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NYC subway and bus services have entered 'death spiral', experts say

theguardian.com

391–400 of 477 posts

Re: NYC subway and bus services have entered 'death spiral', experts say

#391
post #374

Amazon Cuomo will fix it.

I think if Amazon pitches in with some funds and help them out with logistics software planning for increased efficiency, they will go a long way in buying some goodwill from the NY public. It's great publicity while helping out the city citizens.

Put all that ML and AI expertise to some public use.

Re: NYC subway and bus services have entered 'death spiral', experts say

#392

The problem with urban transport systems is that no one sees them for what they really are... an expensive thing that drives the economy. There seems to be an obsession in the west with making public transport pay for itself, but the reality is that a few billion invested in better public transport results in a lot more billions being made elsewhere. We need to get away from this idea that public transport systems ne…

NYC wouldn't last a week without its subway and light rail. Everyone uses it, except maybe for the billionaires who have private helicopters. Its critical infrastructure just as sewage system and powerlines.

Re: NYC subway and bus services have entered 'death spiral', experts say

#393
post #306

Earlier quoted context omitted.

He's likely referring to how (some) people enjoy driving because of the sense of freedom & control it gives them. But he is asserting that this is just an illusion. Honestly, I feel the same way, since most time I spend driving I spend sitting in traffic or something.

There are few things I get more enjoyment out of than driving a car that corners well through a beautiful mountainous road like the Blue Ridge Parkway through the Appalachian, or up through Yosemite from Fresno. When I need to clear my head, I still hop in the car and go for a drive with music. Not also afraid to admit -- I've had some of my most cathartic, emotional-cleansing crys in the vehicle by myself. In this d…

How many of the miles driven are cornering on interesting roads in the mountains and how many miles are dull city traffic during rush hour? I'd wager that most people never drive a road that you'd find interesting in a car that would make it worth their time.

Re: NYC subway and bus services have entered 'death spiral', experts say

#394

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Sorting that wikipedia table by recovery ratio, I see most of the profitable ones are in East Asia and distance based: Osaka (OMTB) 137%, Hong Kong MTR 124%, Osaka (Hankyu Railway) 123%, Tokyo Metro 119%, London Underground 107%, Singapore (SMRT) 101%, Taipei Metro 100%. Clearly it is possible to have profitable subways, so I don't think we should drop profitability as a goal.

Just because a profitable subway exist does not mean it's possible anywhere in the world. The location, geography, culture and population density all affect profitability.

> The location, geography, culture and population density all affect profitability.

I would argue none of these should be issues in NYC except for the "culture", if in that you include mismanagement culture.

Re: NYC subway and bus services have entered 'death spiral', experts say

#395

The problem with urban transport systems is that no one sees them for what they really are... an expensive thing that drives the economy. There seems to be an obsession in the west with making public transport pay for itself, but the reality is that a few billion invested in better public transport results in a lot more billions being made elsewhere. We need to get away from this idea that public transport systems ne…

Why it drives the economy compared to private trasport?

Because roads don't have the capacity to replace the subway system. A subway can move an order of magnitude more people than a road.

Re: NYC subway and bus services have entered 'death spiral', experts say

#396

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Absolutely -- and you can see this even in the article. They talk about raising fares and cutting service, with no acknowledgement that their primary source of income shouldn't be fares, and their primary budget cuts shouldn't come from reduced service. This article from last year does a much better job of covering how things have gotten to the state they're in - https://www.nytimes.com/2017/11/18/nyregion/new-york-s…

NYC subway fares are insanely cheap compared to the rest of the (developed) world. $2.75 single for any distance is incredibly low. In London that same fare in rush hour would be anywhere between $4 and $15+ depending on the length of the journey (and NYC has much higher GDP per capita than London, plus the £ is on its arse at the moment). Even Berlin is marginally more expensive, in a much smaller & less economicall…

I believe London's GDP per capita is comparable to NYC.

Re: NYC subway and bus services have entered 'death spiral', experts say

#397

The problem with urban transport systems is that no one sees them for what they really are... an expensive thing that drives the economy. There seems to be an obsession in the west with making public transport pay for itself, but the reality is that a few billion invested in better public transport results in a lot more billions being made elsewhere. We need to get away from this idea that public transport systems ne…

I think this statement is simply wrong. Why? If you ARE doing business and need transportation, why can't you pay for it?

If your expected value of a deal is higher than the fare price, then you should drive. Otherwise not :). "There seems to be an obsession in the west" - no, but there seems to be one in the east, where most public transport actually ARE profitable.

Your statement has the problem that you can never prove it, "if we do X, it will create soooo much wealth" -- uh, and how much? That's an important question if you want to decide to "invest" either 1B or 100B into a new railway or road system.

And FWIW: I know VERY few businessmen who use public transport as their primary way of transport (it's usually cab or UBER, or plane), but that might be biased.

Re: NYC subway and bus services have entered 'death spiral', experts say

#398
post #99

This is a really depressing story to read. I've always believed that a good indicator of a country's health, is its ability to tackle complex large-scale projects. Projects that require coordination on multiple fronts: politics, bureaucracy, technical-know-how, civic sacrifice. In the old days when all this infrastructure was built in the first place, we showed our ability to do so. But now, we've gotten to the point…

I don't disagree with this sentiment, but it's worth pointing out that nearly all transportation projects from the "old days" around the world were done by private companies, and often met a swift end in bankruptcy. Creditors lost a lot, but the assets were then picked up by others, and refined through years of trial and error into endeavors of modest profitability. Only our sepia-colored glasses and the survival bia…

You may be speaking from the US point of view there. Internationally, many of the biggest projects were government-built and then only later given over to private firms to run

Re: NYC subway and bus services have entered 'death spiral', experts say

#399
post #224

Earlier quoted context omitted.

In Tokyo, the rail transit system (including subways) is operated by a network of private companies. These train operators make a net profit from fares and other revenues, and the system is generally well liked by its customers. Even if the idea of privatization makes you cringe, the idea that public transit is inevitably a money pit or loss leader is misguided. https://www.citylab.com/transportation/2011/10/why-toky…

It's worth noting that they got there because at the time of development, the rail companies were able to buy up the surrounding land and develop that. They reinvested their real estate profits into more rail and more real estate, creating a virtuous cycle. (Hong Kong, one of the only other profitable systems, did something similar by having the government effectively transfer land for free initially.) American rail…

so American rail in the 1870's

Re: NYC subway and bus services have entered 'death spiral', experts say

#400

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> it's worth pointing out that nearly all transportation projects from the "old days" around the world were done by private companies, and often met a swift end in bankruptcy... Only our sepia-colored glasses and the survival bias of remaining parts makes it look like people back then had it figured out, and we don't. This is true, but only part of the story. The private railroads (and indeed much internet infrastruc…

In NYC specifically, the problem was the city government introduced price caps that made the privately owned lines unprofitable, then refused to raise them. So, of course the trains went out of business. It was set to 5 cents in 1904 and remained there for over 40 years . Not even the lowest hanging fruit could survive such a thing.

Yeah I believe you, I had taken temp-dude's comment to be more about railroads in general and not suburban railways or NYC in particular. And those are different, always were more government related.
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