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Reasons to Fear Another ‘Great War’

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Re: Reasons to Fear Another ‘Great War’

#391

Post by Fjolsvith »

projektfu wrote: post #167
lozaning wrote: post #78

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You know what is absolutely undisputed though? America's love for guns. There are 120 guns in the US for every 100 people. American civilians own 393 million guns, both legally and otherwise, out of a worldwide total of 857 million firearms [1]. Good luck occupying that. Also, FWIW under every circumstance that isn't some kind of military invasion phantasy porn I generally look less positively on our relationship wit…

It seems much more likely to me that a crafty foreign power would convince the "real" Americans to fight against the "phony" Americans, whomever they may be. I believe part of the Soviet strategy was to have Americans take arms against their own government. I feel that part of the modern Russian strategy is to get Americans to be willing take arms against their neighbors. Perhaps there are other players as well who h…

Or, perhaps a foreign power would work with a political party to attempt to disarm Americans...

Re: Reasons to Fear Another ‘Great War’

#392

Post by Fjolsvith »

soylentcola wrote: post #100
lozaning wrote: post #78

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You know what is absolutely undisputed though? America's love for guns. There are 120 guns in the US for every 100 people. American civilians own 393 million guns, both legally and otherwise, out of a worldwide total of 857 million firearms [1]. Good luck occupying that. Also, FWIW under every circumstance that isn't some kind of military invasion phantasy porn I generally look less positively on our relationship wit…

My (admittedly uninformed and probably based on too many movies/novels) expectations would be less about traditional occupation and more about neutralization. I can't imagine the "Red Dawn" scenario of Russian troops invading and occupying US territory. If anything, the goal would be to knock out critical communication/shipping infrastructure to effectively disrupt all normal activity--can't buy or sell, can't get fo…

I imagine that the "centers of power" that would collapse would be the major metropolitan centers. We would suffer many deaths from starvation there.

But in rural areas, people would just plant a bigger garden and slaughter an extra hog or cow and dip into the canned food in the cellar. They'd also load their empty shells and sharpen their rifle skills.

Re: Reasons to Fear Another ‘Great War’

#393

Post by Fjolsvith »

ip26 wrote: post #226
pvaldes wrote: post #171

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> After that, they are no longer a threat because there is no fuel. Not necessarily. I bet that the new replacement ecosystem will be, in fact, much more flammable. The water has quit the area.

The succession goes grassland, scrubland, forest. The grass is indeed more flammable, but the fires are much less intense. Dry cheatgrass, for example, flares up with incredible enthusiasm, but burns to ash in literally seconds.

Exactly. Lawns don't burn down homes.

Re: Reasons to Fear Another ‘Great War’

#394

Post by Fjolsvith »

us-throw1 wrote: post #19
AcerbicZero wrote: post #6

A modern "great war" would require countries of relatively equal military industrial power, so either it would be a great war without the US involved, i.e. China/India, Russia/China (with caveats), etc. In those situations the countries may temporarily forgo the use of nuclear weapons, at least until one side is pressed beyond the point of rational response. I'd also suggest the last time countries were so dominant i…

Are you really sure that the US is undisputed in those 4 categories? A list of obvious weaknesses: * The US economy and industrial power is dependent on IT and brittle supply chains. Nobody knows how much the cyber infrastructure holding this up is already compromised. * Russian S-400s can already deny air superiority to Israeli planes, which are not far behind US planes. * How does the US have space superiority when…

> Barely half of US fighter planes are combat ready at any given moment. The trillion dollar F-35 had to be flown with VFR the first time it crossed the IDL. Who knows what else is lurking in that software?

The US Air Force simply doesn't use it's full fleet at any given moment:

"For example, in 1969, 523 USAF fighter aircraft were deployed to Vietnam or Thailand, only 14 percent of the 3,838 fighters in the USAF inventory that year." [1]

1. https://www.rand.org/content/dam/rand/pubs/research_reports/..., p.20

Re: Reasons to Fear Another ‘Great War’

#395

Post by fit2rule »

abcd_f wrote: post #335
fit2rule wrote: post #329

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It takes a single Sunburn [0] to take out a carrier. There is no defence - yet. Of course, when the railgun and lasers are deployed, this all changes again, but in the meantime the US' carrier fleet is principally a policing tool, and would be dead in the water during an all-out war - assuming the US chooses to go against an enemy that has the Sunburn in its arsenal. [0] - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SS-N-22

Looks like these missiles are at least 20 year old. How come there's no defence against them yet?

They're simply too fast and too agile, employing evasion techniques. The only defence is lasers and railguns - thus, we're getting lasers and railguns Real Soon Now™.

Re: Reasons to Fear Another ‘Great War’

#396

Post by stevenwoo »

amanaplanacanal wrote: post #381
stevenwoo wrote: post #275

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I can remember folks in the Reagan adminstration regularly touted the possibility of winning a nuclear war and used that sort of rhetoric in elections. The other part of that is the fundamentalist Christians in the USA who believe in the literal interpretation of Revelations so for them there is greater glory in armageddon that begins with a conflict in Israel. And in power now, John Bolton is one of those guys who t…

I will say it is weird when it seems to make sense to be more scared of the people on your own side than the people on the enemy's side. Perhaps they have folks just as scary, though.

We almost went to war in 1983 - the political sloganeering by Reagan adminstration combined with the paranoia on the Soviet side (their double agents inside the West reported Able Archer 83 as an exercise but the Soviets interpreted the intel) made a military exercise for NATO appear to be the start of a first strike preparation. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Able_Archer_83

Re: Reasons to Fear Another ‘Great War’

#397

Post by AcerbicZero »

abcd_f wrote: post #335
fit2rule wrote: post #329

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It takes a single Sunburn [0] to take out a carrier. There is no defence - yet. Of course, when the railgun and lasers are deployed, this all changes again, but in the meantime the US' carrier fleet is principally a policing tool, and would be dead in the water during an all-out war - assuming the US chooses to go against an enemy that has the Sunburn in its arsenal. [0] - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SS-N-22

Looks like these missiles are at least 20 year old. How come there's no defence against them yet?

There are several already deployed defenses against these, and weapon systems similar to these. The basic chaff deployment systems, CIWS systems for close in defense, and several anit-missile missile systems can all be leveraged to provide defense against an incoming attack.

Additionally, the strongest carrier defense against weapons such as this is the size of the ocean, and their short(ish) range. You can't hit what you can't find, and/or what you can't get close too.

Re: Reasons to Fear Another ‘Great War’

#398

Post by A2017U1 »

bzbarsky wrote: post #263
A2017U1 wrote: post #220

Earlier quoted context omitted.

China hasn't invaded a country in 50 years and hasn't put an offensive military anywhere in decades. They very much keep to themselves as far as large economies go. Find the amount of yellow peril in this thread amusing. I guess no one really worries about the numerous invasions by US/UK/Allies

For most of that time China was not a "large economy". That said, your "50 years" number is conveniently eliding https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sino-Vietnamese_War which was closer to 40 years ago. Just because China failed to invade successfully doesn't change the fact that it invaded. As for China's future actions, we'll see what they are. So far, the territorial claims they are making are not looking like they will…

I'm not sure I'd call that an invasion, it was a 3 week assualt on the border in response to Vietnam deciding to go overthrow and occupy Cambodia and Laos, both of whom were supported by China.

There's not enough room in the comments to write down the last 50 years of US and allies boots on ground adventures bringing "peace" to the world.

Re: Reasons to Fear Another ‘Great War’

#399

Post by dorchadas »

threatofrain wrote: post #304
vermilingua wrote: post #157

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yes, by disillusioning yourself that any of those things matter. Ultimately, it doesn’t matter what god you pray to, because prayer is personal; doesn’t matter what nation you call your own, because emigration is easier than ever; and doesn’t matter what colour your skin is, because it doesn’t define you. Obviously all that is easier said than done, but really if you stop letting any kind of tribal attachment define…

National identity is rooted in language and culture. If people could easily speak two or three languages, the boundaries could become more fuzzy, but right now it seems like learning a real human language is harder than learning 10 programming languages.

Not really, though. Especially for the basics. In fact, multilingualism is still the general standard in the world, especially in places like Asia and Africa. And even Europe, where most learn English. Yes, it's difficult, but it can be easier if we stressed it from a younger age, or if people had need for it. Instead, they use language to distance themselves from people, not bring each other together.

Re: Reasons to Fear Another ‘Great War’

#400

Post by mercer »

TeMPOraL wrote: post #318
flukus wrote: post #150

Earlier quoted context omitted.

28 Days/Weeks/Months is a good zombie series set in the UK, it was mostly the military doing the fighting. I never could understand how zombies in the walking dead managed to overrun the US military and all their bases, many in the middle of the desert or other hard to reach places. When it comes to zombie attacks pointy sticks seem pretty effective anyway.

Walking Dead is a TV show that makes zero sense whatsoever. I dropped watching it after 2.5 seasons, because after season 1 it lost any semblance of a plot, and became a TV-show-equivalent of the very zombies it portrays - mindlessly wandering around. I can't understand why it is so popular.

IIRC the creator (Frank Darabont?) left after the first season, and the show has suffered tremendously since. The only reason for it's success is perhaps the love people had for zombies.

I watched a few of season 2's episodes, but gave up pretty quickly.

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