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Yield Curves Invert in U.S., U.K

bloomberg.com

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Re: Yield Curves Invert in U.S., U.K

#391

Post by alexandercrohde »

prewett wrote: post #320
alexandercrohde wrote: post #298

So, somebody with a more rigorous understanding correct me if I'm wrong, but I always thought it was a truism that any advice about the market appearing in print was necessarily useless: If there is advice (e.g. Buy/Sell when X happens) and there is statistical proof it's a good indicator, then large companies with multibillion portfolios would act on that evidence. At which time their behavior would "correct" for th…

As you may have noticed from the article, the point of yield curves inverting is that it is a pretty reliable recession-coming indicator: "The curve inversion to this point is flagging a 55-to-60 percent chance of a U.S. recession over the next 12 months" Also, if your timeframe is long-term, information in print is relevant, since a stock frequently trades in a region for months or years. In fact, there is a whole s…

>> "The curve inversion to this point is flagging a 55-to-60 percent chance of a U.S. recession over the next 12 months"

So if that's reliably actionable, why aren't billion-dollar investors shorting market indices right now?

Re: Yield Curves Invert in U.S., U.K

#392

Post by bertjk »

JeremyNT wrote: post #265
empath75 wrote: post #213

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> the thought has always been that the president was using a high leverage negotiating strategy Whose thought? The people who didn't know that trump was an incompetent nutjob?

Regardless of the man himself, historically the "deep state" (for lack of a better phrase) has so much inertia that radical changes (even if desired) by the White House end up moderated. I think it's more correct to say that people are realizing that the old order under the president is gradually eroding and its moderating effects are weakening, which adds compounding risks (directly in the trade war stuff but also h…

I think the better phrase is simply "bureaucracy".

Re: Yield Curves Invert in U.S., U.K

#393

Post by NikolaNovak »

tunesmith wrote: post #343
refurb wrote: post #319

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You might want to consider the idea that people who disagree with you politically might in fact not be dumb, but just have views that differ from yours. Just a thought.

Philosophical question - why is that important to know? What added value is discovered by realizing your opponent's conclusion is not based off of bad facts or faulty reasoning, but different values?

Practical answer - how you engage is radically different.

My math prof likened it to the axiomatic frameworks: if a person has bad facts or faulty reasoning, but your core axioms (values) are similar, you are more likely to come to a point of mutual agreement or at least understanding. If your values (axioms) are radically different, chances are your entire frameworks are different and possibly incompatible. You'll be talking past each other, discussing methods while in fact your goals and assumptions are completely different.

Philosophical answer - depends on your philosophy and how you feel about philosophical zombie - i.e. is it only outward results or internal causes that make a difference to you.

Re: Yield Curves Invert in U.S., U.K

#394

Post by phat_gopher »

kickopotomus wrote: post #328
nwalker85 wrote: post #317

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Trump has created 515 businesses and only 11 of them failed. That's a 98.64% success rate. He has a better track record than Elon Musk by an order of magnitude.

Citation? What 515 businesses did he create?

https://www.documentcloud.org/documents/2175187-trump.html

Re: Yield Curves Invert in U.S., U.K

#395

Post by ashelmire »

ben_jones wrote: post #373
dobleboble wrote: post #355

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"federal government" is probably a better term than "deep state" unless you're intentionally trying to be inflammatory...

I think the rational definition of Deep State is just the government “lifers” who stay in significant spheres of influence for most of their career. I.e. key defense, intelligence, financial, etc positions.

It's a term meant to slander professionals and imply that we should constantly rotate in the current political favorites into positions for which they are not qualified.

Re: Yield Curves Invert in U.S., U.K

#396

Post by soren_dahl »

batmansmk wrote: post #300
strenholme wrote: post #221

I remember the dot-com crash of 2001 and seeing companies close so fast, they didn’t their employees a final paychecks; I remember one day, after the dot-com collapse a position I was qualified for got filled within three hours. As someone who has seen this before, things are looking ominous: The stock market drop of late 2018 reminded me of the stock market drop we had in 2000, about a year before everything fell ap…

I heard a few key thinkers predicting a larger recession due to our inability of getting more energy out. GDP and energy seemed to be correlated so far, as if our growth is directly or indirectly fueled by the cheap labor of machines and automation. Gas and electricity production reached a peak which can only go down in a finite world. With a constrained energy supply, GDP should go down. At least that's what happene…

UK has not entered recession, UK has 1 negative quarter, a recession is 2.

Re: Yield Curves Invert in U.S., U.K

#397

Post by TuringNYC »

zanny wrote: post #372
tlogan wrote: post #116

Earlier quoted context omitted.

And things will be worse because China is also heading into recession. You know, you need sell all these products to somebody... And when US consumer stops buying new iPhones (or what ever) combined with recession then situation is going be really really tough. So this will be worse that 2008. Much worse. Back in 2008, China was growing and helping to ease the recession. I do not think China's economy will grow durin…

> So this will be worse that 2008. 2008 was bad because the collective banks of the US realized trillions in mortgages were money on the books that wasn't real and was never going to be real. The correction involved resetting said books and taking a few banks and a trillion dollars of US taxpayer money along the way. What is the correction this time? All it would really be is a run on confidence in global financial m…

It is very hard to speculate about future crises since often the causes are only obvious in hindsight...but...here I go speculating anyway :-)

Firstly, I totally agree with you on 2008 - bank failure driven recessions are always worse than regular recessions, so 2008 already takes a lead.

However, there is another aspect -- the 2008 crisis was controlled by a combination of controlling interest rates and other QE measures. We're now still in ZIRP (zero interest rate policy) so one of our key tools for combating a crisis is gone (it is like being at the bottom of the hill and realizing you are already on low gear.)

Of course, we have other QE as well as fiscal tools, but lowering rates wont be one of them.

Re: Yield Curves Invert in U.S., U.K

#398

Post by kingnothing »

dageshi wrote: post #335
quotemstr wrote: post #288

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm in the "worse than 2008" camp, mostly due to the reasons the OP gives. Another consideration is that our current expansion has been a very long one, and the longer an expansion goes on, the more fraudulent cruft accumulates, the cruft beings things like assets not marked to actual market value, money-losing businesses subsidized in various ways, and sometimes outright Madoff-like fraud. This cruft appears financi…

There isn't anything like the housing bubble right now. There's nothing that really allows people who shouldn't be able to borrow lots of money to borrow lots of money like housing did last time. What you're describing is just the normal stuff that happens in all recessions. And as much as we had a long boom, we also had quite a long painful recovery from 2008, it wasn't the same as normal recovery which explains why…

There's the looming student debt crisis, which is absolutely allowing lots of people to borrow money they shouldn't be able to get. People are graduating college well into six figures of debt with nearly worthless degrees that pay little more than minimum wage. Even worse, the government guarantees that debt is not dischargeable in bankruptcy, leaving no way out for the underwater borrowers.

Re: Yield Curves Invert in U.S., U.K

#399

Post by tunesmith »

dv_dt wrote: post #177
vpribish wrote: post #136

Earlier quoted context omitted.

much worse than 2008 how? Global debt markets nearly collapsed and the single largest investment of american consumers crashed. You are making a really bold claim there and it looks like cheap catastrophizing.

If you read Ray Dalio, he seems think think the next recession will be a "debt supercycle" which could be worse than 2008. (this could be him plugging his hedge fund, but he's semi retired, and really has no more money needed to make personally) Note also that recessions have been growing longer each cycle. IMHO it's related to the bottom 99% having been getting paid smaller and smaller portions of wealth, and so a b…

It's hard to follow his reasoning sometimes. Sometimes it seems like he's saying that we already went through the debt supercycle, or the end of the long-term debt cycle and we've already gone through the reflation period.

But other times it sounds like he's saying the real "big one" is still about to happen, rather than just another recession.

Re: Yield Curves Invert in U.S., U.K

#400

Post by tempguy9999 »

SkyBelow wrote: post #381
starlust2 wrote: post #370

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Citation needed, and by that I mean his tax returns and financial statements. The public at large does not know how much Trump is worth because he won't disclose much of anything.

If you want to play that game, then citation needed that he went bankrupt and I only take his tax returns and financial statements. See how this level of discussion of not just demanding a citation, but then limiting what citations you accept to an extremely small set of documents isn't constructive?

> If you want to play that game, then citation needed that he went bankrupt

It's a reasonable question, but 1 minute googling got this report https://www.buzzfeednews.com/article/kendalltaggart/here-are... with 3 of them viz.

    The Trump Taj Mahal Casino

    Trump’s Plaza

    The Trump Castle
Are these at least sufficient to convince you?
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