391–400 of 404 posts
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Galloway always predicts that every tech company is a bubble. Every now and then he's right.
In the long view, all tech companies are small bubbles. They don’t stick around and have no long term value.
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Everyone has a vested interest in continuing to believe that which they already believe. To change your opinion requires acknowledging that your old opinion, the one you perhaps espoused publicly and persuaded others into believing, was wrong. It's embarrassing. So most people tend to put that reckoning off until the last possible moment, even in defiance of hard evidence in some cases.
Then do other people now trust you less because you were wrong, or do they trust you more because you correct yourself?
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What I've observed, very very anecdotally, is that Peloton buyers become emotionally invested, and it turns out that they don't use the thing much, but resist strongly the idea of selling it at a huge loss and admitting defeat. Because buyers tend to have quite a bit of disposable income, it takes a long time to drift down to a market-clearing price.
eBay has something to say about this: new Peloton bikes run $2245 on their site, they're clearing for about $1700-$1800 on eBay right now. This is a significant value drop, but not huge given the logistical difficulties of this specific resale market (shipping these things is hard.)
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We have a Peloton bike and treadmill both. I haven't watched too closely, but occasionally people ask about selling their bikes (or buying a used bike to save money), and the impression I get is that they hold their value relatively well. Then again, asking price != sale price. I'm trying to validate but all I'm finding on sfbay.craigslist is coupon codes and "Peloton style spinning bike" and so forth.
What I've observed, very very anecdotally, is that Peloton buyers become emotionally invested, and it turns out that they don't use the thing much, but resist strongly the idea of selling it at a huge loss and admitting defeat. Because buyers tend to have quite a bit of disposable income, it takes a long time to drift down to a market-clearing price.
We go in cycles; I use the bike much less frequently in the summer when I ride outside more, and more in the winter. I'm around 300 rides on it, my wife's closer to 100. (I ride more/she runs more).
We bought the treadmill in the spring after she got injured (again) trying to run in short morning daylight hours, or waning evening daylight hours, so we haven't used it as much, but it will definitely get a lot more use as the darkness descends on us again.
We're both pretty active, so I guess maybe we don't represent the average of the addressable market, but maybe we represent more of an average of CURRENT owners.
Peloton could really have a home run, market-wise, if they could sell expensive equipment AND subscriptions that people don't want to let go of because they want to keep thinking of themselves as people who work out. (The same way people keep paying gym memberships because they want to believe they're going to work out more).
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So why didn't they switch to Slack, Mattermost, etc rather than build their own?
They didn't build their own. The just forked Mattermost and skinned it a bit. Also invested/spent/donated $10k to have a say in Mattermost's roadmap. Why not slack TL;DR - Uber, surprisingly, is cheap about off-the-shelf solutions. Cheaper than they are about balloons anyway. Slack was trialed twice. Once in late 2015, and there were some bumps. Rather than stick with it, Uber ditched it citing it "couldn't handle th…
I left Uber before the late 2017 Slack test, so I know nothing about it, but I think "It costs too much" is a very fair objection to using a chat app, especially for an unprofitable company that would have to pay for >30k seats.
At this point, I'm sure that Slack has resolved these performance issues for the sake of onboarding all companies that are Uber-sized or larger.
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Literally nothing in the first paragraph is true. For driver interaction, if it wasn't a push notification in the app then it would have been some sort of driver operations community tool like zendesk or similar. > It was like 25k people in a single room iirc. This never happened. I literally could not have happened. Uber ditched Hipchat when it was around 10k employees. The largest rooms I ever saw were outages or e…
Theres really no point litigating this 4 years later (who cares) but it did happen. Uber had bots of some type, thousands of them in a single room. They were the largest user of our v1 API, which was an ancient shitty PHP base, and whatever they were doing put an enormous load on our backend during peak traffic periods and crippled the entire service. Seeing this behavior was as easy as doing a join in mysql for user…
Most open-source and commercial software advertise that they can scale, but throw the first 500 or 5000 users and it's breaking apart.
This is almost too perfect but SoftBank is, at the moment, trying to hire a valuations director: https://www.indeed.com/viewjob?jk=cf0378114e63aeb4&from=tp-s... Sort of a "Never attribute to malice that which is adequately explained by stupidity" kind of thing . . .