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Why the Wuhan lab leak theory shouldn't be dismissed

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Re: Why the Wuhan lab leak theory shouldn't be dismissed

#391

Post by SkyPuncher »

woodruffw wrote: post #158

My understanding of the author's central thesis is this: the US, despite its world-class virology and disease study labs, regularly has lapses in procedure that regularly lead to situations in which the public might be exposed. Given that this is happening in our own backyard, we might reasonably expect countries of similar status (like China) to experience similar lapses. That reads as reasonable to me, but raises a…

If this Wuhan lab theory is correct, I think the wet markets play a huge role in the outbreak. They place a huge number of diverse, weakened, living animal in a relatively confined area. This seems to give an ideal breeding ground for a leaked virus - which perhaps can be incubated in a host species found at the wet market. Either the animals are in too poor of condition to notice the infection or they're a natural reservoir - eliciting no symptoms.

My understanding is most other countries don't have wet markets like China does. Even if a virus escapes, it may not have access to the hosts it needs truly become problematic.

Re: Why the Wuhan lab leak theory shouldn't be dismissed

#392

Post by Enginerrrd »

tbenst wrote: post #316
SpaceRaccoon wrote: post #266

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> There are a lot of bats in Wuhan. Except everything I've read indicates the bats carrying the most closely related virus are not in Wuhan, not even close: > The SARS-CoV-2 virus is most closely related to coronaviruses found in certain populations of horseshoe bats that live about 1,000 miles (1,600 kilometers) away in Yunnan province, China. [0] [0] https://www.livescience.com/coronavirus-wuhan-lab-complicate... S…

What you’re saying is all possible. But there’s no evidence to support leak from a lab, and there is a lot of evidence supporting the natural spillover hypothesis. As such, the latter interpretation is more likely to be correct. For example, there were cases as early as December 2019 that did not come from Wuhan. Wuhan was no doubt a key early hotspot. https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/01/wuhan-seafood-market... T…

The article that you linked, if anything, offers more support for a lab leak.

Chiefly, it says that there is evidence that not only did the virus NOT originate from an animal source in the seafood market, but they suggest that Chinese officials knew that it did NOT originate in the Market, yet they issued statements saying that it did anyway.

Re: Why the Wuhan lab leak theory shouldn't be dismissed

#393

Post by throwawaysea »

tbenst wrote: post #122

This article is written by a journalist who is clearly knowledgeable about safety practices and mistakes in US labs, but does not consider the extensive knowledge we have about the sequence of SARS-COV2. The preponderance of evidence supports a natural origin of the virus. This is no way exonerates the Wuhan government from possible culpability—indeed government officials did deliberately suppress information—but thi…

The virus can be of a natural origin and still be leaked from a lab. Virology labs study copies of viruses regularly through various techniques (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gain_of_function_research). People keep conflating the possibility of an engineered virus with the possibility of a lab leak. They don't have to go together.

Furthermore, the WHO's own team admitted recently that they were simply not equipped to do any kind of forensic investigation of the lab (https://www.nationalreview.com/corner/world-health-organizat...):

> [Dominic Dwyer, a medical virologist at New South Wales Health Pathology in Sydney, Australia, and a member of the WHO team] says that the team didn’t see anything during its visits to suggest a lab accident. “Now, whether we were shown everything? You can never know. The group wasn’t designed to go and do a forensic examination of lab practice.”

Even if they were appropriately equipped for such an investigation, what's the use when China had blocked their visits until a year later, when they've had ample time to cover any evidence. The whole situation is highly suspicious, from the initial suppression of news reports of the virus, to delaying international lab visits, to the deletion of studies from that Wuhan lab (https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/13701168/covid-cover-up-china-...).

Re: Why the Wuhan lab leak theory shouldn't be dismissed

#394

Post by [deleted] »

tbenst wrote: post #155
SpaceRaccoon wrote: post #136

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You are indeed misunderstanding the point. Smallpox is also naturally originating virus. That doesn't prohibit it from leaking from a lab.

The author is irresponsibility propagating a conspiracy theory and elevating its status in the public’s mind. I’m a bioscientist. It’s frustrating to respond with evidence and in good faith, and be downvoted by those who simply disagree. But sadly it appears that the loudest voice prevails over reason. https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-00599-7

[deleted]

Re: Why the Wuhan lab leak theory shouldn't be dismissed

#395

Post by esja »

Jcowell wrote: post #373
esja wrote: post #350

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If it is shown that this occurred because scientists took a virus and made it much more infectious to humans, banning that sort of research would mitigate a lot of the risk.

Would it ? I mean it’s the same for nuclear. You can try to Ban it but someone will eventually get it. The difference here is that Nuclear Weapons aren’t formed in nature will virus can be.

Viruses may be formed in nature, but we've been dealing with that for all of our evolutionary history. Gain of function experiments are new and introduce much greater dangers.

Re: Why the Wuhan lab leak theory shouldn't be dismissed

#396

Post by caminante »

tbenst wrote: post #316
SpaceRaccoon wrote: post #266

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> There are a lot of bats in Wuhan. Except everything I've read indicates the bats carrying the most closely related virus are not in Wuhan, not even close: > The SARS-CoV-2 virus is most closely related to coronaviruses found in certain populations of horseshoe bats that live about 1,000 miles (1,600 kilometers) away in Yunnan province, China. [0] [0] https://www.livescience.com/coronavirus-wuhan-lab-complicate... S…

What you’re saying is all possible. But there’s no evidence to support leak from a lab, and there is a lot of evidence supporting the natural spillover hypothesis. As such, the latter interpretation is more likely to be correct. For example, there were cases as early as December 2019 that did not come from Wuhan. Wuhan was no doubt a key early hotspot. https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/01/wuhan-seafood-market... T…

> For example, there were cases as early as December 2019 that did not come from Wuhan.

No.

This isn't deducible from the article YOU linked!

Not having a link to the seafood marketplace in Wuhan != originating from outside Wuhan.

> The paper, written by a large group of Chinese researchers

> Their data also show that, in total, 13 of the 41 cases had no link to the marketplace.

> the virus possibly spread silently between people in Wuhan—and perhaps elsewhere—before the cluster of cases from the city’s now-infamous Huanan Seafood Wholesale Market was discovered in late December.

Re: Why the Wuhan lab leak theory shouldn't be dismissed

#397

Post by gregwebs »

This is a great article explaining why a lab leak should always be a suspect. The alternative theory is that a virus traveled on its own (via bats or other animals) from bat caves 900km away to Wuhan where there are 2 labs researching bats. One of the labs is lesser known but is right next to the seafood market and the hospital where the outbreak was first known. [1]

This article points out that a lab outbreak could have happened in the United States and many places in the world. We need to avoid demonizing China over this if we want to ever find out the truth and learn how to prevent another pandemic outbreak.

[1] https://web.archive.org/web/20200214144447/https://www.resea...

Re: Why the Wuhan lab leak theory shouldn't be dismissed

#398

Post by Enginerrrd »

drran wrote: post #297
SpaceRaccoon wrote: post #207

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Could you explain why evidence that the virus evolved naturally contradicts the lab-leak theory? I'm all ears and waiting to hear the reasoning. As others have pointed out, lab-leak does not imply artificially developed. > I’m a bioscientist. And I'm a Bayesian analyst. Surely your position is that it is a coincidence that: - the virus appeared to originate in Wuhan - genome sequences from patients were 96% or 89% id…

Virus is absent in blood or urine.

Viruses behave very differently in different species. For example, I think ebola can be airborne in pigs because it binds to receptors in pig lung cells and is more of a respiratory disease for them. It doesn't have a great affinity to human lung cells however so it's NOT airborne in humans.

Re: Why the Wuhan lab leak theory shouldn't be dismissed

#399

Post by Uninen »

There's a recent episode of Joe Rogan podcast (#1616) with Jamie Metzl that goes quite deep in this very topic: https://open.spotify.com/episode/7aitKgecZ0fPKjT15no5jU?si=h...

He's also published a blog post titled "Origins of SARS-CoV-2" on his Web site: https://jamiemetzl.com/origins-of-sars-cov-2/

Re: Why the Wuhan lab leak theory shouldn't be dismissed

#400

Post by Spooky23 »

woodruffw wrote: post #158

My understanding of the author's central thesis is this: the US, despite its world-class virology and disease study labs, regularly has lapses in procedure that regularly lead to situations in which the public might be exposed. Given that this is happening in our own backyard, we might reasonably expect countries of similar status (like China) to experience similar lapses. That reads as reasonable to me, but raises a…

The difference is easy. It’s an aerosol. Known leaks from biological weapons programs are mostly things like anthrax.

That also makes the biological warfare scenario less likely — armies like to control where the bomb goes.

The other factor to discount this conjecture is that if you hear about covid as a biological weapon, it’s less likely to be true as it would potentially expose research in other places. If China is doing this, the US, Russia and others are too.

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