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Tesla is committing automotive suicide

electrek.co

381–390 of 458 posts

Re: Tesla is committing automotive suicide

#381

I think this makes a lot of sense if he puts all the effort into Optimus and makes it a really good robot. Once you have a really good robot, you do not need the car to self-drive, the robot can drive any car (or truck). I know it is very hard, but as we should have learned by now Elon loves very hard problems and this is exactly in his wheelhouse. It may all have been in his plans considering how he was very opposed…

MDS is real. Just as real as TDS.

I have Model Y and FSD. FDS is light years away from its competition

Re: Tesla is committing automotive suicide

#382

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The DeLorean was a stupidly-expensive car that had a lot of maintenance problems, decided to use an unpainted stainless steel exterior and had corrosion issues as a result, but is remembered despite all of this engineering mediocrity due to its unusual stylistic choices. I'm guessing Tesla's cybertruck will be the DeLorean of the 2020s.

If you want to restrict the discussion to just the Cybertruck, it's more like the Edsel - an embarrassing failure from a dominant manufacturer. The Delorean similarities are largely skin-deep. Also probably 99% of people here are familiar with Deloreans and stainless steel.

In what world is Tesla a dominant manufacturer? The company's market share peaked at 4.31% in 2023. That's behind GM, Toyota, Ford, Hyundai, Stellantis (Chrysler/Dodge/Jeep), Honda, and Nissan-Mitsubishi. Only VW, Subaru, and BMW had a smaller market share.

Re: Tesla is committing automotive suicide

#385
post #323

Earlier quoted context omitted.

And in Musk’s case, “longer” means “abandoned”. Like the cheap model 3. Or the Hyperloop. Or swappable batteries. Or X as an everything app that includes banking.

In everyone else’s case too. This was supposed to be a Startup News site. Instagram was supposed to be a way to check into cool places in your neighbourhood and see who was around.

In both of those cases, the platforms actually did those things at some point in time and for one later pivoted a few times.

When did SpaceX do Earth-to-Earth commercial travel service? How many people have ridden on a BFR?

Re: Tesla is committing automotive suicide

#386
post #2

What makes this move even more incredulous is that none of the two market they want to move towards are proven markets: - Waymo is generating less than 150m in 2025. - Consumer robotics is an absolute unknown. How can the transition be rationally justified? Let alone the valuation.

Tesla processes as many miles in 2 days as Waymo in its entire lifetime. Waymo will be crushed in few years.

And yet Tesla's FSD v14 critical disengagement rate is behind where Waymo was over a decade ago, when Waymo first started reporting this figure, even worse in city driving to compare apples to apples.

Re: Tesla is committing automotive suicide

#387

Earlier quoted context omitted.

They are certainly far behind their original schedule, but do you mean to suggest that they are not making progress? If the original schedules hadn't been made public knowledge, the progress they have made would seem quite fast-paced.

If Waymo didn't exist, maybe.

If Waymo didn't exist, we'd instead be lauding the progress of Wayve, Pony, and WeRide.

At this point, Tesla have the potential to be at best maybe #5 globally. No wonder they're so desperate to hide behind a tariff wall in their home market.

Re: Tesla is committing automotive suicide

#388

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I always thought Toyota's LE connoted Luxury Edition and SE Sport Edition

You are right -- I just looked it up. All the same, the LE is the low-end Corolla model and I wouldn't have ever guessed it meant luxury edition.

In the 1980s, it was the high-end trim line, more or less across the board. I believe it gradually drifted down as special trim lines for different models were added until it was the base line on everything.

Re: Tesla is committing automotive suicide

#389
post #241

Earlier quoted context omitted.

EVs are a solved problem, but as amelius notes the real tech is the battery. Tesla + Panasonic has a built in advantage in terms of battery manufacturing. Tesla has a massive amount of capital, if they put it into reducing and scaling manufacturing of vehicles and batteries, I think they could probably win. Now maybe Telsa has looked at the numbers and decided they can't win and are choosing to pivot rather than die…

> Tesla + Panasonic has a built in advantage in terms of battery manufacturing. What advantage do they have over CATL, BYD, and LG? CATL batteries perform better: https://electrek.co/2026/01/06/catl-ev-batteries-significant... CATL is rolling out sodium ion batteries: https://electrek.co/2026/01/23/ev-battery-leader-plans-first... CATL, BYD, and LG are developing solid state batteries. Everyone is. > It is likely tha…

If Tesla has lost the advantage in battery tech, that is unfortunate and speaks poorly to Tesla's long term strategy. Reclaiming this lead would be an important strategic goal and I disagree with that not being prioritized.

> Why? Other robotics companies have been doing it for longer. Is Optimus better than Atlas:

Atlas costs about half a million dollars, targeting a price tag of $160,000 once mass produced, and assumes the user will be able to do some maintenance.

Optimus is targeting a price tag of $30,000, but probably costs around $80,000 to produce. It is plastic, it is cheap, it doesn't work.

Atlas is better than Optimus but all measures. The advantage of Optimus so far has been, the mass production-->usage until failure-->improvement cycles that are already underway. Tesla is, as an extremely high cost, slipping on every single banana peel first and this is clearing a path for other companies to learn what doesn't work when you switch from functional over-engineered robot to barely functional robots that can be mass produced.

Telsa isn't alone in this space, but they investing a lot and trying to cut corners. So much of engineering is learning the corners you can cut and the corners that cause a battery fire after 8 weeks of use.

Re: Tesla is committing automotive suicide

#390
post #209

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Plus people who buy cars are eating all the depreciation. I’ll glad buy your 2024 Corolla in 2032.

Are you sure about that? The sustainable operation of modern cars is in doubt, from very specialized parts and fully integrated modules, to critical software that will not be updated, to dealer keying required for most every substitute part, the era of anyone being able to run cars for 200,000 miles long after the warranty is over will soon be in the history books.

You say this like the average age and reliability of cars hasn't been skyrocketing for years.

Toyota offers a 10-year warranty on new cars, which would have been unthinkable 20 years ago.

You can't update the infotainment, but the engine controls have remained modular because it's simply too hard to convince people to buy truly unrepairable cars. Tesla did it, and once people realized that gently tapping a Model 3 was likely to total it resale values plummeted.

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