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Evergrande teeters on edge of default as $148M payment falls due

reuters.com

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Re: Evergrande teeters on edge of default as $148M payment falls due

#391

Post by dash2 »

BoiledCabbage wrote: post #378
dash2 wrote: post #368

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The guy down the road from me got his flat as a human right. He throws his empty bottles on to the street where I have to walk my dog. The rumour is his sister is also in there and is on the game. His behaviour is making the guy who lives beneath him not sleep at night. The housing association has given up "trying to support him to change his behaviour" and is now taking him to court. By the end of the year, we all h…

Sounds like he's an ass. And if he paid rent he'd still be an ass. It's not a magic cure for what's wrong with him.

To an extent. But if you give asses free money, that doesn't tend to change their behaviour.

Re: Evergrande teeters on edge of default as $148M payment falls due

#392

Post by seanmcdirmid »

whimsicalism wrote: post #380
seanmcdirmid wrote: post #330

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You can go visit Kangbashi (Ordos's new distrcit) today (well, when China opens again) if you want to see a ghost city. Kangbashi will fill up as soon as coal becomes popular in China again, which is probably never. Or even closer to Beijing in Tianjin's new financial district. Actually, the tallest building in China is an incomplete sky scraper in Tianjin ( https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Goldin_Finance_117 ), which h…

I don't think an unbuilt tower is as crazy as you think it is. There are tons of unfinished projects scattered throughout the West. I actually was just next to a massive one (not in the US but in Europe) the other day. > You can go visit Kangbashi (Ordos's new distrcit) today (well, when China opens again) if you want to see a ghost city. Kangbashi will fill up as soon as coal becomes popular in China again, which is…

> I don't think an unbuilt tower is as crazy as you think it is.

Every time I've visited Tianjin, I've seen a derelict half built sky scraper. The first time I visited was in 1999. What is up with that city?

> There are tons of unfinished projects scattered throughout the West.

In the USA? There are none, not sky scrapers. Maybe that half built Huawei facility in Wisconsin?

> I actually was just next to a massive one (not in the US but in Europe)

Great! Eastern or Western Europe?

> If you read the article I posted, Kangbashi is specifically the district under discussion - it is no longer empty, actively building new apartments due to demand.

Kangbashi was originally specced for a few million people. It has...maybe a hundred thousand now? The streets are still pretty empty compared to the rest of Urban Ordos.

> Coal didn't become popular again, but they moved the top schools of the province into the area.

They moved one top school to the area. Will it be enough? Can you make a city by relocating a few middle school and university campuses? That only gives you so much growth.

Re: Evergrande teeters on edge of default as $148M payment falls due

#393

Post by Y_Y »

resource0x wrote: post #312
riggins wrote: post #161

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Name 1 example of a currency crisis where the debtor nation had debt denominated in their own currency. I'll save you the time. There are no examples. Every currency crisis has debt denominated in a foreign currency. - Germany in the 1930 (WW1 reparations were gold marks) - Argetina (foreign borrow and currency peg to USD). - Thailand. - Turkey (now, borrowed in Euro). https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/War_reparations "G…

If US prints 100 trillion dollars tomorrow (debt fully monetized by Federal Reserve), won't it cause a currency crisis?

Because of the trillions of dollars they'd have to spend on ink refill cartridges?

Re: Evergrande teeters on edge of default as $148M payment falls due

#394

Post by shagie »

viro wrote: post #387
Robotbeat wrote: post #347

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> The United States government defaulting on any amount of its debt would be really really really stupid policy. Also arguably unconstitutional

>Also arguably unconstitutional Umm how?

The 14th amendment, section 4.

https://constitution.congress.gov/browse/essay/amdt14_S4_1_1...

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fourteenth_Amendment_to_the_Un...

Re: Evergrande teeters on edge of default as $148M payment falls due

#395

Post by MR4D »

Gatsky wrote: post #363
JamisonM wrote: post #280

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Absolutely crazy that the top comment on this story is a "USD short squeeze" idea after 5 hours. These amounts, 200 million, 150 million USD.. this is peanuts, a fart in the wind. PROTIP: Anyone like Lyn Alden that is offering premium stock tips is by definition a fraud, if you can beat the markets you just beat the markets and Scrooge McDuck-it, you don't run a damn newsletter.

This ‘protip’ is quite wrong on many levels. Observe the behaviour of the most successful investors, and you will notice they write books, go on podcasts, talk about their strategies etc all the time. In fact you can’t shut them up. The world’s most successful investor, the biggest ‘Scrooge McDuck’ of them all, has completely public disclosures. On the contrary, the worst advice comes from people who have no accounta…

But they talk about them after the trade. And therein lies the trick.

Re: Evergrande teeters on edge of default as $148M payment falls due

#396

Post by johnny22 »

roody15 wrote: post #372
asdff wrote: post #336

Earlier quoted context omitted.

US has spent the last 20 years testing technology in a real theater. China shoots at props in the desert. Russia can't afford to even play this game.

Recent history would suggest otherwise.

there is no recent history of conventional warfare. It's all guerilla stuff.

Re: Evergrande teeters on edge of default as $148M payment falls due

#397

Post by JamisonM »

blihp wrote: post #304
JamisonM wrote: post #280

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Absolutely crazy that the top comment on this story is a "USD short squeeze" idea after 5 hours. These amounts, 200 million, 150 million USD.. this is peanuts, a fart in the wind. PROTIP: Anyone like Lyn Alden that is offering premium stock tips is by definition a fraud, if you can beat the markets you just beat the markets and Scrooge McDuck-it, you don't run a damn newsletter.

That's a $150 million payment that they can't make. The concern is how are they going to make the future payments? Their total liabilities are on the order of $300 billion. Fantasia (mentioned in the story) is another China real estate developer in trouble. The concern is that this is the tip of the iceberg.

All of which is unrelated to the idea of some sort of /global/ USD short squeeze, which is just a nonsense idea.

Holding debt in another nation's currency involves risks but it is also the case that bond issuers can mitigate that risk with financial tools at the time of borrowing. It is doubly true that the CNY has and still is trading within a narrow band over the life of these debts, currency risks are not a factor in this story in any way.

Re: Evergrande teeters on edge of default as $148M payment falls due

#398

Post by BoiledCabbage »

jessaustin wrote: post #374
BoiledCabbage wrote: post #305

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I can't tell if this is a joke or you are serious. Can you clarify?

OP makes a complicated allegation. I don't care enough about the allegation to devote the mental effort to understand it or to determine if the source cited is bogus. Generally I have more regard for the opinions of careful thinkers. Pasting an untidy URL is a sign of sloppy thinking.

> Pasting an untidy URL is a sign of sloppy thinking.

Thanks, you answered all I need to know with this comment here. Judging the validity of OPs argument based on your personal dislike of amp in a url.

Re: Evergrande teeters on edge of default as $148M payment falls due

#399

Post by justicezyx »

rp1 wrote: post #379
jessaustin wrote: post #374

Earlier quoted context omitted.

OP makes a complicated allegation. I don't care enough about the allegation to devote the mental effort to understand it or to determine if the source cited is bogus. Generally I have more regard for the opinions of careful thinkers. Pasting an untidy URL is a sign of sloppy thinking.

Or I’m on a cellphone????

Assuming that you are trolling, one advice in this situation is that you can curb the urge to post something on your phone, which restricted your flexibility and causes the tendance to post things with little context and concrete meaning, and wait until you have access to the right tool for expressing yourself.

It is not easy.

At the spot of seeing something that you feel strongly, it's an exercise of strong will to actually have a clear mind and use rationality to communicate.

Emotion is the fuel of mental activity. It likes to explode. The mind's role is to place it on steady pace, and generate power that actually changed things, instead of just exploding on spot.

Re: Evergrande teeters on edge of default as $148M payment falls due

#400

Post by whatever1 »

leppr wrote: post #351
whatever1 wrote: post #143

Earlier quoted context omitted.

No this rule does not apply in the US. The US has printed 20% of all dollars ever existed since 2020. Check the exchange rates with any other currency, EUR, British sterling, Chinese RMB. Did it become cheaper? Of course not. We will always buy USD, because it has as a collateral 8billion lives.

The reason it hasn't fallen against those other currencies is that the other currencies' supplies have increased more during this period. The printing was global, and the US not a leader on it. Against everything else than other unlimited supply currencies, fiat money has fallen dramatically. It's a simple fact, not an endorsement of anything. Everyone knows the basic mechanics of supply and demand on price, but some…

You are plain wrong.

Check the most widely accepted scarce commodity: gold. Gold/USD prices are now at the level they were in 2012.

Now if your argument is based on the USD price of Shiba Inu, well I have news for you.

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