Earlier quoted context omitted.
The only thing that we are sure can't be highly compressed is knowledge, because you can only fit so much information in given entropy budget without losing fidelity. The minimal size limits of reasoning abilities are not clear at all. It could be that you don't need all that many parameters. In which case the door is open for small focused models to converge to parity with larger models in reasoning ability. If that…
> and only calling out to large models when they actually need the extra knowledge When would you want lossy encoding of lots of data bundled together with your reasoning? If it is true that reasoning can be done efficiently with fewer parameters it seems like you would always want it operating normal data searching and retrieval tools to access knowledge rather than risk hallucination. And re: this discussion of lar…
Apple's accidental moat: How the "AI Loser" may end up winning
381–390 of 402 posts
Re: Apple's accidental moat: How the "AI Loser" may end up winning
#382This is the classic apple approach - wait to understand what the thing is capable of doing (aka let others make sunk investments), envision a solution that is way better than the competition and then architect a path to building a leapfrog product that builds a large lead.
Yea, they nailed that with the Newton, Apple Pippin, and the Apple Vision Pro
Re: Apple's accidental moat: How the "AI Loser" may end up winning
#383Earlier quoted context omitted.
Nvidia-Mediatek Arm laptops will compete with Qualcomm and Apple, https://www.forbes.com/sites/jonmarkman/2026/03/16/the-arm-i... [WSJ] sources expect.. first units in H1 2026, with GTC as the most likely unveiling stage.. NPU reportedly exceeds both Intel and AMD’s current neural processing units.. If the integrated GPU delivers RTX 5070-class performance in a thin laptop form factor, it would eliminate the need for…
If they can get Valve/Steam for an OS that handles most games well that could in fact be huge if the pricepoint is a bit lower initially but with plenty of unified RAM (both for AI but also games). That said, gaming laptops cooling issues are so often around the GPU so it'd also require a seasoned manufacturer to make it correctly.
Re: Apple's accidental moat: How the "AI Loser" may end up winning
#384This is the classic apple approach - wait to understand what the thing is capable of doing (aka let others make sunk investments), envision a solution that is way better than the competition and then architect a path to building a leapfrog product that builds a large lead.
Re: Apple's accidental moat: How the "AI Loser" may end up winning
#385Earlier quoted context omitted.
If they can get Valve/Steam for an OS that handles most games well that could in fact be huge if the pricepoint is a bit lower initially but with plenty of unified RAM (both for AI but also games). That said, gaming laptops cooling issues are so often around the GPU so it'd also require a seasoned manufacturer to make it correctly.
NVidia already has the Shield, and GeForce NOW.
There is Steamdeck and SteamMachine (That can double as a desktop and still X86 based), only real thing missing in that lineup is a laptop for factor machine and if NVidia can provide a bit cooler and fairly power efficient alternative (gaming laptops are still damn loud) it could very well be dang enticing for many.
Re: Apple's accidental moat: How the "AI Loser" may end up winning
#386Earlier quoted context omitted.
The only thing that we are sure can't be highly compressed is knowledge, because you can only fit so much information in given entropy budget without losing fidelity. The minimal size limits of reasoning abilities are not clear at all. It could be that you don't need all that many parameters. In which case the door is open for small focused models to converge to parity with larger models in reasoning ability. If that…
> and only calling out to large models when they actually need the extra knowledge When would you want lossy encoding of lots of data bundled together with your reasoning? If it is true that reasoning can be done efficiently with fewer parameters it seems like you would always want it operating normal data searching and retrieval tools to access knowledge rather than risk hallucination. And re: this discussion of lar…
So I think it's useful to have an imprecise-but-fairly-accurate set of world knowledge as part of an otherwise reasoning-heavy model. It's a cache.
And if the it's an LLM, or something like that, I think it basically has to have world-knowledge built in, because what is natural language if not communication about the world?
Re: Apple's accidental moat: How the "AI Loser" may end up winning
#387Earlier quoted context omitted.
NVidia already has the Shield, and GeForce NOW.
Isn't that a streaming device+service? I'm more thinking in on lines that the DGX devices can run fairly moden games like Cyperpunk at good framerates, the Windows foothold has been games and enterprise, and an ARM device with a mainstream GPU together with the work Valve has done to make Steam devices. There is Steamdeck and SteamMachine (That can double as a desktop and still X86 based), only real thing missing in…
Re: Apple's accidental moat: How the "AI Loser" may end up winning
#388Earlier quoted context omitted.
It’s even more superpowered than previous implementations of this strategy. When they made the iPhone, iPod, and Apple Watch they had no specific hardware advantage over competitors. Especially with early iPhone and iPod: no moat at all, make a better product with better marketing and you’ll beat Apple. Now? Good luck getting any kind of reasonably priced laptop or phone that can run local AI as well as the iPhone/Ma…
All three of those products launched with custom hardware made by partnered manufacturers. At iPhone launch, I seem to remember Apple still having quite a bit of the flash ram market tied up from their exclusive iPod contracts - Apple basically helped finance new factories to be spun up in return for exclusive access to their production. The Apple Watch had the S1 system on package, which included an Apple custom CPU…
Samsung literally makes flash memory and was one of the primary competitors of the iPhone along with its Microsoft Windows Mobile/Phone and/or Android products of that era.
Are you saying that iPhone competitors couldn’t have made similar investments in factories and couldn’t have secured flash chips? These were all mega-corporations like Microsoft, Samsung, LG, and Nokia.
Android had been in negotiations with companies like Samsung and LG in 2005 before Google acquired them. In a very slightly alternate universe, Android could have been acquired by a powerhouse phone OEM like Samsung rather than Google, who I would argue squandered Android’s potential. To this very day Google struggles to make competitive hardware with their platform.
The iPhone launched as one of the most expensive smartphones on the market. The iPhone launched from a company with zero experience in selling cellular devices and a very small list of cellular networks who would even work with them.
Their competitors had ample opportunity to respond, but simply could not execute. In a very very slightly alternate universe, something like the Nokia/Microsoft partnership would have obliterated Apple.
The Apple Watch had no hardware advantage in the sense that it had no special capabilities above competitors. Yes, Apple custom-designed the SoC, but it wasn’t considered ahead of its competition. The LG G Watch and Moto 360 were available contemporaneous or earlier than the Apple Watch and the Apple Watch had no specific advantage in terms of performance, battery life, etc.
What made the Apple Watch a lot different from the iPhone was the ecosystem that Apple had built up to this point, Apple’s focus on watches as a fashion purchase and failure of competitors to recognize the same, and Apple’s arguably-illegal restriction of competing smartwatch devices on their dominant mobile platform (which the EU is forcing them to open up on now).
Re: Apple's accidental moat: How the "AI Loser" may end up winning
#389Earlier quoted context omitted.
The biggest region in term of revenues for Apple revenues is all americas but it is still only around 43%, which means Apple still makes money from Africa, Europe, Asia and Ocenia combined than the whole american continent. So that is even less for the USA. https://bullfincher.io/companies/apple/revenue-by-geography
You are doing a lot of heavy lifting lumping Europe and Asia together, and inserting Africa and Oceana, which is so small Apple doesn't even report revenue for it. North America is 43% Europe is 27% China 15% Japan 7% Rest of Asia: 8% Africa, middle east, oceania effective round to 0% Basically North America and Japan make up 50% of Apple's revenue, but are nowhere near 50% of global GDP or population.
Re: Apple's accidental moat: How the "AI Loser" may end up winning
#390Earlier quoted context omitted.
"Google had the best search engine, it became a centre of gravity..." Almost no one made serious attempts at competing with Google. And not because of network effects or any other hard blocker. In the early 2000s, the industry just wasn't mature enough to heavily fund serious competition. By the 2020s the industry has funding and founders ready to jump on any huge opportunity that presents itself. There are of course…
Yahoo? MSN Search?