the one thing I wanted to know "is aquired immunity from other strains effective against delta" isn't mentioned or discussed. perhaps the door knockers will have the answers I need.
Delta Variant
391–400 of 442 posts
Re: Delta Variant
#392The article purposefully conflates numbers to tell a narrative. I am talking only about EU, and at that southern EU which is where I've been following the numbers closely. Delta variant has been acting for up to 1 month in some regions, and as described in the article yes cases are up very quickly. However, the article says: > COVID deaths [...] And if you think Europe or the US will be spared This is not reflected a…
Another issue which this article ignores, and so does the fear mongering clickbait media, is how many asymptotic people we are testing now vs 6 months ago or a year ago. It’s way more. The UK especially is testing like crazy. But that means a lot more cases appear in the statistics than before, even if the R rate is only marginally higher. We simply don’t know what the actual r rate of all the different variants are…
The test velocity has been fairly stable now for long enough to establish the delta variant R rate is significantly higher than with the previous variants.
We are definitely doing more testing in the UK than a year ago and it’s likely reflected in the case stats, but at the same time the rate of case growth during the last few weeks looks like a straight line up and that’s not a good thing.
We will likely see fewer hospitalisations than before due to a fairly successful vaccination effort, particularly with the edlerly, but as cases go up so does the number of people who may not die but end up with long covid. Also, the more people infected, the better breeding ground for the virus to develop new variants, and a higher chance of vaccine escape due to evolutionary pressure.
Re: Delta Variant
#393My question is why don't we have treatment? Yes we know vaccines are good as preventative but we also know that vaccines are vulnerable to mutations and waning efficacy over time. It's also somewhat burdensome to need to vaccinate all people all the time. Where is the research into effective treatments and why do we seem to prefer mass vaccination over acute treatments for the sick. Is it just much more difficult to…
Anti viral treatments are really hard to come across, it’s not like the world hasn’t been testing everything we could think of to use as a treatment, it’s just that the vast majority of chemicals that we know of or think might work don’t. Truly effective medicines are rare, finding them quickly is rarer still. Vaccines are also vastly cheaper as an intervention that treatments, currently Phizer is selling one dose for $19.50, for remdesivir it’s more like $500 for one dose and one patient needs about 6 doses for a full course of treatment. So the economic incentives are very much in favor of coming up with new treatments, rather than vaccines. It’s just really hard to do.
Re: Delta Variant
#394Earlier quoted context omitted.
Barely budged? It's gone up by a factor of 5x since the beginning of April!
Are you looking at cases instead of deaths?
No, I'm not. At the end of May, there were about 6 deaths daily. Now it's about 34, and rising exponentially. In two weeks it'll be 100 daily deaths.
Re: Delta Variant
#395The article purposefully conflates numbers to tell a narrative. I am talking only about EU, and at that southern EU which is where I've been following the numbers closely. Delta variant has been acting for up to 1 month in some regions, and as described in the article yes cases are up very quickly. However, the article says: > COVID deaths [...] And if you think Europe or the US will be spared This is not reflected a…
Another issue which this article ignores, and so does the fear mongering clickbait media, is how many asymptotic people we are testing now vs 6 months ago or a year ago. It’s way more. The UK especially is testing like crazy. But that means a lot more cases appear in the statistics than before, even if the R rate is only marginally higher. We simply don’t know what the actual r rate of all the different variants are…
Comparing case counts in 2020 was one of the dumbest things I've ever seen.
It all depended on the availability of tests.
Re: Delta Variant
#396Earlier quoted context omitted.
> mixing deaths in one country with infections in another so basically like the last 15 months there is a clear separation of critical thinkers on this planet such that we are almost two different species if it wasnt for the viable offspring
> so basically like the last 15 months Yup. It started with conflating CFR and IFR (picking CFR of course because it is the bigger number). Comparing raw numbers between two regions that report their data completely different, etc. Worse is when you show public data and get called "dangerous" because it doesn't fit the narrative that this all is the worst thing ever.
> picking CFR of course because it is the bigger number
And it changed over time. You remember hearing news media 3% at the beginning of the pandemic?
When did you hear them update it to Selective reporting all day long.
Re: Delta Variant
#397I honestly don't know how to feel about Tomas Pueyo. He's very opinionated about what he writes, and has gained good readership and influencer status on this topic. It's clear in his writings that he fancies himself as an "amateur of expert insight". He may be 100% correct. He may also be 100% wrong. It's hard to tell (let alone without invoking the conditional fallacy). However, the most lasting impression I have of…
>But all I remember from that TV debate is that his main argument tactic on TV was effectively interrupting all the time by saying "wtf", "people will die because of you" Which was an apporpriate tactic given that the United Kingdom was one of the hardest hit countries in Europe and the entire world. Visible anger in the face of complete and abject failure of an expert class and in the face of a rapidly worsening pan…
> government that was willing to 'let the bodies pile up' to 'keep the economy going'
First, the UK mortality rate was only somewhat higher in 2020. In fact, it was lower than it had been in any year before 2009.
Second, even if that were true, you vastly overestimate the efficacy of such tactics in persuading people.
Re: Delta Variant
#398Earlier quoted context omitted.
Thanks for writing this, I'm still on the fence about taking it for this reason, it was rushed and the longer term implications are certainly still not fully understood. Edit: Again with the downvotes, it's a fact . No one has had this vaccine for 3,5 or 10 years. The long term effects cannot be fully understood until such time has lapsed and studies have been completed. Here, the creator of mRNA vaccines discusses t…
> it was rushed and the longer term implications are certainly still not fully understood. It was not rushed. We have 250 years of experience with vaccinations and when their side effects happen. And longer with viruses and their autoimmune effects. After a day or three the vaccine is completely gone from your system, all that remains is the immune effects, the possible side effects are all autoimmune conditions. Tho…
Traditional vaccines != Genetic vector vaccines
Traditional vaccines: Expose the immune system to an inactivated pathogen. The immune system stochastically learns to target a number of proteins specific to the pathogen.
Genetic vector vaccines: Expose a small number of cells to genetic material that instructs them to create a specific protein chosen by the vaccine developer. The immune system then learns to target this specific protein. The pathogen is under no obligation to continues to produce this specific protein, especially in face of the selection pressure produced by the genetic vector vaccines themselves. We are already talking of booster shots to tackle mutations, 6 month since we started large scale deployment. It's only going to get worse.
Open questions:
* Which protein(s) to chose.
* Why a single protein, rather than a mosaic.
* Is the protein(s) choice generic, or should it be personalized to a specific individual protein spectrum.
* What is the long term prognosis for world scale populations.
Cold fact: We have <1 years of world scale experience with genetic vector vaccines.
Re: Delta Variant
#399Earlier quoted context omitted.
> so basically like the last 15 months Yup. It started with conflating CFR and IFR (picking CFR of course because it is the bigger number). Comparing raw numbers between two regions that report their data completely different, etc. Worse is when you show public data and get called "dangerous" because it doesn't fit the narrative that this all is the worst thing ever.
> picking CFR of course because it is the bigger number And it changed over time. You remember hearing news media 3% at the beginning of the pandemic? When did you hear them update it to Selective reporting all day long.
Plenty of people (like my folks) still think that covid has a 4% “kill rate”.
“Well that is what the experts say” is what their source is.
It’s disgusting how this whole thing is nothing but raw appeals to authority the entire way down. Thinking for yourself, expressing doubt or skepticism or having hope and optimism gets met with scorn, shame and ridicule.
Re: Delta Variant
#400Earlier quoted context omitted.
As far as I understand (I don't have any background in biology), mutations will happen regardless of whether people are vaccinated or not. There might be mutations that make the virus circumvent some vaccine protections, but those mutations would take place even if we weren't vaccinating people. Nothing about the vaccines "guides" the virus towards specific mutations. Mutations are random. If this is correct, why wou…
Mutations are random, but the factors that result in a mutation leading to improved reproductive success are not. An organisms environment helps select for beneficial mutations.
I get that. I just don't see why an environment where half the people are vaccinated would lead to worse outcomes, even if mutations take place that can bypass the vaccine's protections.