391–400 of 563 posts
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I'm also hearing this morning that we've hit the 10% mark. I also heard the same economist say "The economy is collapsing, and it's a global collapse". I don't even need coffee to be alert the rest of the day...
Any speculations on how bad is this going to get? Should I stock up on TP, on food, or on vodka and ammo?
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The time to do that was a month ago.
Yeah, well, I unnecessarily asked my question in the indirect way. What I meant is: what do we expect to see? Wars and famines, or just little hardship? Or something in between? I've done some preparations over a month ago, but these were preparations for a short-term supply chain disruption. Not for what increasingly seems like a global economic meltdown.
Personally, I find this a lot less scary than '08. The main objective of the current exercise is to ensure the healthcare system does not collapse... because if that happens, things could get dicey. (i.e. blind terror would likely cause more damage than the virus itself) Once we get to the point where the medical community feels like 'OK, we've got this under control' things should start looking up since we'll know for sure what the bottom looks like from a health/mortality standpoint. Then people can start sorting out the economic side of the equation. Right now there's fear because no one knows where the bottom is for either situation.
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Not really, sadly. I just heard him on an internal conference call we have twice a week, so don't really have a link to provide but don't think he's published his views in writing just yet. I expect a lot of similar predictions to come out now that the unemployment claims number is out (as of ~1 hour ago) For general views of very smart people on the economy and markets, I recommend Bloomberg Surveillance every morni…
Ah I see, okay thank you.
Right now, the sources I have say to expect to be WFH and "socially distanced" until July or August at the earliest. Restaurants will probably start slowly opening back up around then, but conferences or sporting events are going to be cancelled through at least the end of the year. A single sporting event or conference can lead to thousands of new infections, so none of that stuff is coming back for a long time.
Past that, we were told to expect 3 waves of economic pain: one right now when everyone loses their job, another big layoff cycle in 3 months once companies that can WFH start to adjust for structural changes, and a third wave near the end of the year after people start to seriously curtail consumption in response to the first two waves and global demand falls off a cliff.
This information has been getting priced into the market for a few weeks, so none of it is new. But these numbers are just starting to hit the wider media and your average American is starting to panic because we're looking at a decade or more of hurt before this is all over.
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So you're saying -- if things now return to conditions that were present during "Two global wars, the use of nuclear weapons" of last century... no cause for alarm?
Civilization can withstand alarming situations.
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What about African american and latino vote https://www.politico.com/news/2020/03/04/black-voters-biden-... "already have medicare" theory isn't the explanation.
Latinx are overwhelming swinging to Sanders (per your link), people of color swing Biden due to his riding on Obama's coat tails [1] (IMHO; he has no policies that benefit them with his "status quo" stance). If Biden runs, Trump wins reelection. Not enough voter support for Biden besides older voters and people of color, younger voters will sit out before voting for Biden in a general election. That's not my opinion,…
Young people don't vote, so no one cares what they think. Latino's and African American's will vote for Biden since Trump is pretty damn racist and if they don't, they are basically screwed for another generation. Minorities don't have the luxury of waiting for the perfect candidate like White College Kids can.
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Remember that 100 years ago, and then again 80 years ago, large percentages of men in Europe were removed from their own countries and sent somewhere else; ships transporting food and supplies were actively sunk, houses and factories were bombed to smithereens. In spite of the massive economic damage that caused, civilization did not descend into anarchy, and very few people who weren't prisoners starved to death. CO…
> Remember that 100 years ago, and then again 80 years ago, large percentages of men in Europe were removed from their own countries and sent somewhere else; ships transporting food and supplies were actively sunk, houses and factories were bombed to smithereens. In spite of the massive economic damage that caused, civilization did not descend into anarchy, and very few people who weren't prisoners starved to death.…
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There are far more deaths in Italy and France then statistics show... > On Tuesday night, the health authority in the Grand Est region said two-thirds of its 620 old people’s homes had been affected by the coronavirus pandemic and 570 residents had died. > Those 570 people are not recorded in France’s official coronavirus death toll, which reached 4,032 on April 1, but so far counts only those who have died in hospit…
I was under the impression that Italy did test for covid also post-mortem? there were claims here couple days back that this was the case (and a claim that apparently Germany didn't). if that's the case then how could the numbers be different?
In London someone died of malaria last week because it took 9 hours for an ambulance to show up.
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I'm also hearing this morning that we've hit the 10% mark. I also heard the same economist say "The economy is collapsing, and it's a global collapse". I don't even need coffee to be alert the rest of the day...
Any speculations on how bad is this going to get? Should I stock up on TP, on food, or on vodka and ammo?
The curve will barely flatten, before 'peak infection' is reached. At the current rate, we have only 1 or 2 months to accomplish this, and no progress so far.
Many folks will get sick; the oldest will die at home. For others it will suck, and there will be no help even from neighbors, churches etc (like the last time, they quit functioning entirely)
Some will not notice at all, apparently. They will survive into a world changed by loss, conservatism, suspicion and paranoia.
An initial recession, while paradoxically goods are plentiful due to the reduced demand
The Social Security fund will disappear entirely as a topic of discussion
Civilization won't fall, and public order will only be occasionally disrupted in small localities
I'd recommend establishing a network of close friends who will support one another during this time. It's about the only support we can expect.
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What do you feel is stupid about the response to this? 1% is a lot of people. The whole point of social distancing and staying at home is to not overwhelm the healthcare system and to give more time to develop proper care procedures.
Playing devil's advocate for a moment, 1% would be approximately the same number of deaths we get in a typical year. Slightly more, yes, but some number of the COVID deaths are probably people that had a high likelihood of dying this year anyway, so it seems like an okay estimate. In that case we are doubling our deaths for a year. Very significant, but in the grand scheme of things it poses no real danger to the spe…
I'd definitely rather risk that than risk a couple million people dying over the course of a few months - 1% of 70% of 320M, and that's just in the US. What effect on the economy do you expect would come of that?
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Latinx are overwhelming swinging to Sanders (per your link), people of color swing Biden due to his riding on Obama's coat tails [1] (IMHO; he has no policies that benefit them with his "status quo" stance). If Biden runs, Trump wins reelection. Not enough voter support for Biden besides older voters and people of color, younger voters will sit out before voting for Biden in a general election. That's not my opinion,…
> If Biden runs, Trump wins reelection. Not enough voter support for Biden besides older voters and people of color, younger voters will sit out before voting for Biden in a general election. That's not my opinion, that's what the polling data shows. Young people don't vote, so no one cares what they think. Latino's and African American's will vote for Biden since Trump is pretty damn racist and if they don't, they a…
> Latino's and African American's will vote for Biden since Trump is pretty damn racist
There are still many Latinx [1] and people of color [2] voting for Trump (or desire a candidate besides Trump and Biden), despite his character. Never underestimate a Cult of Personality.
[1] https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2020/02/latino-sup... ("President Donald Trump has done almost everything he can to anger Latino voters. And yet, his support among this crucial portion of the electorate remains surprisingly consistent. After the 2016 election, exit polls analyzed by the Pew Research Center showed that 28 percent of Latino voters supported Trump; today, 30 percent support him.")
[2] https://www.politico.com/news/2020/02/24/blackpac-poll-democ... (Poll: Democrats underperforming with black voters | More than one-third of those surveyed expressed a desire for ‘someone else’ to run for president.)