Earlier quoted context omitted.
We backed out of working with a builder because price went up about $100k over the course of 3 months earlier in 2021. There is no way that was justified , lumber and supply chains notwithstanding. I respect his right to maximize profits in this market, but I won’t be part of it.
Unfortunately I suspect it'll never be cheaper to build.
Lumber crash leads to 'blowout' sales as prices crater
391–400 of 553 posts
Re: Lumber crash leads to 'blowout' sales as prices crater
#392I’ve been following these prices closely for most of the year and what’s striking to me is just how wrong nearly all the industry experts were throughout the year. I don’t recall reading a single opinion that was anything other than “prices will remain very high for the foreseeable future.”
I heard an economist once say that "The best cure for high prices is high prices." i.e. - when prices get that high, new people enter the market and the price drops. Or people lower their prices to try and capture market share.
Re: Lumber crash leads to 'blowout' sales as prices crater
#393Earlier quoted context omitted.
Developer who owns an excavator, track skid steer, dump trailer here. Probably a wet lot...
Check out Andrew Camarata on youtube. My favorite youtube channel. He's a guy who worked for USPS and wanted to build a metal building on an undeveloped lot so he bought a backhoe, then an excavator, then a dumptruck, then a crane, etc. He buys all his equipment used and maintains it all himself. He quit USPS a long time ago and does work for hire with his equipment now that he has it all.
Re: Lumber crash leads to 'blowout' sales as prices crater
#394Earlier quoted context omitted.
Someone I know who had their house built took pictures of the construction site every day. That way, if an issue turned up later, he could prove by showing the pics that they forgot to do something or did it in the wrong way.
Then it's too late. Code requirements would prevent all of this. Requiring county inspection to certify insulation install (presence, no gaps) and thickness (R-value) with a post-install test. All of that would increase costs and build time though.
Contractors try to look after each other. Most know enough about other trades to stop and say "this isn't right, are you sure you want me to continue" if someone else did something wrong. But everyone once in a while this fails.
Re: Lumber crash leads to 'blowout' sales as prices crater
#395Earlier quoted context omitted.
I would wait. I'm an licensed inactive General Contractor. If 14 months ago, they were building them for $450,000, I'd wait. I'd shop around for another contractor too. A young guy starting out, might save you a lot. (There's no way to verify he knows what he's doing though.) If you are some what handy, it's not that difficult to owner build your own house. That is if you get the blueprints past the town's council. G…
Why does the USA, The Land of the Free and The Land of Opportunity, have so much bureaucracy? Look, I know fire codes are important, and you don't want a building to crumble in around you, but... Seems the building codes in the US are unnecessarily strict. Is it power hungry bureaucrats or exploitation from contractors that has lead to it? And how can the people be given more liberty to build the way they want?
Re: Lumber crash leads to 'blowout' sales as prices crater
#396Earlier quoted context omitted.
There seems to be a group of people who predict hyperinflation at the drop of a hat. I’m not sure if it’s paranoia or motivated reasoning though. Maybe a mix of both?
I think people predicted hyperinflation since QE has been introduced. What people don't get is that QE increases base money. When banks run out of reserves the central bank gives them more. The reverse relationship doesn't have to hold. Giving banks more reserves does not force them to lend the money out. The relationship between bank lending and base money has been fully decoupled. Whenever QE increases the supply o…
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=GOR4
(Both indexed to 100 as of the beginning of the 2007 recession)
Re: Lumber crash leads to 'blowout' sales as prices crater
#397Earlier quoted context omitted.
Could you elaborate on the high prices? I have a friend who plans on building a container house, and who is convinced that it will be much cheaper than a traditional house. Note that we live in Europe, where homes are build from stone and concrete, not wood and cardboard.
It depends, actually. Container prices are very volatile. If you're in the middle of a crash, a container house can be cheap. GP was correct however in pointing out they aren't particularly good for building houses that are actually nice to live in. EDIT: There's a caveat here. Because containers are trivially transportable, you have lots of options when it comes to assembling off-site that could be kind of nice. For…
Re: Lumber crash leads to 'blowout' sales as prices crater
#398Earlier quoted context omitted.
Check out Andrew Camarata on youtube. My favorite youtube channel. He's a guy who worked for USPS and wanted to build a metal building on an undeveloped lot so he bought a backhoe, then an excavator, then a dumptruck, then a crane, etc. He buys all his equipment used and maintains it all himself. He quit USPS a long time ago and does work for hire with his equipment now that he has it all.
Andrew is where I learned that a regular joe could just buy heavy equipment and do the small excavation jobs contractors wouldn't touch. Sometimes he omits safety measures to the point that it's hard to watch (check out the recent bar sickle mower episode). So it's worthwhile reading the comments to find out what not to do also.
Re: Lumber crash leads to 'blowout' sales as prices crater
#399Earlier quoted context omitted.
who has all this money to spend? everywhere everything is so expensive. i make a ton, and this doesn't add up. nothing about home prices seems to add up.
I've been wondering the same. Apparently, where I live (HCOL) people don't care about ever paying off the full amount, as long as the monthly installment is low. Regulations only require that you paid off 33% of the house value after 15 years. You do need to start at 20% capitalization though, which at current prices means they need to own assets already (market risk), or have bonkers amounts of currency sitting arou…
Re: Lumber crash leads to 'blowout' sales as prices crater
#400its been the most exciting fulfilling adventure of my life so far. just got first harvest last month.