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OpenAI Is Preparing to File for an IPO Soon

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Re: OpenAI Is Preparing to File for an IPO Soon

#381

Post by [deleted] »

0xDEAFBEAD wrote: post #285
ismailmaj wrote: post #275

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Their moat is cuda and cuda libraries and everything built on top. When a new architecture drops, it's always PyTorch running on CUDA, other PyTorch backends are best effort, even if they reach feature parity, many industry power users went closer to the metal to squeeze performance and that stuff is too specific to Nvidia stuff. if there is something that will beat Nvidia, it won't be something reaching feature pari…

I don't understand why AMD can't offer a drop-in replacement for cuda which implements an identical API. How much actual diversity is there among standard AI workloads? I would expect this is an 80/20 thing where 80% of the workload uses 20% of the features. >Nvidia could just reduce their margins Commoditization is great for stock prices ;-)

[deleted]

Re: OpenAI Is Preparing to File for an IPO Soon

#382

Post by vablings »

hootz wrote: post #278
cultofmetatron wrote: post #257

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Deepseekv4 is freely available to download you can host your own and sell it keeping the proceeds and it rivals Claude Opus 4.7. good luck getting a machine that can run its specs though. Even flash is goign to require ponying up 5-10 grand to run the minimal specs for it. The vast majority of people will find their machine falls behind as tech progresses long before they get a return on that investment. That said,…

It's not "there will be", there already is a market of generic providers and you can use millions of tokens of DeepSeek-v4-flash for like 1 dollar. https://models.dev/?search=deepseek-v4-flash

Man, deepseek flash is so damn good, its pricing is insane compared to frontier models and I have found that its performance is about 80-90% of a frontier model for a literal fraction of a cost.

Re: OpenAI Is Preparing to File for an IPO Soon

#383

Post by dminik »

vanuatu wrote: post #365
dminik wrote: post #293

Earlier quoted context omitted.

How are the margins 50%+? There's an article from today where if they double their current revenue to $10.9B they will make ~$500M profit. Maybe I just can't count, but that's a margin of ~5% no? These numbers should be inference only: https://www.reuters.com/business/anthropic-nears-first-quart...

gross margin doesnt include opex, capex, overhead etc

On second thought, is this the reason anthropic is making these gigantic deals (1.2T to xAI, 200B to Google, >100B to AWS, 30B to Azure)? Is it just so that they can claim this is an amortized cost rather than a monthly reccuring operating cost?

Re: OpenAI Is Preparing to File for an IPO Soon

#384

Post by maerF0x0 »

mrandish wrote: post #380
wg0 wrote: post #99

If you're an investor you should try Deepseekv4 before you put your hard earned money in this gambling spree. Context - Deepseekv4 is freely available to download you can host your own and sell it keeping the proceeds and it rivals Claude Opus 4.7. "Thank you for your attention to this matter"

Ironically, for-profit Chinese companies have released far more Open AI than OpenAI. And they may be a key reason the for-profit OpenAI remains non-profitable. It's worth noting I suspect a key reason Chinese companies are doing this is, in part, tacit encouragement and logistical enablement from the Chinese government. Playing spoiler by nerfing the valuations of over-inflated U.S. AI leaders is a decent strategy gi…

They don't need to profit when they have a government backstop and a nationstate strategy in place. China beating America in AI isn't just about who gets to generate the images/videos of cats.

Re: OpenAI Is Preparing to File for an IPO Soon

#386

Post by kcb »

0xDEAFBEAD wrote: post #211
chvid wrote: post #190

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yep. Two simple boring bets on AI: NVIDIA and Google.

I still think NVIDIA is a bad bet--where is their moat in the long term? Doesn't the sort of work NVIDIA engineers do look vulnerable to AI-assisted automation? NVIDIA engineers code against a well-defined test suite/specification, right?

https://cdn.wccftech.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/04/NVIDIA-R...

Re: OpenAI Is Preparing to File for an IPO Soon

#387

Post by toyetic »

Interesting that they're doing it now I wonder why, it wasn't to long ago the CFO was reported as being strongly against it [1]

Personally I hope they do, everyone knows OpenAI is absolutely hemorrhaging money they don't have. In a perfect world an IPO becomes the rip the bandaid off moment for the AI bubble and we can start adjusting the industry as a whole towards a more reasonable world where AI tooling in the market is valued by actual utility and sustainable revenue rather than hype-driven speculation.

[1] https://www.wheresyoured.at/openai-cfo-news/

Re: OpenAI Is Preparing to File for an IPO Soon

#388

Post by 48terry »

signatoremo wrote: post #279
48terry wrote: post #132

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> its June quarter sales could reach at least $10.9 billion It COULD reach $10.9 billion. It COULD also completely shit itself and go bust. We'll just all have a fun time finding out together, won't we, investors?

Do this: pick a public company (because their numbers are available), look at their quarterly reports in the last 3 years. Check the numbers they forecasted for the subsequent quarter. Verify how bad they missed. See how likely they could "completely shit itself and go bust". Hint: extremely unlikely.

What in the hell are you babbling about? Talking about what public companies do versus what the black mystery box with a question mark on it does is asinine. The entire point of this shit is that Anthropic's numbers AREN'T available. They can say whatever the fuck they want. This is why trying to get a straight answer out of them about their revenues and profits and overall business model is like the riddle of the sphinx. They have no obligation to report finances in the same way public companies are obligated to.

Ever notice that, by the way? There's a lot of exciting, non-GAAP shit going around in this field.

You're looking at this on the idea of a missed prediction. That's not where I'm at with this. I think Anthropic is straight-up lying. I think they are genuinely making shit up. This isn't a financial forecast, it's bullshit to hype up investors without actually having to prove it's based on anything whatsoever. It's either pure bullshit, or the numbers are so massaged and delivered at such a highly specific angle that it only becomes a logical way to display data if you're an MBA with a concussion.

We have absolutely 0 reason to believe what they're saying is true. We have lots of reasons to believe they'll say shit if they think they'll get more money out of it (see: every time they open their mouths and journalists rush to copy-paste the quote into headlines).

Re: OpenAI Is Preparing to File for an IPO Soon

#390

Post by phatfish »

cheinic6493 wrote: post #272
andsoitis wrote: post #179

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> My returns are around 20 percent per year for years. That's unbelievable! Even Warren Buffet only makes 19% - 20% compounded every year. That would make you one of the top investors ever.

> Even Warren Buffet only makes 19% - 20% compounded every year. That would make you one of the top investors ever. Not really. Plenty of hedge funds and HFT firms make 40-100% each year (before fees) over 30-40 years… Citadel’s “stock picking ability” is 40% annual returns since 1999 They just don’t advertise this because it’ll make retail traders and passive ETF investors really sad

I doubt it makes people sad (well not me at least) because the buy in to get Citadel to invest for you is what 10? 50 million?

You could hit up juleiie from above for his/her winning method I suppose, or you put a portion of your savings into an appropriate ETF and get on with your life.

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