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What happens when US economic data becomes unreliable

mitsloan.mit.edu

381–390 of 418 posts

Re: What happens when US economic data becomes unreliable

#381

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Once basic needs are well met then wealth is meaningless in absolute terms. It only matters in relative terms where you compare yourself to others. For the super billionaires, adding more zeros to their net worth has diminishing returns because their lives just can't get any materially better. So the relative subjective gap doesn't widen. In fact, if other groups make gains then the relative subjective gap can even s…

I’m sorry, but this is nonsense. Yes, there’s a point beyond which more wealth doesn’t matter much in absolute terms, but it’s way beyond “basic needs”. Having nice cars, nice homes, traveling, paying for expensive education, having staff help you with things, flying first class, flying private, vacationing on a yacht, collecting art, etc, etc. There are near endless things to spend wealth on, and new things get unlo…

I mean yes you are correct here, but by the time you are in the 10s of billions phase you just don't see any difference in lifestyle.

Re: What happens when US economic data becomes unreliable

#382
post #220
post #62

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I agree. The super rich have been in "prepper" mode for a long time now https://www.theguardian.com/news/2022/sep/04/super-rich-prep... > They started out innocuously and predictably enough. Bitcoin or ethereum? Virtual reality or augmented reality? Who will get quantum computing first, China or Google? Eventually, they edged into their real topic of concern: New Zealand or Alaska? Which region would be less affected…

The very plot of rainbow 6, a 1998 Tom Clancy novel, except the preppers are actually helping the catastrophes along. And, if I’m not misremembering, of Silo as well.

Yes -- in Wool (Silo), the silo builders launch the nukes / biological weapons. The weird thing about the Silo universe is that Hugh Howey thinks the mass murderers were the good guys.

Re: What happens when US economic data becomes unreliable

#383
post #290

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I've never met a single person willing to attest to filling out a BLS survey. Not once. If their methodology is built on that + unemployment data from State Unemployment agencies + data from payroll processors, anyone not collecting state unemployment benefits is invisible to the system, and half of the payroll is actually not even consituted of U.S. Citizens. Admittedly, if I could find a single instance of someone…

> if I could find a single instance of someone willing to vouch or share insight on having filled out a BLS survey, that'd cure a healthy chunk of skepticism It comes from the Census bureau, a letter like this: https://old.reddit.com/r/frederickmd/comments/1p1j1my/did_an... https://www.google.com/search?udm=2&q=%22current+population+... They only reach ~100k unique households per year, so you'd need to survey a few h…

See, Census letters are one thing. BLS is another. I've actually received Census letters. BLS ones, not so much, and given they claim to be collecting data through surveys all the damn time, I'd expect to have been able to find someone who filled one out. It's weird, to me, that my luck has been so bad in finding someone with context on it. At best I only find someone who knows BLS uses surveys as part of their methodology, usually through reference to the site. No one ever seems to be able to primary vouch for having been the one surveyed.

>How might one distinguish such "scepticism" from ignorance?

Ignorance doesn't seek to invalidate itself. Scepticism does. It does not enrich my life knowing there's a methodology to collect a "high value statistic", but not finding any on the ground proof of people who actually have primary exposure to the methodology. One can't reason around what the system is actually measuring without a sampling of that. I can find screenshots of UI at times. I find papers around low response rates. I never find an actual person who says "Yeah, I get dinged to do those every few months, once every few years..." I sure as hell know when I'm gathering statistical data, that sampling bias evaluation requires foot work, and if you do that footwork, if your methodology works, it shouldn't take you that long to run into someone you've surveyed if you're doing it right. If you're not, and only hitting "the usual suspects", you're not getting a representative sample/measuring what you think you are. So I look for payroll people or people who have done payroll in the U.S. and ask if they've actually ever been directed to provide input. I've been doing it the last few years. Nobody seems to recall ever having been asked to participate in what amounts to billion dollar money movement at stake jury duty.

So yeah. This is kind of a weird tic of mine at the moment. Ranks right up there with the time I felt the inexplicable urge to figure out what the deal with zoning as applied to city planning was and how it worked. Something just doesn't add up. I hate that. Mental equivalent of a thumb detection via hammer.

Re: What happens when US economic data becomes unreliable

#384

Earlier quoted context omitted.

My argument wasn't that there shouldn't be revisions though, only that recent years have shown consistent negative revisions rather then a roughly even distribution. If response rates are down or something else is making surveys more difficult, its reasonable that confidence windows would weaken and size of revisions would increase. Its unreasonable that difficulty in surveying would lead to a consistent bias in resu…

> My argument wasn't that there shouldn't be revisions though, only that recent years have shown consistent negative revisions rather then a roughly even distribution. It's been to too many moons since I took a prob/stats course to comment accurately on population sampling, but how valid is the assumption that errors 'should' skew both positive and negative?

If errors are skewed in one direction there would likely have to be a factor forcing it, like sampling and response bias.

That's always possible, though again I question the validity of the measure and results if its getting consistently skewed results. Either the methodology is faulty or the results simply can't be trusted because they can't reliably get good data.

Re: What happens when US economic data becomes unreliable

#385

Hasen't that been the case for decades?

Really, when you look at it first hand over more than just a few decades, what's all the debate about?

What happens is what you're seeing right now.

Same as ever.

Any unflattering statistics still existing that were originally designed to reveal, were reversed during applicable times of desperation in case they revealed too much.

Leaving almost nothing that does not serve to conceal instead, often more well crafted to conceal the exact thing expected and relied upon to be revealed.

Re: What happens when US economic data becomes unreliable

#386
post #330

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Or a hundred more $100+ millionaires who aren't preppers? This. I live in Wyoming and frequent the Bay Area, New York and some places in Europe and India. The rich preppers are rare. (And mostly techies or oil men.) It’s mostly a middle-class pursuit, the singler and older and maler the person, the more likely they own clothing in camo. If they’ve spent any time in a military or intelligence service, their “preppin…

> (Though one retired special ops guy who started military contracting kept a map of the bunkers. I think as a joke. The saying being a well-stocked bunker owned by an asshole is a good target for a group of guys with guns.) This made me laugh, as ultra wealthy preppers worrying about same (upthread) boils down to imposter syndrome: how can any of them be sure any of their individual value will still be valuable afte…

Yeah in the Road Warrior post-apocalypse future, no one is saying "We need a billionaire job creator!"

Re: What happens when US economic data becomes unreliable

#387
post #271

Earlier quoted context omitted.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Donald_Trump_sexual_misconduct...

Notice how this information is a publically accessible web server? This is quite unusual definition of "kompromat". Look, when it comes to Trump, at this point, there likely is no "kompromat" that would affect him. He could have raped and murdered a 5 year old at the behest of Russian intelligence services, and his MAGA base would defend it as somehow part of God's grand plan for the republic. What is there that coul…

Epstein was notorious for having compromising photos and videos of just about everyone who did anything compromising in his periphery. Are we shocked that Trumps own DOJ has not revealed a smoking gun? Do we forget that his name has been redacted by his own DOJ?

Re: What happens when US economic data becomes unreliable

#388
post #242
post #237

Earlier quoted context omitted.

How is this information collected? When I was looking for work after grad school I didn't report to anyone as such. The school had no idea whether or not I was actively looking. I was denied unemployment. I'm not sure what my info might have looked like on the IRS end if that is what is being abrogated.

https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.faq.htm It also specifically says unemployment figures isn't solely from state unemployment insurance figures.

I see, so they don't capture that data well as they admit. household survey has a high margin of error. You have to also consider signal to noise ratio of some of these data and whether the survey even has the power to detect the signal. My grad school cohort for example was 15 people for the entire department. That is about as large as they get for PhD in most STEM fields. What are the odds this sort of employment sector is captured well in the household survey data?

Re: What happens when US economic data becomes unreliable

#389
post #298
post #273

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Take a drive on an interstate highways. Whenever I take an Uber/Lyft to the airport I ask the usually (more like 100%) foreign born driver to compare the highway (I5) and the airport (SeaTac) with the same from his country. The comparison is bad for the US. US is a third world country, but Americans do no want to admit that.

> I ask the usually (more like 100%) foreign born driver to compare the highway (I5) and the airport (SeaTac) with the same from his country. The comparison is bad for the US. > US is a third world country, but Americans do no want to admit that. So why do so many people want to keep coming here?

Still better than the third world. For instance, UK is seen as a vassal state of US, and it lost its old glory. Still people want to migrate to UK. Many French speaking folks from Africa want to migrate to France and others.

Politicians and folks in the third world are not keen on developing their own countries. Clean water, clean energy, better education, less corruption are not something they are striving for. Politicians there want to make money for generations, while sending their kids to US/UK/EU for studies, while at the same time selling bad policies for public (freebies, this or that scheme just to garner power to make more money off looting via contracts, natural resources).

Re: What happens when US economic data becomes unreliable

#390

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> but job reports data over recent years have noticeably shifted towards downward monthly revisions. Prior to the pandemic response, the graph [1] looks much more balanced with regards to positive and negative decisions Yes. The reasons for this are well documented. Changing methodology for the preview estimates is rigorous. That means our published estimates lag best estimates, something the primary sources note in…

Why would the shift to a new methodology bias the estimates to one end? I would expect a new methodology to make comparisons of data between the two systems to potentially be unhelpful, but I wouldn't expect a valid methodology to bias one way or another. Related, I wouldn't expect past data to bias a current estimate. If 6 or 12 months of positive growth biases the next prediction it falls into the hot hands fallacy…

> If 6 or 12 months of positive growth biases the next prediction it falls into the hot hands fallacy

It’s a sample of a sample. The full sample is the final release. The early results are the preliminary releases. When firms change things they take longer to respond. So whichever way the economy is moving, there will be bias in that direction. If the economy is turning, you won’t know direction. If it’s accelerating or slowing down you don’t know magnitude. Sometimes context clues can help. Sometimes they can’t. There is no known statistical treatment for intuiting the missing data before one has it11

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