Oxford University breakthrough on global COVID-19 vaccine • Hacker News Board

Re: Oxford University breakthrough on global COVID-19 vaccine

#391

Post by hobofan » Mon, Nov 23, 2020, 3:11 PM UTC

notwhereyouare wrote: post #352

Has anybody seen effectiveness numbers? Like if I get this vaccine, is it one and done? Or will it be like a yearly thing.

Obviously we can only say it with high certainty for the duration that the pandemic has been ongoing, but there are strong indications that the immunity will more likely be on the timescale of many years (or even decades)[0]. That effect shouldn't significantly depend on which of the vaccines induced the immunity.

[0]: https://www.nytimes.com/2020/11/17/health/coronavirus-immuni...

Re: Oxford University breakthrough on global COVID-19 vaccine

#392

Post by wbl » Mon, Nov 23, 2020, 3:12 PM UTC

nemo44x wrote: post #270

stavros wrote: post #188

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Aren't people worried about the fact that mRNA vaccines haven't been deployed before? I don't see much apprehension about that generally, but a few months of testing of a brand new delivery technique don't sound that extensive to me.

The delivery technique relies on LNP (lipid nano particles) which is fairly refined and existing therapeutics use today. There are potential patent violations though (both Phizer and Moderna possibly violating Arbutus patent) but it’s unclear to me how this affects distribution.

No judge in their right mind will grant an injunction when doing so will cost the lives of third parties. All the harms can be solved with a big check.

Re: Oxford University breakthrough on global COVID-19 vaccine

#393

Post by mchusma » Mon, Nov 23, 2020, 3:14 PM UTC

nabla9 wrote: post #366

arichard123 wrote: post #315

Here [1] it says the vaccine was designed mostly over the weekend of 11th Jan 2020. Here we are 10 months later and we know it works. If our knowledge of vaccine design is so good experts can design a vaccine that works over a weekend, what new breakthroughs are required to reduce the time between then and now substantially? A lot of benefit could have been had if we'd been able to get along this path more quickly. […

Nothing. Timelines for Covid-19 vaccine are already compressed. Even this data is just preliminary from Phase III. Limiting factor is safety and testing for safety. They started trials with two people, one gets vaccine one gets placebo. They look for side effects then add more and more people while constantly observing those vaccinated for side effects. Vaccines are not inherently safe, they are safe because they hav…

I strongly disagree with this.

I cannot think of a valid utilitarian argument allowing willing people from getting a vaccine.

First, vaccines have an extremely high success rate, 33% of vaccines make it through all trials to approval. 50% after phase 1 is complete.

The worst vaccine side effect ever is widely considered to be the swine flu vaccine from 60 years ago, where 1 in 100,000 got GBS (a bad disease).

If we knew with 100% confidence that this vaccine was tied for the worst, then if you are over 65 it would be about 1,000x better for you to take this "bad vaccine" versus not.

Each successive trial lost us a lot of time, and very little confidence gain.

The reality is we had many groups all independently find a vaccine that worked in Q12020. It's only the government ban on their use that allowed the pandemic to proceed like it has.

Right now in the US, the FDA has said it is not even planning to MEET on the Pfizer candidate's approval for 3 weeks. Just insane. Then, the CDC says it needs 24-48 hours after FDA approval to authorize it's release. Why can't the meet right now? Why can't the CDC pre approve release? Or be in the meeting and give simultaneous approval? Or be on a phone alert to give approval within 1 hour?

The most likely answer is that in a nationally declared pandemic, any vaccine produced by someone who has gotten a vaccine approved in the last 10 years can sell and distribute (cash only no insurance) vaccines without approval. Require them to collect data on its usage and efficacy. Wait until normal process to require people to be vaccinated.

Re: Oxford University breakthrough on global COVID-19 vaccine

#394

Post by nabla9 » Mon, Nov 23, 2020, 3:15 PM UTC

moultano wrote: post #385

nabla9 wrote: post #382

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Knowing the efficacy in few weeks is not going to speed up the vaccine trials (see my other comment).

Even once safety is established, our current protocol requires waiting for wave of infections to sweep so thoroughly through the population that some of the study volunteers are infected by chance.

That's incorrect. Both are determined from the same tests and determining safety takes longer.

Phase III trials for each of these new vaccines end long after the efficacy is determined. Estimated primary completion dates are in June 2021 (BioNTech/Pfizer) and November 2021 (Moderna).

Even after the drug is accepted, monitoring for safety continues.

Re: Oxford University breakthrough on global COVID-19 vaccine

#395

Post by rimliu » Mon, Nov 23, 2020, 3:15 PM UTC

vixen99 wrote: post #277

elmo2you wrote: post #247

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Fascinating ... > .. the gov pays for these things not the citizens .. You do know that the only money governments have, is the money they got from its citizens, right? That is, aside from what they may have earned (though plundered or extorted might be more fitting) from other nations. > .. the expensive vaccine is only $40, that's within the means of most poor people .. You may want to reevaluate your knowledge abo…

Needs to be repeated again & again: "Governments have no money of their own, it's citizens' (past, present and future - mostly the latter these days) who provide the cash via taxes".

This changes nothing. If anything it is wise for goverments to pay for vaccine because that means that economy will no longer be stifled by lockdowns and that means more money in taxes. In any cases many governments already said they will provide vaccine for free.

Re: Oxford University breakthrough on global COVID-19 vaccine

#396

Post by moultano » Mon, Nov 23, 2020, 3:18 PM UTC

mantap wrote: post #390

moultano wrote: post #346

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Challenge trials. https://www.1daysooner.org/ If it were considered ethical to do them, we could have known in a few weeks. "Medical ethics" claims another million lives.

We've subsequently learned that even young healthy and initially asymptomatic people can become permanently ill from so called "long COVID". The ethicists were right to say no.

People join the military not knowing whether or not they will ever go to war, yet they still join. By doing so they risk death, dismemberment, and all manner of long term disability under the belief that doing so makes everyone else safer.

If exposing a few people on purpose is a moral wrong, then surely allowing millions of them to contract it by accident so that a few people in your RCT can become infected by chance is a moral abomination.

Re: Oxford University breakthrough on global COVID-19 vaccine

#397

Post by wbl » Mon, Nov 23, 2020, 3:19 PM UTC

arichard123 wrote: post #315

Here [1] it says the vaccine was designed mostly over the weekend of 11th Jan 2020. Here we are 10 months later and we know it works. If our knowledge of vaccine design is so good experts can design a vaccine that works over a weekend, what new breakthroughs are required to reduce the time between then and now substantially? A lot of benefit could have been had if we'd been able to get along this path more quickly. […

None. We could have run a 400 person challenge trial in March and gotten the effqcoty data then deployed to Healthcare workers and surveillance for safety. This would entirely change the situation we're seeing now.

Re: Oxford University breakthrough on global COVID-19 vaccine

#398

Post by [deleted] » Mon, Nov 23, 2020, 3:21 PM UTC

bumby wrote: post #377

flexie wrote: post #228

Earlier quoted context omitted.

[flagged]

> Expensive, inaccessible except to the rich I don’t think the data bears this out exactly. US healthcare tends to optimize for access and quality to the detriment to cost. As the saying goes: access, quality, or cost... you only get to choose two. The US tends to measure better than any comparable country of its size on those two metrics (and quite poorly on cost...but some of that is because the US funds about 50%…

[deleted]

Re: Oxford University breakthrough on global COVID-19 vaccine

#399

Post by Ciantic » Mon, Nov 23, 2020, 3:21 PM UTC

nbevans wrote: post #211

mcdowall wrote: post #5

The key differentiator here is the storage requirements (2-8c ‘normal refrigerator’). That’s much more accessible to developing / low GDP countries as opposed the cumbersome and expensive storage requirements of the other two.

I'd argue that it is more accessible to everyone including developed nations. It only requires a standard technology freezer - like that you have in a residential home. COVID-19 has already cost the UK hundreds of billions, so being able to roll out a vaccine with minimum hassle and without needing specialist storage and training on its handling, is an absolutely enormous benefit. Honestly I feel like this vaccine is…

Moderna's vaccine can be stored in normal refrigerator (at 2 to 8 degrees Celsius) for 30 days. It also can be freezed for longer storage. [1]

However for developing world the prices becomes the issue, so you are probably right, this vaccine is cheaper and thus more available.

[1]: https://www.nationalgeographic.com/science/2020/11/moderna-e...

Re: Oxford University breakthrough on global COVID-19 vaccine

#400

Post by mantap » Mon, Nov 23, 2020, 3:22 PM UTC

freeone3000 wrote: post #91

jpxw wrote: post #64

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Another entry in the “good” column: no hospitalisations or severe cases of the disease were reported in participants receiving the vaccine. I agree about the confusion, though. I worry that people will avoid this vaccine, in the hopes of receiving the Moderna/Biontech one instead. That would be a real shame, because the results here are extremely positive. The media’s reporting of this is concerning.

Due to the low sample size, it's unclear whether there were no severe cases due to the vaccine -- it's likely that there would have been no severe cases in a given group of 39 COVID-positive individuals even with no intervention.

It depends on the ages of the 39 people. If those were 39 eighty year olds, that would be seriously impressive. If those were 39 twenty year olds it would be expected.

There's no reason to expect that the 39 would have a similar age distribution to the population because it's not a random sample.