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Lumber crash leads to 'blowout' sales as prices crater

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Re: Lumber crash leads to 'blowout' sales as prices crater

#391
post #243

Earlier quoted context omitted.

We backed out of working with a builder because price went up about $100k over the course of 3 months earlier in 2021. There is no way that was justified , lumber and supply chains notwithstanding. I respect his right to maximize profits in this market, but I won’t be part of it.

Unfortunately I suspect it'll never be cheaper to build.

Maybe not in nominal terms, but does that really matter?

Re: Lumber crash leads to 'blowout' sales as prices crater

#392

I’ve been following these prices closely for most of the year and what’s striking to me is just how wrong nearly all the industry experts were throughout the year. I don’t recall reading a single opinion that was anything other than “prices will remain very high for the foreseeable future.”

I heard an economist once say that "The best cure for high prices is high prices." i.e. - when prices get that high, new people enter the market and the price drops. Or people lower their prices to try and capture market share.

Of all branches of mathematics, science, and engineering, the only people on Earth stupid enough to believe in perpetual exponential growth are economists.

Re: Lumber crash leads to 'blowout' sales as prices crater

#393

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Developer who owns an excavator, track skid steer, dump trailer here. Probably a wet lot...

Check out Andrew Camarata on youtube. My favorite youtube channel. He's a guy who worked for USPS and wanted to build a metal building on an undeveloped lot so he bought a backhoe, then an excavator, then a dumptruck, then a crane, etc. He buys all his equipment used and maintains it all himself. He quit USPS a long time ago and does work for hire with his equipment now that he has it all.

Andrew is where I learned that a regular joe could just buy heavy equipment and do the small excavation jobs contractors wouldn't touch. Sometimes he omits safety measures to the point that it's hard to watch (check out the recent bar sickle mower episode). So it's worthwhile reading the comments to find out what not to do also.

Re: Lumber crash leads to 'blowout' sales as prices crater

#394
post #251

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Someone I know who had their house built took pictures of the construction site every day. That way, if an issue turned up later, he could prove by showing the pics that they forgot to do something or did it in the wrong way.

Then it's too late. Code requirements would prevent all of this. Requiring county inspection to certify insulation install (presence, no gaps) and thickness (R-value) with a post-install test. All of that would increase costs and build time though.

If you do something wrong you need to correct it at your cost, including everything. I've been in framing before and called to move a joist that we put right where the toilet pipe had to be. We moved it, but it was a lot of work to cut all the glue and get it in the place it should have been. (normally joists are a fixed distance apart, but we are supposed to verify on the print before hand that the toilet or other pipe won't land on one). At least the plumber called us - he would be in his right to just cut the joist, and then we would have to fix it after the house failed the final inspection.

Contractors try to look after each other. Most know enough about other trades to stop and say "this isn't right, are you sure you want me to continue" if someone else did something wrong. But everyone once in a while this fails.

Re: Lumber crash leads to 'blowout' sales as prices crater

#395
post #167

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I would wait. I'm an licensed inactive General Contractor. If 14 months ago, they were building them for $450,000, I'd wait. I'd shop around for another contractor too. A young guy starting out, might save you a lot. (There's no way to verify he knows what he's doing though.) If you are some what handy, it's not that difficult to owner build your own house. That is if you get the blueprints past the town's council. G…

Why does the USA, The Land of the Free and The Land of Opportunity, have so much bureaucracy? Look, I know fire codes are important, and you don't want a building to crumble in around you, but... Seems the building codes in the US are unnecessarily strict. Is it power hungry bureaucrats or exploitation from contractors that has lead to it? And how can the people be given more liberty to build the way they want?

I bought 20 acres in the hills around SE Oklahoma and am planning on a cabin next year. You can pretty much do whatever you want in Oklahoma. I was asking around about building permits and other regulations and the response was always a confused look and "it's your land, you can do what you want".

Re: Lumber crash leads to 'blowout' sales as prices crater

#396
post #10

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There seems to be a group of people who predict hyperinflation at the drop of a hat. I’m not sure if it’s paranoia or motivated reasoning though. Maybe a mix of both?

I think people predicted hyperinflation since QE has been introduced. What people don't get is that QE increases base money. When banks run out of reserves the central bank gives them more. The reverse relationship doesn't have to hold. Giving banks more reserves does not force them to lend the money out. The relationship between bank lending and base money has been fully decoupled. Whenever QE increases the supply o…

The other "half" to the inflation calculation aside from money supply is money velocity. If people and institutions aren't turning over the dollars, there obviously won't be inflation. As expected given the low inflation we've seen, V has rapidly decreased as M increased.

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=GOR4

(Both indexed to 100 as of the beginning of the 2007 recession)

Re: Lumber crash leads to 'blowout' sales as prices crater

#397

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Could you elaborate on the high prices? I have a friend who plans on building a container house, and who is convinced that it will be much cheaper than a traditional house. Note that we live in Europe, where homes are build from stone and concrete, not wood and cardboard.

It depends, actually. Container prices are very volatile. If you're in the middle of a crash, a container house can be cheap. GP was correct however in pointing out they aren't particularly good for building houses that are actually nice to live in. EDIT: There's a caveat here. Because containers are trivially transportable, you have lots of options when it comes to assembling off-site that could be kind of nice. For…

You can buy a manufactured home if you want the factory. They are cheaper, but mostly because they don't allow any customization.

Re: Lumber crash leads to 'blowout' sales as prices crater

#398

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Check out Andrew Camarata on youtube. My favorite youtube channel. He's a guy who worked for USPS and wanted to build a metal building on an undeveloped lot so he bought a backhoe, then an excavator, then a dumptruck, then a crane, etc. He buys all his equipment used and maintains it all himself. He quit USPS a long time ago and does work for hire with his equipment now that he has it all.

Andrew is where I learned that a regular joe could just buy heavy equipment and do the small excavation jobs contractors wouldn't touch. Sometimes he omits safety measures to the point that it's hard to watch (check out the recent bar sickle mower episode). So it's worthwhile reading the comments to find out what not to do also.

Before buying look at renting. There are pros and cons to renting, but most people won't use that enough to make buying cheaper, and renting means it is maintained for you.

Re: Lumber crash leads to 'blowout' sales as prices crater

#399
post #25

Earlier quoted context omitted.

who has all this money to spend? everywhere everything is so expensive. i make a ton, and this doesn't add up. nothing about home prices seems to add up.

I've been wondering the same. Apparently, where I live (HCOL) people don't care about ever paying off the full amount, as long as the monthly installment is low. Regulations only require that you paid off 33% of the house value after 15 years. You do need to start at 20% capitalization though, which at current prices means they need to own assets already (market risk), or have bonkers amounts of currency sitting arou…

In HCOL areas of the US, 10% down is becoming more common with private lenders and 5% is even a possibility (or at least was pre-pandemic). Pre-pandemic we had multiple competing banks for a $1MM+ mortgage w/ 10% down.

Re: Lumber crash leads to 'blowout' sales as prices crater

#400
i quit my software job and bought 20 acres of undeveloped farmland. then i got a job on a framing crew so i could learn to build my own house. built a polebarn on the land so far. and getting ready to dig a foundation probably next year.

its been the most exciting fulfilling adventure of my life so far. just got first harvest last month.

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