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Age, Sex, Existing Conditions of Covid-19 Cases and Deaths

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Re: Age, Sex, Existing Conditions of Covid-19 Cases and Deaths

#391

Post by obelos »

learc83 wrote: post #327
obelos wrote: post #302

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Given the 2-3 week transmissible incubation period where the infected show no symptoms, it doesn't seem like there's short enough feedback loop for the lethality to be tempered through natural selection within the initial period of the outbreak (which we're just beginning).

>Given the 2-3 week transmissible incubation period No one knows if it's transmissible during the entire incubation period. It's almost certainly not given how other viruses behave. Also the possibility of transmission during asymptomatic periods doesn't mean that it's likely, or that most transmissions happen during that time.

Good points!

Re: Age, Sex, Existing Conditions of Covid-19 Cases and Deaths

#393

Post by rootusrootus »

hutzlibu wrote: post #308
eecc wrote: post #286

Earlier quoted context omitted.

No, it’s the immune reaction to the inoculation. It means there actually was something to look at in the shot

Yes. Usual mostly those things to look at are mercury etc. which are in the shot to make the immune system react. Now, this immune reaction means stress, right? The question is just, does this mean the immune system is general in a more active state so it can fight other diseases also more effectivly, or is it fully occupied with the fake illness, so real diseases can enter? I don't know, but would like a medical per…

> mercury etc. which are in the shot to make the immune system react

By mercury do you mean Thimerosal? It is a preservative, it is not an active ingredient of the vaccine.

Re: Age, Sex, Existing Conditions of Covid-19 Cases and Deaths

#394

Post by companyhen »

nostrademons wrote: post #285
companyhen wrote: post #243

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Are you saying the flu vaccine can help prevent covid-19? Just trying to clarify. I'm traveling to Asia in 3 weeks from US and haven't gotten the flu shot the past year. I got it in 2017 and got sick, 2018 and got sick, but last year I decided not to and didn't get sick at all. Maybe just a coincidence though.

No, but you really don't want to get both the flu and coronavirus at the same time. And on a community level - if you're not going into the ER because you have swine flu, that's one more bed/ventilator that can be used for a coronavirus patient. It's also just a good idea. Spanish/Swine Flu (H1N1) is circulating again this year, and if we didn't have coronavirus occupying all the headlines people would be talking abo…

Thanks for the info. Maybe should head to the pharmacy for a free shot then.

Re: Age, Sex, Existing Conditions of Covid-19 Cases and Deaths

#395

Post by ajsnigrutin »

fragmede wrote: post #332
ajsnigrutin wrote: post #254

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The problem is in the healthcare capacities. I live in a country with ~2mio people. If you're patient zero here, you get a comfy private room, your own bed, 5 doctors, 10 nurses, whole research teams, respirators, priority with all the tests, examinations, etc. Same for patient 1, 2, 3. If 200k people get infected (10% of population), and only 10% of those need extra medical care, that's 20.000 people. We don't have…

I don't disagree with your position - if there's a wide-spread epidemic, things will go bad, especially as the healthcare system gets overwhelmed. But that's not a novel or interesting point of view, and I doubt many would disagree. So why go around inciting panic? Lets try some other numbers. If 1% of the population gets infected, and 1% needs extra medical care, that's 200 people. If 0.1% of the population is infec…

But if you get a bunch of "it's just a flu" people, who sneeze everywhere and don't wash their hands, that "1%" number gets higher. I'm not saying we should close up the whole country, but basic measures (you're ill, even if it is just a flu, you stay home... people must wash hands. Hand desinfectants at stores, schools, etc. No large gatherings if it's not neccessary. If you can, work from home, if someone near you got sick. etc)

Re: Age, Sex, Existing Conditions of Covid-19 Cases and Deaths

#396

Post by DyslexicAtheist »

hcknwscommenter wrote: post #370
DyslexicAtheist wrote: post #211

Earlier quoted context omitted.

EDIT: --- As the replies to my comment indicate I have totally misunderstood the paper. And there IS in fact evidence that the temperature changes the transmission. Sorry my bad. leaving the rest as is --- > I'm hoping Spring ends up curtailing the pandemic; letting warmer temperatures do their work requires slowing down the virus' spread as much as possible, and that requires significant disruptions to people's ever…

That paper correlating temperature with transmission is comically bad. As stated above, the likelihood warmer temperatures by themselves will have any affect on COVID-19 transmission or deaths is close to zero.

I've been seeing comments all over that the temperature will reduce transmission, and even heard it cited in the news today. I'm very skeptic about this since citing SARS research is useless here.

fwiw trying to find evidence of this claim in studies relating to covid19 (peer reviewed or not) has so far yielded no results.

Re: Age, Sex, Existing Conditions of Covid-19 Cases and Deaths

#397

Post by partiallypro »

vkou wrote: post #368
partiallypro wrote: post #362

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Does this look like a competent response to you? Or do you think is was thought of by a bureaucrat within the CCP? This is one of many examples. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Yw7M-fUaIb0 Also fecal matter might be part of the transmission. Gutter grease is produced from sewage waste (in many case.) https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-02-20/fecal-tra...

If making a stupid PSA video is the criteria for incompetence, I'm not sure I've ever interacted with a single competent organization that was large enough to film one. I don't care about their filmographic teams. I care about whether or not the control measures are working.

I said that was one of -many- examples. Try reading around. China even went so far as to blame the outbreak on the US. Sounds a lot like the Soviet era. https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/02/15/coronavirus-xi-jinping-...

Outside of just lying about case numbers...

"But by Feb. 5, the funeral parlors and crematoriums were reported to be having problems keeping up with the disposal of the dead in Wuhan. Though no data was provided to address the matter, Wuhan’s lockdown was endangering not only the lives of coronavirus-infected individuals but also those of thousands of people who required medications and occasional treatment for such things as HIV infection, kidney disease, diabetes, and hypertension. Hospitals no longer welcomed them, medicines were running out, yet there is no count of their numbers or deaths."

"As the makeshift quarantine facilities filled, questions arose about their safety, as people were stacked side by side and shared toilet facilities. There was clear evidence that the coronavirus disease could be spread via feces or the off-gassing from overused toilets and taxed plumbing."

Sounds like they've been everything but competent.

Re: Age, Sex, Existing Conditions of Covid-19 Cases and Deaths

#398

Post by yibg »

partiallypro wrote: post #397
vkou wrote: post #368

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If making a stupid PSA video is the criteria for incompetence, I'm not sure I've ever interacted with a single competent organization that was large enough to film one. I don't care about their filmographic teams. I care about whether or not the control measures are working.

I said that was one of -many- examples. Try reading around. China even went so far as to blame the outbreak on the US. Sounds a lot like the Soviet era. https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/02/15/coronavirus-xi-jinping-... Outside of just lying about case numbers... "But by Feb. 5, the funeral parlors and crematoriums were reported to be having problems keeping up with the disposal of the dead in Wuhan. Though no data was…

Trust and theatre perhaps; and there is certainly a lot of precedence for it from China. And I don't think anyone is taking the news and numbers from China at face value.

Flip it around a bit. China has taken the actions they have to contain the virus, there are some indications of success. You think it's not enough or not done correctly. What would you have done instead?

Re: Age, Sex, Existing Conditions of Covid-19 Cases and Deaths

#399

Post by eecc »

swebs wrote: post #356
eecc wrote: post #51

Earlier quoted context omitted.

In NL, I literally did just that: I walked in, asked if it was still worthwhile and the doc said “sure, we haven’t peaked on the flu yet. Want one?” I said “yeah” and we were done in 5 min max. I guess it’s somehow got to do with living in a country with some leftovers of the Socialist hellhole it used to be... /s

Ahh, I love seeing these kinds of snarky comments go grey.

Let’s see how long it takes for yours to join :P

Re: Age, Sex, Existing Conditions of Covid-19 Cases and Deaths

#400

Post by palmstroem »

learc83 wrote: post #234
swader999 wrote: post #88

Earlier quoted context omitted.

In the who presentation, Dr Bruce Aylward mentioned this. I'll try to dig up the exact spot in the clip for you. At 1:07:44 this is discussed in depth: https://youtu.be/-o0q1XMRKYM

Here's a response I wrote earlier to that. After he said that someone else from the WHO contradicted him. "The claim was quickly challenged by an infectious diseases expert who serves on a committee that advises the WHO’s health emergencies program. Gary Kobinger, director of the Infectious Disease Research Center at Laval University in Quebec, said it would be highly unusual for there not to be mild or symptom-free…

He gives more detailed numbers about Guandong: at the height of the epidemic, they performed 320000 tests, of which less than 0.5% were positive, which means that they missed less than 200 cases. In other words, Aylward thinks the Chinese numbers are basically correct. Even though of course not all cases are detected, we are not looking at magnitudes more undetected cases driving up the infections in the background.
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