Re: Cruise is opening driverless cars to the public in San Francisco

#393

Post by _delirium »

tpudlik wrote: post #383
pvsnp wrote: post #283

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Parent organization is still General Motors, they just operate independently

There must be a little more to this, since clearly they are not a wholly owned subsidiary.

According to the most recent SEC filing I can find with an explicit ownership percentage, "As of June 30, 2019, external investors held 17.1% of the fully diluted equity in GM Cruise Holdings." [1] Presumably that means GM as the parent company owned 82.9%.

[1] https://investor.gm.com/node/19751/html

Re: Cruise is opening driverless cars to the public in San Francisco

#394

Post by ladon86 »

walrus01 wrote: post #391
gooseus wrote: post #264

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"This is a solved problem.", "We're light-years ahead of the competition", or "We expect everyone with existing hardware to be able to monetize their cars as robo-taxis by the end of next year" are other great examples.

to be fair, this is because Elizabeth Holmes is probably a sociopath, so you'd expect to hear something overly confident like that from such. Not that we knew it at the time.

Yes, but all of those quotes are by Elon Musk…

Re: Cruise is opening driverless cars to the public in San Francisco

#395

Post by Retric »

blahblarblar wrote: post #315
gitfan86 wrote: post #101

Earlier quoted context omitted.

But are you using confirmation bias to find a cognitive bias that fits here. But, In all seriousness we don't have access to the data across all 60k FSD users to know what the intervention rate is and how it has been changing over time.

Dirty Tesla used to track these stats in his testing and gave up because “it’s not changing”

Which could be a sign some drivers are simply overly cautious. Suppose 1/10 of disconnects prevented a crash, reducing the risk of crashing to 0 only reduces the number of disconnects by 10%.

To actually reduce that number you would need to make drivers feel more confident in the vehicle which is a useful metric, but only indirectly relating to safety.

Re: Cruise is opening driverless cars to the public in San Francisco

#396

Post by mdoms »

belter wrote: post #204
comex wrote: post #60

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The human accident rate is about one per 500K miles, so if they were able to get in that range, then yes, they would have succeeded; drivers would be able to stop paying attention to the road without putting themselves and others in danger. But the current FSD beta's intervention rate is more like one per 10 miles, judging from some quick googling. I see no particular reason to assume that incremental improvement can…

As it can't solve this in 2022 (video at correct time): https://youtu.be/wTybjJj0ptw?t=238 Or even worst, just managing an empty intersection (video at correct time): https://youtu.be/wTybjJj0ptw?t=280 At which point releasing software so bad, becomes a criminal liability? Another one at correct time: https://youtu.be/wTybjJj0ptw?t=652 There are simply no words...Correct time: https://youtu.be/wTybjJj0ptw?t=722 Shoul…

That looks like an incredibly stressful way to drive.

Re: Cruise is opening driverless cars to the public in San Francisco

#397

Post by splonk »

kfarr wrote: post #174
more_corn wrote: post #86

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I once threw myself in front of a cruise vehicle to test it for safety. (That’s a bit of an exaggeration, I saw it coming, sped up and jumped into an open parking spot on a trajectory that would take me in front of I didn’t stop) It performed admirably. The safety driver didn’t see me coming but the computer did. The car decelerated to the point it would be able to stop if I kept coming. The safety driver couldn’t fi…

Can confirm from personal experience in crosswalks with self driving cars: cruise is the most timid (read safest!) of the self driving cars being tested in SF IMHO. Cruise will proactively alter trajectory (such as deceleration) for pedestrians and cyclists at a noticeably earlier threshold than Waymo. This is much more pleasant for everyone surrounding the vehicle as it clearly expresses that you have been recognize…

I live in a part of San Francisco that has a lot of self driving car testing, and I generally agree with this. I'm not saying that I think Cruise's cars are good at driving, but all their errors that I see appear to err on the side of being slow, albeit sometimes to an almost laughable degree. Sometimes it's actually unsafe when you're driving behind them as they'll randomly slam on the brakes for no obvious reason, but I was taught to leave enough following distance and to pay attention to the road. (Still, I bet they get rear-ended a lot.)

That said, I'm probably not signing up for this.

Re: Cruise is opening driverless cars to the public in San Francisco

#398

Post by Retric »

jowday wrote: post #360
gonehome wrote: post #349

Earlier quoted context omitted.

My knowledge only comes from Karpathy's talks about this (which are great, worth watching if you haven't seen them). I found his and Tesla's arguments convincing for the general case. That doesn't mean that the narrow cases aren't super cool or valuable (I signed up for this Cruise thing in SF). I just think that if the software is unable to make decisions based on visual data alone without up to date high resolution…

> I just think that if the software is unable to make decisions based on visual data alone without up to date high resolution maps it'll never achieve true FSD in the general case (not geo locked). You'll end up trapped in a local max otherwise because there are just too many conditions in the real world that vary. My contention is that there’s no way to actually solve for the general case with currently existing tec…

Novelty isn’t nearly as big of a problem as you might think. One of Wamo’s famous videos was someone on an electric scooter chasing a duck in the middle of the street. That’s very odd behavior, but the car followed the rather simple option of just not hitting them and going forward when possible.

Cars really don’t need to identify what something is just it’s location and movement which is a vastly easier problem. A trash can rolling down the street can be treated just like an oil drum doing the same thing etc.

Re: Cruise is opening driverless cars to the public in San Francisco

#399

Post by walrus01 »

ladon86 wrote: post #394
walrus01 wrote: post #391

Earlier quoted context omitted.

to be fair, this is because Elizabeth Holmes is probably a sociopath, so you'd expect to hear something overly confident like that from such. Not that we knew it at the time.

Yes, but all of those quotes are by Elon Musk…

True. I actually replied to the entirely wrong comment, should have been one up... I have a great deal more confidence in truly revolutionary things that have been factually delivered by SpaceX (such as 100+ re-uses of a rocket first stage now), and I question how much of that is really due to Musk at all. Maybe Musk as a figurehead. I wonder if all of the Elon fanboys know that much of what's been accomplished at SpaceX is thanks to Gwynne Shotwell, or even know who she is.

Things like promising "full self driving" for 6+ years now and charging people $12500 for it leave a really bad taste in my mouth and I find it difficult to square with my overall very positive impression of spacex.

Re: Cruise is opening driverless cars to the public in San Francisco

#400

Post by toomuchtodo »

14 wrote: post #280
ytdytvhxgydvhh wrote: post #265

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I wonder about that. The top maintenance issue that comes to my mind is sufficient tread on tires. Bald tires will still work great on dry streets but as soon as it starts raining, you start skidding. I honestly don’t know if software could intervene quickly and reliably enough there.

The software could require a trip to the dealer for a visual inspection of the tires at set intervals. Hopefully free of charge for something so simple. A quick hookup to the computer and the interval is reset.

Tesla vehicles can detect and notify the driver of tires with low tread remaining. It's detected by a delta in rotation speed between other tires and the tire needing replacement. Seems like a software implementation is straightforward.

https://driveteslacanada.ca/software-updates/your-tesla-can-...

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