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The Waymo World Model

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381–390 of 699 posts

Re: The Waymo World Model

#381
post #312
post #265

All this work is impressive, but I'd rather have better trains

As someone who lives in the Bay Area we already have trains, and they're literally past the point of bankruptcy because they (1) don't actually charge enough maintain the variable cost of operations, (2) don't actually make people pay at all, and (3) don't actually enforce any quality of life concerns short of breaking up literal fights. All of this creates negative synergies that pushes a huge, mostly silent segment…

You're definitely right on (2) and (3). I've used many transit systems across the world (including TransMilenio in Bogota and other latam countries "renowned" for crime) and I have never felt as unsafe as I have using transit in the SFBA. Even standing at bus stops draws a lot of attention from people suffering with serious addiction/mental health problems.

1) is a bit simplistic though. I don't know of any European system that would cover even operating costs out of fare/commercial revenue. Potentially the London Underground - but not London buses. UK National Rail had higher success rates

The better way to look at it imo is looking at the economic loss as well of congestion/abandoned commutes. To do a ridiculous hypothetical, London would collapse entirely if it didn't have transit. Perhaps 30-40% of inner london could commute by car (or walk/bike), so the economic benefit of that variable transit cost is in the hundreds of billions a year (compared to a small subsidy).

It's not the same in SFBA so I guess it's far easier to just "write off" transit like that, it is theoretically possible (though you'd probably get some quite extreme additional congestion on the freeways as even that small % moving to cars would have an outsized impact on additional congestion).

Re: The Waymo World Model

#382
post #377

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>I've never really thought of Waymo as a robot in the same way as e.g. a Boston Dynamics humanoid, but of course it is a robot of sorts. So for the record, with this realization you're 3+ years behind Tesla. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ODSJsviD_SU&t=3594s

Aren't they still using safety drivers or safety follow cars and in fewer cities? Seems Tesla is pretty far behind.

What do you think I said that you're contradicting?

IMO the presence of safety chase vehicles is just a sensible "as low as reasonably achievable" measure during the early rollout. I'm not sure that can (fairly) be used as a point against them.

I'm comfortably with Tesla sparing no expense for safety, since I think we all (including Tesla) understand that this isn't the ultimate implementation. In fact, I think it would be a scandal if Tesla failed to do exactly that.

Damned if you do and damned if you don't, apparently.

Re: The Waymo World Model

#383
post #377

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Aren't they still using safety drivers or safety follow cars and in fewer cities? Seems Tesla is pretty far behind.

What do you think I said that you're contradicting? IMO the presence of safety chase vehicles is just a sensible "as low as reasonably achievable" measure during the early rollout. I'm not sure that can (fairly) be used as a point against them. I'm comfortably with Tesla sparing no expense for safety, since I think we all (including Tesla) understand that this isn't the ultimate implementation. In fact, I think it wo…

I don't know if Tesla claiming they're doing something carries weight anymore.

Re: The Waymo World Model

#384

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Humans: 70 deaths in 7 billion miles FSD: 2 deaths in 7 billion miles Looks like FSD saves lives by a margin so fat it can probably survive most statistical games.

Is that the official Tesla stat? I've heard of way more Tesla fatalities than that..

There are a sizeable number of deaths associated with the abuse of Tesla’s adaptive cruise control with lane cantering (publicly marketed as “autopilot”). Such features are commonplace on many new cars and it is unclear whether Tesla is an outlier, because no one is interested in obsessively researching cruise control abuse among other brands.

There are two deaths associated with FSD.

Re: The Waymo World Model

#385
post #279
post #265

All this work is impressive, but I'd rather have better trains

Isn't a vehicle that goes from anywhere to anywhere on your own schedule, safely, privately, cleanly, and without billions in subsidies better?

>without billions in subsidies

Is there a magic road wand?

Re: The Waymo World Model

#386
post #300
post #271

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Monocular depth estimation can be fooled by adversarial images, or just scenes outside of its distribution. It's a validation nightmare and a joke for high reliability.

It isn't monocular though. A Tesla has 2 front-facing cameras, narrow and wide-angle. Beyond that, it is only neural nets at this point, so depth estimation isn't directly used; it is likely part of the neural net, but only the useful distilled elements.

I never said it was. I was using it as a lower bound for what was possible.

Re: The Waymo World Model

#387
post #312
post #265

All this work is impressive, but I'd rather have better trains

As someone who lives in the Bay Area we already have trains, and they're literally past the point of bankruptcy because they (1) don't actually charge enough maintain the variable cost of operations, (2) don't actually make people pay at all, and (3) don't actually enforce any quality of life concerns short of breaking up literal fights. All of this creates negative synergies that pushes a huge, mostly silent segment…

[deleted]

Re: The Waymo World Model

#389

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think Elon announced Tesla was ditching LIDAR in 2019.[0] This was before Mobileye offered LIDAR. Mobileye has used LIDAR from Luminar Technologies around 2022-2025. [1][2] They were developing their own lidar, but cancelled it. [3] They chose Innoviz Technologies as their LIDAR partner going forward for future product lines. [4] 0: https://techcrunch.com/2019/04/22/anyone-relying-on-lidar-is... 1: https://static.m…

The original Mobileye EyeQ3 devices that Tesla began installing in their cars in 2013 had only a single forward facing camera. They were very simple devices, only intended to be used for lane keeping. Tesla hacked the devices and pushed them beyond their safe design constraints. Then that guy got decapitated when his Model S drove under a semi-truck that was crossing the highway and Mobileye terminated the contract.…

Thank you!

Re: The Waymo World Model

#390
post #310

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Neither do cars?

Drivers, however, absolutely do. And I do not see enough drivers voting away their own ability to drive any time soon.

Right, I was pointing out that at some point there was probably a horse-rider constituency as there is a driver constituency today.
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