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What is happening to jobs? Separating AI hype from reality

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Re: What is happening to jobs? Separating AI hype from reality

#381

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Becomes a problem when the next version of Mac OS changes the api, and you have to dig up the code, install dependencies, recompile and fix it. Meanwhile potentially breaking something else.

No, you have an LLM do all that again.

Even with an LLM you still have to kick it off, which is mental effort.

Re: What is happening to jobs? Separating AI hype from reality

#382

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What about Uncle Bob of clean code? This is a bit embarrassing for you.

Uncle Bob was a dev celeb before there were dev celebs.

So far you have ignored celebs/stalwarts and normal people as well. So it is quite convenient to draw boundary that exactly includes people like you

Re: What is happening to jobs? Separating AI hype from reality

#383

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What about terry tao?

Who? But in all seriousness - you can even bring up Pope himself. Don't care. Show me data, show me the leaps our software made with all this 100x productivity boost. Show me a myriad of better LLVM projects, new usable kernels, and so on. Show me sharp decline in bugs and defects in existing projects. Keep blog posts and HN comments.

Do you want a graph of exploits found vs time? Erdos problems solved vs time?

Re: What is happening to jobs? Separating AI hype from reality

#384
post #2

A challenge with this kind of study is that coding agents (Claude Code, OpenAI Codex) only started working really well in late November, which for most people meant early January due to the December break. General agents (OpenClaw, Anthropic Copilot, ChatGPT "Work") started working even later than that. This category of software may have a much more meaningful impact on work than the mostly-chat systems we were using…

Anecdotally, I (along with the rest of my team) got laid off from a big tech company at the end of January. The stated reason was "AI", although I think as we all know the real reason was "we overhired in 2022". I managed to get a job by April without putting in a lot of work, though (mostly just listened to recruiters until something hit my fancy). My work experience is good, but I don't know if it's so good that I…

> I managed to get a job by April without putting in a lot of work

Congrats! Probably, you have the blessing of luck as well. One of my ex-colleagues got laid off and managed to find an uplevel job within a month, but another has been looking for almost 2 years now. He showed me that most of the jobs he applied to over the past two-ish years are still open, while they rejected him by saying the usual - we are moving forward with the candidates more aligned with the position.

Re: What is happening to jobs? Separating AI hype from reality

#385

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Are these companies slowly gaining rot in those codebases? Yes! And that "yes" holds regardless of whether they use AI or not. Let's not pretend tech debt accumulation is somehow an AI problem. Some of the world's biggest companies routinely ship code that reeks of years of rot and decay.

It's safe to say that most people romanticize their past experience. Anyone's "golden age" is someone else's "end times". Software has always sucked [1]. "Software crisis" was coined in 1968. There has been no period of time since that it got any better. Trauma just doesn't carry the same way that triumphs do. Perhaps people do not actually learn from their mistakes after all. [1]: https://www.stilldrinking.org/progr…

> Perhaps people do not actually learn from their mistakes after all.

which is the way the economy runs. cascades of PR narratives and economic measures carrying over upscaled patterns of the very same causal chain that makes people forget to self-debrief.

but most people enjoy being leisurely ignorant whenever they find themselves immersed in such qualia so even the brightest just smile while standing by ...

as long as we read, we will get hyped one way or another.

the issue seems that some narratives get disproportionate "air time" ... which, IMO, is exactly because there are so many bystanders among the capable & resourceful ...

Re: What is happening to jobs? Separating AI hype from reality

#386
post #146

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Are these companies slowly gaining rot in those codebases? Yes! And that "yes" holds regardless of whether they use AI or not. Let's not pretend tech debt accumulation is somehow an AI problem. Some of the world's biggest companies routinely ship code that reeks of years of rot and decay.

This is usually due to time pressure and cost. AI arguably substantially reduces that kind of pressure. I’m overall skeptical as well, but the argument about tech debt is more nuanced than your comment implies.

AI easily generates PR's with thousands of lines. I my company there's even a directive for agents to split up their work into multiple PR's based on some arbitrary metric of files/lines changed. When one of my colleagues uses AI to "implement" something, the amount of code I need to review is much much more. If I were to do review as I am supposed to, then AI is absolutely increasing the time and effort I have to put into a change (as opposed to the person who just writes a prompts and calls it a huge productivity boost).

There's the meme in programming that goes something like this "Give a programmer two lines of code to review and he'll find 20 issues. Give a programmer 500 lines to review and he's say that it looks good". At some point you simply cannot keep pace with the amount of generated code as a human.

Re: What is happening to jobs? Separating AI hype from reality

#387
post #263

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It tends to be when the training data wanders into their area of expertise temporarily and they go “OMG, they hype is real. I was so wrong” and then a few releases later they’re on the train and furious that the skills in their domain space have not just stopped improving, but regressed. Cue someone else in a different part of the world starting the same cycle. Meanwhile the guy who leaned in a year ago and gave up r…

> You can see these tropes all over social media near constantly. You should stop using social media as your yardstick.

This is entirely my point. Observing reality, you can see how little impact any of this is truly having. Decision making, communication and alignment is not helped at all by LLMs, it’s just leaving developers with more laundry.

Re: What is happening to jobs? Separating AI hype from reality

#388
post #341

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I'm not going to tell you how you should keep your family safe, or not. It's just absolutely crazy to me that you trust this experimental feature more than the manufacturer does.

[dead]

Yes, I'll continue stupidly looking at data and putting the safety of my family in the hands of the safer option. If only I could be smart enough to use emotion-based politics to make those decisions instead.

Re: What is happening to jobs? Separating AI hype from reality

#389

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I keep running into this as well. Someone shared a link to a study from last year telling me that AI doesn't make programmers as productive as they think. The study was obviously done months prior to it's release. So evaluating the state AI even further back. But this didn't seem to concern them. The study said X, therefore it applies to today. I'm just not sure it's worth it to argue with others about it at this poi…

> I'm just not sure it's worth it to argue with others about it at this point. This is the correct response. Let closed-minded people do their thing. Makes them less competitive against you. There's nothing for you to gain by trying to help them understand what they are missing.

wait, who's being closed-minded?

Re: What is happening to jobs? Separating AI hype from reality

#390
post #372
post #357

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>If they see enough AI posters pretty soon they will start to not care.. Wrong analogy. A marketing item wants you to look at it. It takes advantage of an involuntary impulse. A repetitive boring AI artwork will not trigger the impulse to look it. So it is not about "caring"....

Yes, but also. Right now GenAI content a bad thing, cringe, a sign of low-value or lack of attention to detail. I don't want to play even a free game if I think it was made by someone else prompting an AI, and that's despite liking the output when I do the same for myself. If AI output is normalised and becomes simply "boring" or "mundane", those negatives must have also gone away. After that (assuming there is an "a…

>I don't want to play even a free game if I think it was made by someone else prompting an AI

I have bad news for you if you think the video game industry isn't widely embracing generative AI. Companies try not to say it because of the current backlash involved but I truly believe Tim Sweeney isn't wrong[1]. I think in 5 years it will be a quaint idea to be AI-vegan and it'll be similar to how people resisted smartphones (I was one of them) until they became inevitable.

[1]https://www.techspot.com/news/110410-epic-tim-sweeney-ai-lab...

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