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Iran's Ayatollah Ali Khamenei is killed in Israeli strike, ending 36-year rule

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Re: Iran's Ayatollah Ali Khamenei is killed in Israeli strike, ending 36-year rule

#381

Post by lucketone »

indubioprorubik wrote: post #332
jcranmer wrote: post #30

Earlier quoted context omitted.

As I understand it, the IGRC doesn't particularly rub happily with the clerical council, and it's not entirely clear to me who will win that the power struggle. But the ultimate loser of the power struggle is clear: the Iranian populace at large, as all of the viable factions are quite committed to consolidating their power by repressing the population. The most likely situation, I think, looks a lot like Libya.

Islamic societies seem to be unable to form stable institutions. The recipe seems to be unable to synthesize this, no matter how many ressources are available and how benign the conditions. As a result the biggest formable state-institution remains the family clan and the family clan just does not cut it in preventing civil war. At best you get a clan-coalition masquerading as a military government with some democrat…

How about Indonesia?

Re: Iran's Ayatollah Ali Khamenei is killed in Israeli strike, ending 36-year rule

#382

Post by p2detar »

mango7283 wrote: post #309
Jensson wrote: post #290

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I can't think of any time when bombing the shit out of a country and killing their leader has actually worked. Japan? Although their leader wasn't killed, but same logic. The more civilized a country is the easier it is to reform them into a good state, and Iran is a pretty civilized and structured nation, the dictatorship is the main issue. Most people in Iran want a democracy and are capable of running it, you ju…

The Americans had to occupy and place both Japan and West Germany under their military rule afterwards to make it stick, that's not a comparison

I disagree. After the bombing, the Emperor himself broadcasted a surrender message [0] to the people of Japan. The occupation was also for more lighter than in Germany. Japan had full control of its administration and its government continued to operate. In that context whether we like or not, it very much worked.

0 - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hirohito_surrender_broadcast

Re: Iran's Ayatollah Ali Khamenei is killed in Israeli strike, ending 36-year rule

#383

Post by bambax »

TulliusCicero wrote: post #219
bambax wrote: post #143

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If what matters is the number of people killed, the next two should be Putin and Netanyahu. Yet I have a feeling that will not happen.

Pretty much by definition, dictators do not allow themselves to be removed by the people through peaceful means, which is why it's easy to draw a line there. If someone's a dictator, it's morally okay to kill them. Always.

Why isn't Trump bombarding the Kremlin? Isn't Putin a much larger threat to world peace than any leader of Iran?

Also, it's never "morally okay" to kill anyone, ever; the fact that the US still has the death penalty shows how little they understand about morals and logic.

Re: Iran's Ayatollah Ali Khamenei is killed in Israeli strike, ending 36-year rule

#384

Post by christkv »

orthogonal_cube wrote: post #135
pinkmuffinere wrote: post #39

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It’s no guarantee, but it is a good opportunity. I’m half-Persian, and certainly not as closely connected as others, but it’s hard to see this as a bad thing. There’s a possibility I can go visit my family in Iran as a result of this. I haven’t had a good chance for that in like 4 years

Removal of the head of state is often a turning point. Either a regime becomes more extreme or the government collapses due to in-fighting as individuals attempt to gain control. I would hold back on any hopes until we see how the current government handles things. Intervention from other countries does not always lead to positive outcomes.

It's likely the regime will be denied use of heavy weaponry by the US and Israel. This means any actual popular revolt in some sense could be supported by massive air power.

Re: Iran's Ayatollah Ali Khamenei is killed in Israeli strike, ending 36-year rule

#385

Post by christkv »

suoloordi wrote: post #173
programmertote wrote: post #2

Either this will end in a fractured state with different factions OR another Ayatollah will be in charge. Just my guess from seeing similar stories play out in other countries though....

Iran is not like other countries in the region. Despite its shortcomings, it's a cohesive society. I'm certain that there will be no fracturing and a central authority will emerge.

From my reading I get the feeling it has more in common with Spain and Portugal before the fall of the dictatorships.

Re: Iran's Ayatollah Ali Khamenei is killed in Israeli strike, ending 36-year rule

#386

Post by stavros »

worldsavior wrote: post #95
tejohnso wrote: post #52

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There would likely be millions of Americans celebrating the murder of their current president, should that happen. It doesn't mean it's reasonable, right, just, or civilized, nor would it indicate that it was a unanimously supported action.

[flagged]

Wait, Trump didn't kill any US citizen? Have we been watching the same news?

Re: Iran's Ayatollah Ali Khamenei is killed in Israeli strike, ending 36-year rule

#388

Post by jacquesm »

orthogonal_cube wrote: post #135
pinkmuffinere wrote: post #39

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It’s no guarantee, but it is a good opportunity. I’m half-Persian, and certainly not as closely connected as others, but it’s hard to see this as a bad thing. There’s a possibility I can go visit my family in Iran as a result of this. I haven’t had a good chance for that in like 4 years

Removal of the head of state is often a turning point. Either a regime becomes more extreme or the government collapses due to in-fighting as individuals attempt to gain control. I would hold back on any hopes until we see how the current government handles things. Intervention from other countries does not always lead to positive outcomes.

And/or neighboring countries see their chance to start another front in the war.

Re: Iran's Ayatollah Ali Khamenei is killed in Israeli strike, ending 36-year rule

#389

Post by stavros »

TulliusCicero wrote: post #62
tejohnso wrote: post #52

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There would likely be millions of Americans celebrating the murder of their current president, should that happen. It doesn't mean it's reasonable, right, just, or civilized, nor would it indicate that it was a unanimously supported action.

But in the case of an actual dictator who murdered thousands of protestors it is reasonable, right, just, and civilized. Shed no tears for the deaths of tyrants. They would happily see you and any other threat to their illegitimate power put six feet under.

I can feel OK about Khamenei dying and still worry about what it means that the US can just murder anyone in the world just because.
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